Peru GDP latest publications
The Peruvian economy will grow 12,2% in 2021. Activity has been showing relatively favorable performance, a positive surprise. However, the deterioration of confidence will weaken this impulse looking forward and, together with lesser external tailwinds, will result in a 2,3% growth of economic activity in 2022.
We expect the Peruvian economy to grow 10% in 2021 and 4,8% next year, supported by a favourable external context. These forecasts are strongly conditioned to the maintenance of macroeconomic stability by the new government administration and largely reflect a rebound after the sharp output contraction in 2020.
November 16, 2020
Peru | Normalisation of economic activity continues, surprising positively in September
Output fell by 6,9% YoY in September. Available indicators for October suggest that the normalisation of economic activity has continued. Accelerating this process will require, among other things, both limiting sanitation and political uncertainty and boosting public investment.
In June, GDP went down by 18.1% YoY, reflecting the isolation measures implemented since mid-March in order to contain the spread of the coronavirus.
Lima's Consumer Price Index fell 0.27% m/m in June, a downside surprise for the market (Bloomberg Consensus: -0.10% m/m). With June's monthly result, year-on-year inflation slowed down to 1.6%, from 1.8% the previous month.
In April, GDP contracted by 40.5% YoY compared to the same month last year. Among the main components of GDP, the fall was almost general.
Peru is one of the hardest hit countries by COVID in Latin America, with the second highest number of cases per million and near the top in mortality as well. We estimate that the contagion rate has been declining in recent days, but need to wait and see if the trend consolidates given the reopening of the economy.
The Board of the Central Bank decided to maintain the monetary policy rate at 0,25% in June. The Bank renewed its commitment to maintain a strongly expansive stance for a prolonged period and showed greater concern for inflation, estimating it will fall below the target range this year.