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Tariffs latest publications

June 6, 2019

Mexico | Faced with Trump, Mexico needs rule of law and to revive Texcoco

In what would be an act contrary the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, President Donald Trump has announced that he will impose tariffs on all imports from Mexico.

May 31, 2019

Mexico | Trump’s Tariff Threat has the potential to be a game changer for Mexican Economy

Incremental tariffs (up to 25%) would likely push the Mexican economy into a recession; inflation risks, an overly hawkish Banxico and fiscal constraints would limit the room for countercyclical fiscal and/or monetary policies.

May 13, 2019

Closer to a trade war?

At BBVA Research we estimate that a tariff increase to 25% could bring Chinese GDP down 0.5 pp from our base scenario, in which China grows by around 6% in 2019. The impact on the other two trading blocks will be less severe, around 0.2 pp in the United States and 0.1 pp in the eurozone.

July 30, 2018

What weapons does China have in the trade war?

The trade war between China and the USA finally broke out on 6 July, when the US imposed 25% tariffs on US$34 billion worth of imports from China, to which China responded by applying the same tariff to the value of imports from the US.

April 16, 2018

China, trade war with the US?

There are concerns that the protectionist rhetoric and the so far limited tariff increases may lead to a full-blown trade war between the US and China which could put the brakes on world growth.