Publications

We integrate our findings in export concentration, value added in exports, and economic complexity for Türkiye and Mexico. While both countries have increased their complexity through time, targeted fiscal incentives directed towards competitive industries may help attain more complex products in exports.

As of 1Q24, Mexican exports totaled 144 billion dollars and imports totaled 146 billion dollars. 82.7% of Mexican´s exports went to the US and manufacturing exports totaled 127.1 billion dollars, 88.5% of the total. FDI as of 1Q24 amounted 20.3 billion dollars, 13.6% lower than 1Q23.

BBVA Research and the Mexican Association of Private Industrial Parks (AMPIP) conducted a survey to quantify and anticipate the effects of nearshoring in Mexico. Results assert the interest of companies to operate in Mexico and anticipate more firms to arrive within the next couple of years.

Türkiye is integrated along the GVCs with strong backward and forward linkages, while searching for new opportunities in international trade. We devise an export diversification strategy to detect products and sectors that could be attained with Türkiye’s know-how and provide higher value added in trade.

Imports have been less affected by COVID-19 than expected. In the first half of the year, the adjustment shifted to goods produced within the country and, to a lesser extent, on purchases from the rest of the world. Similarly, during the recovery process, the momentum of imports is proving to be more moderate.

In November, real good exports and imports behaved slightly better than pointed by central forecasts. Nevertheless, the accumulated deficit in the trade balance grew despite the improvement in the energy balance.

Both real exports and imports of goods recovered in September, closing the third quarter in positive territory. The accumulated trade balance deficit slightly increased again, despite the reduction of the energy bill

China and Greece face the worsening of their growth expectations. Given the low importance of trade flows with both countries, the effect of these shocks on the spanish economy will be limited. If these shocks become a significant downturn in global trade flows or trigger an uncertainty increase in financial markets, the impact on Spanish economy would be greater.