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The COVID-19 pandemic caused the real estate market to collapse and led to a substantial change in the interests of the different players. Although housing prices fell significantly, demand is still very weak.
April 7, 2021
U.S. | CRE after Covid - crisis and reinvention, business as usual, or full steam ahead?
The fast economic recovery over the next few years will benefit commercial real estate greatly, but the structural challenges to some of its segments will remain and possibly intensify
Housing sales fell more in the Canary Islands than the Spanish average and have not recovered to their pre-pandemic level. The main reason is the reduction in foreign purchases, whose weight fell below 30% in the first 9 months of 2020. Meanwhile, prices fell by 0.9% in 2020, less than the average (-1.1%).
Despite the fall in GDP in 2H20 (-9.0% YoY), housing sales rose by 2.4% and mortgages by 5.1%. However, many of the factors supporting sales may be temporary. Towards the second half of the year, the sector could show a vigorous recovery. Its fundamentals are solid.
The sale of homes and the signing of permits suffered a notable correction during the months of confinement. This resulted in a drop in residential prices in 2Q20 and 3Q20, the first time since 2015. The correction could continue in 2021, although a recovery is possible towards the second half of the year.
The negative impact of the COVID-19 crisis is historic in the construction industry, already weakened by the recession of previous years. It is essential to boost supply and demand in order to recover the lost attractiveness of the real estate sector.
One issue that regularly comes up in the real estate market is knowing whether or not house prices are overvalued, especially when prices increase several quarters in a row. There's no easy answer, because it requires comparing the price with its equilibrium price.
The first known data from the real estate sector at the beginning of the confinement corroborate that Covid 19 has affected the sector. In March, home sales fell by 41% m/m, the highest since 2007. House prices fell for the first time in 21 quarters (-0.4% m/m) and residence permits decreased by 36% m/m.