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June 12, 2019

U.S. Recession Risk Monitor. June 2019

Models suggest more than 70% probability of recession within the next 24 months. Shadow banking, business debt and risk appetite represent major red flags. Dovish Fed response has potential to negate downside risks in short-term.

March 29, 2019

U.S. Recession Risk Monitor. March 2019

Models suggest more than 50% probability of recession within the next 24 months. Global, housing and business debt represent major red flags. Fed’s strong dovish bias a response to risks. Markets digesting the balance between weaker outlook vs. lower expected interest rates. Economic fundamentals for households and financia…

January 30, 2019

U.S. Recession Risk Monitor. January 2019

The probability of a recession steadies after sharp rise at the end of 2018. Financial markets adjusts to dovish monetary policy shift and stable growth outlook. Fiscal policy risk increasing with divided White House and Congress. Pressures on corporate spreads ease, as perception of near-term downside risks decline.

December 20, 2018

U.S. Recession Risk Monitor. December 2018

The probability of a recession is increasing. Correction in financial markets as participants adjust monetary policy and growth expectations. Treasury yield curve closer to inversion. Increase in corporate spreads highlight downside risks for nonfinancial businesses. Economic fundamentals for households and financial instit…

October 15, 2018

U.S. Recession Risk Monitor. Fourth quarter 2018

The probability of an economic recession within the next 12 months remains low. Alternative models show increasing likelihood but also indicate relatively low probability. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative. However, a sharp correction in equities and corporate spreads is possible. Economic fundamentals for h…

April 30, 2018

Global debt - Is history repeating itself?

2018 started with the expectation that this time around the world economy really would be able to chalk up a second consecutive year of solid growth and successfully navigate through two of its main hazards: US monetary normalisation and China’s slowdown.

November 8, 2017

Perspectivas América Latina

El crecimiento mundial continúa robusto e incluye a más regiones. Se recupera el crecimiento en América Latina, pero sera aún lento en 2017 y 2018. En Brasil, la recuperación cíclica sigue en marcha, impulsada por las exportaciones y el consumo. En Argentina, el triunfo del oficialismo en las últimas elecciones aleja el fan…

May 8, 2017

Tracking chinese vulnerability in real time using Big Data

We develop an indicator to track vulnerability sentiment in China. In order to ensure robustness and depth, we use a combination of traditional macroeconomic and financial time series with textual analysis using Big Data techniques.The index is composed by the following dimensions: state owned enterprises; shadow banking; h…