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Even though inflation forecasts were revised upwards, the tone of the monetary policy minutes was not hawkish. The Copom refrained from signalling that either a tightening or an easing of monetary conditions is imminent. Hence, the minutes reinforced the view that the Selic rate will remain unchanged for some further time (…

The monetary policy minutes revealed that the COPOM is now seeing inflation converging to 4.5% in 2016, which explains its decision to leave the Selic unchanged at 14.25%. However, it highlighted that some upside risks (mainly fiscal policy deterioration and exchange rate depreciation) require the monetary authority to rema…

The minutes of last week's monetary policy meeting suggest that the tightening cycle is not over yet. According to the COPOM, the efforts to drive inflation down to 4.5% by the end of 2016 are "still not sufficient" and therefore monetary poli…

The minutes of last week's monetary policy meeting in which the SELIC rate was hiked by 50bp to 11.75% show that the plan of the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) is to take inflation back to the 4.5% target by 2016. To do so the monetary autho…

In its last meeting in 2014, the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) decided to hike the SELIC rate by 50bp to 11.75%. The move surprised part of the market -including us- which expected a 25bp increase, same pace as in the previous meeting. In s…

The minutes of last week's monetary policy meeting, in which the BCB hiked the SELIC by 25bp to 11.25%, suggested that not only the exchange rate but also the tone of fiscal policy and the pressures coming from administered prices will determine the pace and the final magnitude of the monetary tightening cycle that started …

The minutes of last week's monetary policy meeting brought no exciting news. The messages included in the previous official communication suggesting the SELIC rate will remain at 11.0% for some time were maintained unchanged. However, it is worth noting that the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) now sees lower inflationary …

As at its two previous meetings, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) unanimously decided to leave the Selic rate unchanged at 11.0%. In addition, the slight adjustment in the accompanying statement reinforced the perspectives that policy rat…

As widely expected, the monetary authority announced yesterday after financial markets closed in Brazil that policy rates will remain at 11%. We expect the BCB to maintain the SELIC rate at the current level at least until the end of the year. …