Private consumption latest publications
Total consumption rebounded after the drop at the end of May, although YoY growth is still negative. The level of spending so far in June is below that of the same period in 2020. Our indicators forecast a weak second quarter due to mobility restrictions.
Consumption improves its dynamics so far in June and is 13.2% above that recorded in the same period in 2019. Services show an important rebound and are once again above their pre-pandemic level, while consumption of goods slows down.
The recovery in private consumption will gain momentum as vaccination progresses, the EU recovery package (NGEU) starts to boost demand and households consolidate the absorption of excess savings. Consumer spending will grow by 6.1% in 2021 and 6.8% in 2022.
The tightening of sanitary measures at the end of May decreased consumption to April 2020 levels, affecting categories related to mobility and "non-essential" activities. A significant improvement in the level of Argentina's spending on the path towards the new normality is not yet visible.
Consumption in May was 2.2% higher than before the pandemic. The slowdown observed at the beginning of the month has been compensated by a better dynamic in the last few days. Goods are 22% above their pre-pandemic level, while services are 25% below this level.
Total consumption is slightly higher than in the same period a year ago (+0.5 percentage points). Consumption of goods rebounded slightly in the last week while consumption of services remained at low levels.
Household savings increased by a factor of 2.3 in 2020 as a result of the restrictions imposed by the epidemiological situation and the fear of contagion. Moving forward, the absorption of excess savings is a source of uncertainty that could mean an upward bias to short term growth.
The recent Hot Sale boosted spending levels in goods above pre-pandemic records after all items showed a contraction in consumption during April. Construction spending forecasts a slowdown in activity. The new wave of contagions impacts ATM withdrawals.