Recession latest publications

August 30, 2019

U.S. Recession Risk Monitor. August 2019

Models suggest 70% probability of recession within 24 months. Increased weakness in global growth. Policy uncertainty whipsawing with trade tensions. At times, key financial markets showing signs of panic-like conditions.

August 23, 2019

Colombia | The night is darker when we close our eyes

A possible recession in the US economy has led to a change in the language and direction of the monetary policy of major central banks around the world. The signals emitted by the global economy produced a risk scenario that was reflected in the purchase of safe-haven assets.

August 21, 2019

U.S. Economic Outlook. August 2019

Baseline growth forecast unchanged, but risks tilted to downside. Model-based recession projections suggest probability around 75% over the next 24-months. Mixed signals from labor market indicators. Downside risks to inflation moderating.
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  • USA

July 24, 2019

Global Economic Risk Outlook. Third quarter 2019

This report presents an analysis of those global shocks, most of low probability, which may have severe effects on the economy. The balance of risks continues to be tilted to the downside due to trade tensions (impact on China) and increasing probability of recession in the US.

July 1, 2019

The global respite turns the focus toward local risks

Just as current medicine cannot predict exactly when someone will suffer a stroke or cancer, economic science cannot predict precisely when the next recession, financial crisis or sovereign default will occur.

June 12, 2019

U.S. Recession Risk Monitor. June 2019

Models suggest more than 70% probability of recession within the next 24 months. Shadow banking, business debt and risk appetite represent major red flags. Dovish Fed response has potential to negate downside risks in short-term.

March 29, 2019

U.S. Recession Risk Monitor. March 2019

Models suggest more than 50% probability of recession within the next 24 months. Global, housing and business debt represent major red flags. Fed’s strong dovish bias a response to risks. Markets digesting the balance between weaker outlook vs. lower expected interest rates. Economic fundamentals for households and financia…

February 7, 2019

Global Economic Risk Outlook. First quarter 2019

The balance of risks has deteriorated on the back of growth concerns in the US and China. A global trade war continues to be relevant despite the current truce, while a resurface of debt tensions in the Eurozone should not be ruled out yet due to high political instability. On a positive note, the U-turn in the Fed’s stance…