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    July 11, 2023

    China | 2023 RMB Exchange Rate Outlook

    RMB to USD exchange rate has cumulatively depreciated by 8% in 2023, amid expectation change of the US FED hike path. Look forward, we predict RMB to go back to around 7-7.1 at end-2023 and 6.7 at end-2024.

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    May 17, 2022

    China | 2022 RMB outlook: getting worse before it gets better

    A series of global and domestic macro fundamentals drove recent sharp RMB depreciation. We do not think it will lead to systematic financial instability risk as it is synchronized with depreciation of other currencies amid FED tightening measures. The PBoC has counter-cyclical tools to maintain the RMB exchange rate stable.

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    May 3, 2022

    China | RMB exchange rate sharp depreciation amid dive…

    We analyze the underlying macro reasons behind the recent RMB exchange rate sharp depreciation and explain our forecast of RMB till year end.

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    July 6, 2021

    China | Currency Outlook in 2H21: Two-way fluctuation …

    We provide a macro analytical framework to investigate what determines the RMB exchange rate trend in 2H21. RMB exchange rate is expected go back to the 6.4 to 6.5 range at end-2021 and will display two-way fluctuations.

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    February 1, 2021

    China | Understanding RMB exchange rate cycle

    This report is trying to answer the three questions: What is the underlying logic of the ongoing RMB appreciation trend? Is the trend sustainable as the global economy normalizes? And where will the RMB exchange rate go at end-2021?

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    March 4, 2020

    Lessons from China’s past banking bailouts

    China’s banking sector, particularly small and medium-sized banks, today face a headwind of asset quality deterioration. Revisiting Chinese bank rescues from the early 2000s, we examine how the authorities tackled a severe rise in non-performing loans (NPLs).

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    February 5, 2016

    Hong Kong | Will the city abandon its decades-old peg to the USD?

    A number of hedge funds have shifted their attention to Hong Kong Dollar (HKD), speculating on the possibility of the currency abandoning its decades-old peg to the USD. It has led the HKD to soften against the USD and raised the interbank interest rate. However, we believe that HKD de-pegging is an unlikely scenario for a …

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    December 7, 2015

    The renminbi as a benchmark currency

    On 30 November the International Monetary Fund (FMI) announced its decision to include China’s currency (the renminbi, RMB) in its basket of benchmark currencies, which is used to determine the value of special drawing rights (SDRs).

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