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Brazil: recovery prospects remain in place, despite weaker growth at the beginning of 2019
Growth recovery is slowing down in Brazil. The deceleration in the world economy, as well as slow and limited progress in the local adoption of economic reforms –particularly in the social security- will limit the economy’s capacity for growth in the coming years. We expect GDP to grow 1.8% in both 2019 and 2020.
The Brazilian economy will grow 2.2% in 2019 and 1.8% in 2020, stimulated by factors such as the expansive tone of monetary policy and the increase in confidence. However, prospects for growth recovery are now less positive, mainly due to the view that the global environment will be less favorable than previously expected.
Clinton increases lead in post-debate polls, including key swing states such as Florida, Colorado, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Low number of undecided voters and disparate views on the candidates underlie growing polarization. Our state-level vote-share model still projects a Democrat victory in Electoral College despite nationa…
The formation of a new government in Spain and the current composition of Congress, where no party has a clear majority, has left Spaniards wanting the political parties to reach a consensus on the important issues of the day.
Hace pocos días el Senado brasileño aprobó el cese definitivo de Dilma Rousseff, dejando oficialmente el gobierno del país en manos del exvicepresidente Michel Temer, que venía ejerciendo esa función interinamente desde abril.
Favorability of 2016 election candidates is historically low. Economic and market-based indicators continue to suggest Democrat win in November, although geopolitical turmoil and volatility has reduced the lead for Democrats in our national vote-share model.
Despite early success, Trump needs to sustain momentum in order to avoid a brokered convention. Rubio or Cruz present best chance for a Republican victory against Clinton. Current economic and market-based indicators suggest Democratic win in national election.