projections latest publications

May 21, 2020

Mexico | Scenarios of the effects on poverty due to the Covid-19 crisis

The estimates made by ECLAC, Coneval and BBVA Research are presented on the effect that the current crisis by Covid-19 can have on the increase in poverty and extreme poverty levels in Mexico in 2020.

April 15, 2020

Mexico | Covid-19 16th week projections: SIR b(t), ARIMA and International Comparative

Projections on the behavior of the total number of Covid-19 cases in Mexico for the 16th week of 2020, from April 15 to 19, are presented.

April 1, 2020

Remittances to Mexico could fall 17% in 2020 and recover between 2023-2028 due to Covid-19

Due to the uncertainty regarding its duration, it is difficult to estimate the impacts of the Covid-19 crisis on the flow of remittances to Mexico. This article makes an estimate based on the effects of the past global financial recession of 2008/2009 on remittance flows. Three scenarios are presented.

March 30, 2020

The Uncertain Economic Impact of the Pandemic

The enormous human cost of the coronavirus crisis is in addition to a considerable global economic impact, which will almost certainly lead to negative growth rates in most of the advanced economies.

March 18, 2020

China | Forecasting modeling for China's inflation

We are trying to assess a large group of forecasting models’ performance in predicting China’s inflation. Both linear and structural forecasting models are discussed, estimated and evaluated based on some typical criteria such as RMSE, MAE and Theil-U.

December 7, 2018

Colombia | Good Reasons for Forgetting Inflation

In recent weeks, I have had several meetings with investors, customers and analysts, and in each one, after an hour of talking, they have made me realize how few references I make to inflation. At the end, they'll say "OK, now tell us your thoughts on inflation."