Publications

Amid rising global uncertainty, trade tensions with the United States are resurfacing. As background, in 2018 the EU responded to Trump's tariffs by imposing levies of 25% on more than 180 products. This had a lasting effect on the pattern of Spanish imports, although the overall economic impact remained limited.

In May 2025, remittances to Mexico fell 4.6 % compared to the same month of the last year, to 5,360 million dollars. In contrast, remittances to Guatemala (2,281 million, +15.2 %), Honduras (1,055 million, +19.1 %), and El Salvador (899 million, +17.7 %) reached record highs.

The tariff hikes being pushed through by the United States since the start of Donald Trump's second term are genuinely unprecedented. Not in the last century have we witnessed such a sudden and erratic shift in trade policiy implemented within such a short space of time.

The proposed 3.5% tax on remittances in the United States would increase the cost of sending 350 dollars from 5 to 17.25 dollars, representing an increase of nearly 250%. This sharp increase could spur the growth of multiple informal and unregulated channels for sending remittances.

Spain has led EU growth since the start of the war in Ukraine. However, weak growth in Europe, persistent geopolitical tensions, and erratic U.S. trade policy overshadow the outlook.

The dollar's recent fall has reignited the debate about the possible end of its hegemony in the global financial architecture. A question that has once again fed an old European desire: for the euro to consolidate its position as a reserve currency and safe haven.

The temporary suspension of some of the measures has brought relief, but Europe and Spain have taken the opportunity to outline their strategy for addressing the increase in trade barriers and potentially more-negative scenarios.

How the World feels about Trump: Using Artificial Intelligente techniques to understand how the “ World feels Trump” From Text to Numbers.