A year ago, most analysts predicted that the U.S. economy would enter a recession in 2023 due to the Fed's monetary policy rate hikes aimed at dealing with the inflation surge that occurred at the end of the most critical phase of the pandemic.
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Following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, over the past year, the perception that an economic recession was inevitable in the short term has built up. However, the signs of a recession are now few and far between.
The European Central Bank’s first meeting of the year was expected to be quiet and ‘business as usual’ despite the widely expected 50 basis point hikes in the benchmark interest rate. There were no surprises, but it is difficult for the central…
The crisis of 2022 has central banks striving to avoid the sins of the 1970s, fiscal policy resisting to avoid repeating the mistakes of 2009 and 2012, and the new international order trying to learn lessons from what happened 100 years ago.
Following a series of more aggressive 75 bp hikes at previous meetings, last week the ECB raised interest rates by just 50 bp, following in the footsteps the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. In doing so, it is trying to strike the right…
The European economy is slowly entering a long-overdue recession, expected almost since the war in Ukraine began, which may finally be taking place in the last months of the year. It is expected to be moderate and linked to factors that will take us back to more traditional economic cycles.
Today, as recession looms and inflation rears its head, we are likely to see a return to a somewhat gloomy housing market, even if house prices do not actually fall. But how hard will the adjustment be this time around?
With inflation at multi-decade highs across many countries due to various factors (pressures generated by the post-COVID recovery in spending, fiscal stimulus measures, bottlenecks) and exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, central banks have shif…
Monitoring and forecasting inflation in Europe in recent quarters has been a real headache for analysts, with continuous upward reviews due to a steady succession of unforeseen shocks that are not down to typical demand or oil price pressures.
Thursday’s ECB meeting was presented a priori with two points of interest on the table, aside from the 75 basis point rate hike which had been widely anticipated by markets and analysts thanks to a fairly direct communication from the central b…
At the meetings just held in Washington, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised strong concerns over the rampant levels of inflation, the interest rate hikes that may be needed to keep it in check and the risk to the financial system, which has long been accustomed to low rates.
The recession facing Europe and the United States, if not more countries, over the coming quarters is likely to be a quieter affair than other, deeper recessions seen in recent times. Ultimately, the current distortions within the economy are not as significant as in previous crises.