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GDP contracted 0.6% YoY in August. By productive sectors, the non-primary component contracted 1.9%, due to the decline in the construction sector and non-primary manufacturing. For its part, the primary component of GDP registered a growth of 4.5% due to increased fishing and mining production.
Considering the more favorable trend of private spending and households’ early access to private pension funds, output growth forecast for 2022 has been raised to 2,3%, while that for 2023 remains at 2,8% given that the deterioration of the external environment is expected to be offset by the recovery of mining production.
The Peruvian economy will grow 12,2% in 2021. Activity has been showing relatively favorable performance, a positive surprise. However, the deterioration of confidence will weaken this impulse looking forward and, together with lesser external …
We expect the Peruvian economy to grow 10% in 2021 and 4,8% next year, supported by a favourable external context. These forecasts are strongly conditioned to the maintenance of macroeconomic stability by the new government administration and l…
Output fell by 6,9% YoY in September. Available indicators for October suggest that the normalisation of economic activity has continued. Accelerating this process will require, among other things, both limiting sanitation and political uncerta…
In June, GDP went down by 18.1% YoY, reflecting the isolation measures implemented since mid-March in order to contain the spread of the coronavirus.
Lima's Consumer Price Index fell 0.27% m/m in June, a downside surprise for the market (Bloomberg Consensus: -0.10% m/m). With June's monthly result, year-on-year inflation slowed down to 1.6%, from 1.8% the previous month.
In April, GDP contracted by 40.5% YoY compared to the same month last year. Among the main components of GDP, the fall was almost general.
Peru is one of the hardest hit countries by COVID in Latin America, with the second highest number of cases per million and near the top in mortality as well. We estimate that the contagion rate has been declining in recent days, but need to wa…
The Board of the Central Bank decided to maintain the monetary policy rate at 0,25% in June. The Bank renewed its commitment to maintain a strongly expansive stance for a prolonged period and showed greater concern for inflation, estimating it …
Activity slowed at the beginning of the year due to the decline in public investment and mining production. Going forward, there will be a better performance .We continue foreseeing GDP will grow by 3.9% in 2019 supported by mining investment. However, in comparison with the previous report, now our forecast has a downward …
We forsee growth of 3.2% in 2018 and 3.5% for next year. The forecasts take into account a favourable international environment for Peru. On the domestic front we are assuming a calmer political scenario, a fiscal stimulus in 2018 and a commencement of the deficit reduction by the government next year.
