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The recent resilience of activity does not imply that the economic scenario for next year will be any better. In fact, it will most likely complicate the outlook for 2024.

The Covid-19 flare-up in Shanghai has deteriorated very fast recently. China’s authorities are still embracing their “Zero Covid” strategy. Although it remains an open question whether Shanghai can win this uphill battle, we are certain that China’s authorities won’t capitulate to the Omicron variant any time soon.