Publications

Amid the China-US trade war, we still raised our China 2025 and 2026 GDP forecast due to the jumbo size stimulus package, the new growth engine high-end manufacturing to support growth and lower-than-expected tariff imposed.

In this paper, we analyze what could go wrong in implementing the current jumbo size stimulus package to the Chinese economy and how to avoid these traps.

Amid the weak economic activities in the past years, the authorities have promulgated a large size stimulus package to support growth that the market views as "China's Draghi moment" or "Chinese style QE".

There are some positive signals in August activity indicators, suggesting the economy might have passed the worst amid a series of recent policy support.

Chinese authorities not only prioritized economic growth in 2022 but also promulgated a series of stimulus measures in monetary and fiscal perspectives with actions.