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Economic growth will continue to support the dynamism of the real estate sector in the coming months. The decline in interest rates, the strength of the labor market, and positive net migration will sustain strong demand in 2025, although it is expected to decelerate in 2026 as a result of slower economic growth.

BBVA Research presents its new real estate sector report in two presentations: the first analyzes sales, supply, prices, rentals, and demographics; the second focuses on the structure of construction, financing, and sustainability. It includes sales projections, drivers, and trends through 2026.

Falling interest rates, the gradual recovery in the eurozone and a more positive demographic outlook are expected to boost residential demand, which in a context of relatively limited housing production will lead to house price growth in the current biennium.

This document aims to show the main causes behind the lower growth of housing prices in Spain, and most of its autonomous communities, compared to what has been observed in other developed economies that have faced the same macroeconomic scenario.

Housing demand will be restricted by the increase in interest rates and new housing production will remain at similar levels to 2019. Unlike in other countries, there are no price imbalances and the moderation in growth will come mainly from used housing.

After the COVID-19 crisis, construction rebounded and drove the economic recovery, but this dynamism was not replicated in the real estate market. The macroeconomic context makes access to housing more difficult. Due to the new demands, the office market faces new challenges.

The fast economic recovery over the next few years will benefit commercial real estate greatly, but the structural challenges to some of its segments will remain and possibly intensify

Housing sales fell more in the Canary Islands than the Spanish average and have not recovered to their pre-pandemic level. The main reason is the reduction in foreign purchases, whose weight fell below 30% in the first 9 months of 2020. Meanwhile, prices fell by 0.9% in 2020, less than the average (-1.1%).