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There is good news for the European Central Bank (ECB) thanks to the clear reduction of inflationary pressures, led by the slowdown in the prices of industrial goods, energy and food — and, to a lesser extent, by services, which still show a very persistent behavior.
Benefited by falling prices, especially energy ones, and lower interest rates, the Spanish economy is holding up better than expected. The distribution of regional growth is centered on the touristic regions and/or the ones producing high value-added services, which will lead the growth.
Although energy and borrowing costs may be falling, businesses will have other challenges to contend with in 2024, including the risk of changes in labor regulation and taxation.
Since 2008, private consumption in real terms has failed to keep up with output. Notably, its share in GDP has fallen from 60.7% in 2008 to 56.5% in 2022.
In recent months, inflation has shown signs of moderation in most countries, both developed and emerging, but there is still a ways to go before it reaches pre-pandemic levels.
The Spanish economy presents a strange case in which growth and stagnation coexist. This is due to the divergence in the trends shown by services on the one hand, and industry, agriculture and residential construction on the other.
Services decelerate and industry falls in 2019. Foreign Direct Investment in the Southeast, USMCA will boost Bajío and North.
