RMB to USD exchange rate has cumulatively depreciated by 8% in 2023, amid expectation change of the US FED hike path. Look forward, we predict RMB to go back to around 7-7.1 at end-2023 and 6.7 at end-2024.
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A series of global and domestic macro fundamentals drove recent sharp RMB depreciation. We do not think it will lead to systematic financial instability risk as it is synchronized with depreciation of other currencies amid FED tightening measures. The PBoC has counter-cyclical tools to maintain the RMB exchange rate stable.
We analyze the underlying macro reasons behind the recent RMB exchange rate sharp depreciation and explain our forecast of RMB till year end.
We provide a macro analytical framework to investigate what determines the RMB exchange rate trend in 2H21. RMB exchange rate is expected go back to the 6.4 to 6.5 range at end-2021 and will display two-way fluctuations.
This report is trying to answer the three questions: What is the underlying logic of the ongoing RMB appreciation trend? Is the trend sustainable as the global economy normalizes? And where will the RMB exchange rate go at end-2021?
China’s banking sector, particularly small and medium-sized banks, today face a headwind of asset quality deterioration. Revisiting Chinese bank rescues from the early 2000s, we examine how the authorities tackled a severe rise in non-performing loans (NPLs).
A number of hedge funds have shifted their attention to Hong Kong Dollar (HKD), speculating on the possibility of the currency abandoning its decades-old peg to the USD. It has led the HKD to soften against the USD and raised the interbank interest rate. However, we believe that HKD de-pegging is an unlikely scenario for a …
On 30 November the International Monetary Fund (FMI) announced its decision to include China’s currency (the renminbi, RMB) in its basket of benchmark currencies, which is used to determine the value of special drawing rights (SDRs).