Recession latest publications

June 12, 2019

U.S. Recession Risk Monitor. June 2019

Models suggest more than 70% probability of recession within the next 24 months. Shadow banking, business debt and risk appetite represent major red flags. Dovish Fed response has potential to negate downside risks in short-term.

March 29, 2019

U.S. Recession Risk Monitor. March 2019

Models suggest more than 50% probability of recession within the next 24 months. Global, housing and business debt represent major red flags. Fed’s strong dovish bias a response to risks. Markets digesting the balance between weaker outlook vs. lower expected interest rates. Economic fundamentals for households and financia…

February 7, 2019

Global Economic Risk Outlook. First quarter 2019

The balance of risks has deteriorated on the back of growth concerns in the US and China. A global trade war continues to be relevant despite the current truce, while a resurface of debt tensions in the Eurozone should not be ruled out yet due to high political instability. On a positive note, the U-turn in the Fed’s stance…

December 20, 2018

U.S. Recession Risk Monitor. December 2018

The probability of a recession is increasing. Correction in financial markets as participants adjust monetary policy and growth expectations. Treasury yield curve closer to inversion. Increase in corporate spreads highlight downside risks for nonfinancial businesses. Economic fundamentals for households and financial instit…

December 19, 2018

All things come to an end, but is the U.S. headed for recession?

Predicting a recession. Severity and duration of the next recession. Policy response.
  • Geography Tags
  • USA

October 15, 2018

U.S. Recession Risk Monitor. Fourth quarter 2018

The probability of an economic recession within the next 12 months remains low. Alternative models show increasing likelihood but also indicate relatively low probability. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative. However, a sharp correction in equities and corporate spreads is possible. Economic fundamentals for h…

September 27, 2018

U.S. | Just what the doctor ordered: real-time recession forecasts

Highly predictive financial and economic factors suggest recession risk remains low. However, these indicators are trending towards pre-recession peaks, implying a recession could happen around 2020.
  • Geography Tags
  • USA

April 28, 2016

U.S. | The financial stability mandate strikes back

Financial stability reemerged as a monetary policy objective after the Great Recession. Evidence suggests that the impact of financial variables on the macroeconomy is time-varying. The Federal Reserve has paid equal amount of attention to financial stability under both Yellen and Bernanke’s leadership
  • Geography Tags
  • USA