Publications

Formal employment stagnated in June, closing Q2 with negative growth. This reflects weakness in key sectors, declining investment, and deteriorating expectations, all of which contribute to an adverse environment that could impede short-term labor market recovery.

Formal employment in Mexico shows clear signs of deceleration, reflecting an adverse economic environment marked by domestic and global uncertainties. Although real wages have remained somewhat resilient, job creation faces significant pressures that negatively impact the total wage bill.

In February, formal employment in Mexico slowed down due to uncertainty stemming from potential U.S. tariffs, negatively impacting business and consumer expectations. Nevertheless, real wages and the real wage bill continue to support consumption.

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator (BDCI) grew 1.0% MaM in December, its fifth consecutive growth since August 2024

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator reported an increase of 4.8% MoM in its services component, and a 3.0% MoM in the goods sector

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator fell (-)3.4% MaM in November, taking the average monthly variation for 4Q22 to (-)1.2% (vs -0.7% in the first two months of 3Q22), with real figures seasonally adjusted.

In August, total consumption with BBVA cards fell 2.9% YoY in real terms, thus returning to negative ground after July's increase. Most of the items contracted after the good performance they had had last month.

A monetary policy that carries the reference interest rate to an excessively restrictive terrain in a context where long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored can have counterproductive effects.