Republican latest publications
As we predicted, Biden won the 2020 presidential election. Gains among non-college educated white men edged Biden to victory in swing states despite a lower margin of victory among non-whites.
Motivating disaffected voters in key swing states could determine the election. Preliminary data suggests Democrats have commanding lead in early mail-in voting. Available early in-person voting shows Republicans have an edge.
President’s approval ratings continue recovering, but remain below pre-Covid levels. With most states taking steps to accommodate the Covid-19 crisis, 78% of voters will have the option to cast an absentee ballot without any limitation.
The 2020 presidential election will be highly influenced by the health crisis, the economic recession, polarization and microtargeting. Based on polling data and in-house models, the Democrats are the odds-on-favorite to win the Presidency and the House, and could possibly flip the Senate.
Seven candidates qualified for the Democratic debate on 12/19. Party nomination starts with Iowa Caucus on February 3, 2020. Super Tuesday on March 3; over 50% of delegates by end of March.