Publications

Formal employment in Mexico shows clear signs of deceleration, reflecting an adverse economic environment marked by domestic and global uncertainties. Although real wages have remained somewhat resilient, job creation faces significant pressures that negatively impact the total wage bill.

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator reported zero growth (0.0% MoM) in February; year-on-year (YoY) spending on point-of-sale terminals grew 11.1%, bringing the average for the first two months of the year to 13.0% (vs. 9.9% on average for 2024).

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator (BDCI) grew 1.0% MaM in December, its fifth consecutive growth since August 2024

This Observatory evaluates the factors explaining the cyclical behavior of GDP and private consumption in Spain up to Q2 2024. It analyzes the supply and demand factors behind the GDP per working-age person (PET) gap of -1.3 pp from its trend level and the weaker performance of consumption compared to pre-pandemic levels.

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator fell (-)3.4% MaM in November, taking the average monthly variation for 4Q22 to (-)1.2% (vs -0.7% in the first two months of 3Q22), with real figures seasonally adjusted.

In September, total consumption with BBVA cards fell 9.4% YoY in real terms. Most of the categories contracted their average real spending level per transaction, remaining below the pre-pandemic level. Our indicators point to a flattening of economic activity.

A monetary policy that carries the reference interest rate to an excessively restrictive terrain in a context where long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored can have counterproductive effects.

In August, consumption growth stabilized at levels similar to those observed in July, although below those of previous months. There was a weaker performance of goods consumption and a reduction in credit card spending. By city, Bogota maintained the best dynamics among the main cities.