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Preliminary results from the 2020 general election map a trajectory in which Democrats have narrowly flipped the “blue wall” states which went to Trump in 2016 and created a buffer by winning Nevada, Arizona and Georgia.
The 2020 presidential election will be highly influenced by the health crisis, the economic recession, polarization and microtargeting. Based on polling data and in-house models, the Democrats are the odds-on-favorite to win the Presidency and the House, and could possibly flip the Senate.
In 2019 as a whole, and in the midst of trade tensions with the US, China grew by 6.1%. This represents half a point less than in 2018, close to the lower-end of the official growth target range of 6–6.5%, representing the lowest on record sinc…
Mexico, Canada and US have reached an agreement to renew the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) entered into 25 years ago and which president Donald Trump promised to renegotiate during his electoral campaign. It's important to remembe…
At the end of the Second World War a consensus was forged between the advanced economies of the world, led by the U.S., around the idea of seeking a world without barriers to trade in goods and services and capital flows. Thus, for decades, the…
The ever-escalating trade war between the U.S. and China has become a "new normal" in the international trade scene. Since January 2018, the U.S. average import tariffs on Chinese goods have risen from 3 to 23 percent. Meanwhile, China's retaliatory import tariffs on U.S. goods rose from 7 to 24 percent.
Central banking forums are particularly interesting, providing as they do an environment where one can take a step back from the volatile present and, even more importantly, take perspective and ask oneself where it is that we are heading.
One situation that is often used in works of fiction is the existence of an underlying, unresolved tension between two of the characters, let’s say dealing with feelings, which goes on to affect the development of the plot.
There are two major sources of uncertainty regarding the Mexican economy: the outcome of the NAFTA negotiations, and the doubts that always surround presidential elections. How are these factors affecting the peso?
This week sees the start of the sixth round of renegotiations of the North American Free Trade Agreement of NAFTA in Canada. According to members of the Mexican negotiating team, previous rounds have seen significant progress in a number of are…
The FOMC is poised to undergo a nontrivial change in leadership and composition with four new regional Fed members rotating into voting roles and with a potential change in leadership. There are also three additional governor’s seats and potentially four vacancies –depending if Chair Yellen stays– that President Trump could…
Trump’s arrival has meant a change of tone in the discourse around financial regulation. The severe restrictions imposed by Obama on the banking sector in response to the profound international financial crisis are now a thing of the past.
