Recession latest publications

June 24, 2022

Mexico | Will there be a recession in the United States?

Recessions occur because the Fed's short-term interest rates determine the level of all rates in the economy: the Fed's rate hike implies higher rates for credit to companies, for mortgage loans and for consumer loans, etc.

March 16, 2022

Global | The war in Ukraine and the risks of stagflation

If second-round effects can be avoided through the necessary agreements, monetary and fiscal policy could still have sufficient room for maneuver to navigate its way through stagflation scenarios, and provide redistributive measures to minimize the impoverishment caused by the Ukraine war.

February 11, 2022

Mexico | The economy is stagnant; recovery suspended

After the deep economic contraction that Mexico experienced in the second quarter of 2020, a recovery process began in the third quarter of that year that continued until the second of last year.

May 27, 2021

U.S. | Small business openings in the Covid-19 recession

This brief compares increases in business formation statistics just after the start of the Covid-19 recession with underlying business conditions in order to describe the business landscape of the post-Covid economy

July 2, 2020

Mexico | Central Banks help, but they are not the solution

The world is experiencing the deepest recession in the last hundred years. The IMF estimates that the global economy will contract 4.9% in 2020. Many countries will have contractions in the second quarter of this year of between 30% and 40% at annualized rates.

April 23, 2020

Peru Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2020

Our forecasts have been revised to incorporate the macroeconomic impact on the Peruvian economy of the measures to contain the COVID-19 outbreak. As a result, we estimate that GDP will contract between 5% and 8% in 2020, with a downward bias. A significant rebound will take place next year.
  • Geography Tags
  • Peru

January 23, 2020

Global Economic Risk Outlook. First quarter 2020

This report presents an analysis of those global shocks, mostly of low probability, which may have a severe impact on the economy. Short-term risks have diminished on the back of easing trade tensions and interest rate cuts, but concerns on structural issues remain high (de-globalization and climate change).

December 23, 2019

Business and credit cycles, financial instability and recession triggers

The paper presents a quasi-historiographical or “narrative” analysis of the most critical developments occurring prior to and through the last nine recessions in light of Minsky’s theory of financial instability.