trade war latest publications
The eurozone slowed somewhat more than expected in Q4 of last year, with growth shrinking to 0.1% in the quarter. Looking at individual countries, the biggest surprises were the contraction in activity in Italy (-0.3% QoQ) and France (-0.1% QoQ) and the stagnation of the German economy.
Christine Lagarde sets off her mandate at the head of the European Central Bank (ECB) with an ambitious goal: completing a review of the monetary policy — the framework that guides the decisions to fulfill her mandate.
In 2019 as a whole, and in the midst of trade tensions with the US, China grew by 6.1%. This represents half a point less than in 2018, close to the lower-end of the official growth target range of 6–6.5%, representing the lowest on record since 1990.
This report presents an analysis of those global shocks, mostly of low probability, which may have a severe impact on the economy. Short-term risks have diminished on the back of easing trade tensions and interest rate cuts, but concerns on structural issues remain high (de-globalization and climate change).
The two recurring themes that have determined the course of the global economy and represented the greatest sources of uncertainty in 2019 have been protectionist tensions and the threat of a no-deal Brexit.
The Spanish economy ends the second decade of the 21st century with a GDP growth rate close to its potential and an unemployment rate of 14.3%. During the last three quarters of 2019, GDP has grown at an annualized quarterly rate of 1.6%.
Europe's economic situation is stabilizing following several quarters of deterioration caused by the uncertainties surrounding world trade and Brexit. It seems that there is chance of improvement and that the risk of recession has reduced.
Three-parts accommodation, one-part trade détente baked into 2020 outlook, but is it enough to avoid a downturn? Fed's Art of War: Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt.