Publications

We analyze and explain China's recent main policy initiatives and the possible misunderstandings among global investors. We also evaluate their implications on the growth outlook.

Between 2018 and 2020, the population living in poverty increased by 7.3%, from 51.9 to 55.7 million inhabitants, and the population living in extreme poverty grew 24.1%, from 8.7 to 10.8 million. The increase in the population with a lack of access to health services stands out, which went from 16.2% to 28.2%.

Media stress, positively correlated with new infections, has eased off lately. Sectors’ stresses vary depending on their nature. Politics is the center of the debate. Media stress related to governments diminishes as they start lifting lockdown measures, but there is a bias between the international and the national one.

The ever-escalating trade war between the U.S. and China has become a "new normal" in the international trade scene. Since January 2018, the U.S. average import tariffs on Chinese goods have risen from 3 to 23 percent. Meanwhile, China's retaliatory import tariffs on U.S. goods rose from 7 to 24 percent.

Growth recovery is slowing down in Brazil. The deceleration in the world economy, as well as slow and limited progress in the local adoption of economic reforms –particularly in the social security- will limit the economy’s capacity for growth in the coming years. We expect GDP to grow 1.8% in both 2019 and 2020.

The Brazilian economy will grow 2.2% in 2019 and 1.8% in 2020, stimulated by factors such as the expansive tone of monetary policy and the increase in confidence. However, prospects for growth recovery are now less positive, mainly due to the view that the global environment will be less favorable than previously expected.

The formation of a new government in Spain and the current composition of Congress, where no party has a clear majority, has left Spaniards wanting the political parties to reach a consensus on the important issues of the day.

Hace pocos días el Senado brasileño aprobó el cese definitivo de Dilma Rousseff, dejando oficialmente el gobierno del país en manos del exvicepresidente Michel Temer, que venía ejerciendo esa función interinamente desde abril.