trade tensions latest publications
Probability of recession in 12 months at one-year lows (30%). Financial conditions remain solid after Fed “mid-cycle” adjustment. Strong household finances supporting consumption.
The outlook in Latin America in recent weeks has been marked by general elections in Argentina, Bolivia and Uruguay. This is in addition to extensive protests in Ecuador and Chile.
Mexico’s Banking and Securities Commission (CNBV), publishes its financial access report. New Digital Collection Scheme (CoDi) comes into operation. 1H19 saw the national producer price index in the construction sector grow by 3.1%. Expectations of lower commercial tensions support risk assets.
Models suggest 70% probability of recession within 24 months. Increased weakness in global growth. Policy uncertainty whipsawing with trade tensions. At times, key financial markets showing signs of panic-like conditions.
Personal loans slow down, with lower average origination figures and higher interest rates in 2019. The share of customers who pay in full each month has grown in both the number of credit cards and the balance of credit granted. Banks granted better conditions for auto loans in 2018.
Economic data and news this summer in Europe are disappointing; especially for the signs of vulnerability of the more open economies following the slight fall in production in Germany and the fading expectations that the main risks would diminish in the second half of the year.
In the 2Q18 global investment funds registered outflows for the first time since 2016. The reversal –driven by tighter global financing and growing concerns on trade- has remained mild and controlled thanks to solid economic growth. It was especially strong in EM. Investor sentiment has veered from risk-on to risk-off mood…