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The 2020 presidential election will be highly influenced by the health crisis, the economic recession, polarization and microtargeting. Based on polling data and in-house models, the Democrats are the odds-on-favorite to win the Presidency and the House, and could possibly flip the Senate.
In 2019 as a whole, and in the midst of trade tensions with the US, China grew by 6.1%. This represents half a point less than in 2018, close to the lower-end of the official growth target range of 6–6.5%, representing the lowest on record since 1990.
Mexico, Canada and US have reached an agreement to renew the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) entered into 25 years ago and which president Donald Trump promised to renegotiate during his electoral campaign. It's important to remember that an understanding had already been reached in December of last year.
October 24, 2019
Mexico | Challenges and opportunities in the current context of greater protectionism
At the end of the Second World War a consensus was forged between the advanced economies of the world, led by the U.S., around the idea of seeking a world without barriers to trade in goods and services and capital flows. Thus, for decades, the United States adopted a policy of trade opening and promotion of global trade.
The ever-escalating trade war between the U.S. and China has become a "new normal" in the international trade scene. Since January 2018, the U.S. average import tariffs on Chinese goods have risen from 3 to 23 percent. Meanwhile, China's retaliatory import tariffs on U.S. goods rose from 7 to 24 percent.
Central banking forums are particularly interesting, providing as they do an environment where one can take a step back from the volatile present and, even more importantly, take perspective and ask oneself where it is that we are heading.
One situation that is often used in works of fiction is the existence of an underlying, unresolved tension between two of the characters, let’s say dealing with feelings, which goes on to affect the development of the plot.
There are two major sources of uncertainty regarding the Mexican economy: the outcome of the NAFTA negotiations, and the doubts that always surround presidential elections. How are these factors affecting the peso?