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The CBRT signals to remain tight as long as needed, while new fiscal measures signal that the policy mix will be more coordinated. Considering the lagged impact of policies, we believe macro-prudential measures to contain still solid consumption would be needed.

Turkish Economy contracted by 3.0% yoy in 4Q18, slightly worse than expectations (-2.5% median vs. -2.2% BBVA Research). The economy technically entered into a recession as the QoQ contraction became deeper with -2.4% after -1.6% in 3Q18. We maintain GDP growth forecast at 1% for 2019 as recent impulses and base effects in …

Consumer inflation recorded 0.99% (mom) in March, in line with the market expectation (1%) but higher than ours (0.75%) on the discrepancy due to surprising food inflation.Recent exchange rate depreciation, upward risks on growth and high inert…

GDP grew by 7.3% (YoY) in 4Q17 above both the market consensus and our expectation (6.7%). The upward revision of the first three quarters and stronger than expected Q4 resulted in 7.4% yoy growth in 2017 (3.2% in 2016).We maintain our expectat…

Industrial production in July grew by 14.5% yoy (cal.adj.). Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 5.1% GDP growth for 2Q and hints even higher performance for 3Q. Considering also an acceleration in 3Q with both base …

In August, consumer prices rose by 0.52%, higher than the consensus (0.1%) and even our estimate (0.3%). FX pass-through mostly on the recent appreciation of Euro, second round price effects and spill-overs from the narrowing output gap continued to be the factors behind. We expect the headline to stay close to 11% before i…

Industrial production (IP) grew by 3.5% in May (calendar adjusted, YoY), signaling that economic activity maintains its momentum in 2Q17. Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY index at Bloomberg) also confirms this with a growth rate close to 5% YoY by June (with 26% information so far).

Recovery in IP continues with the support from both exporting and domestic demand oriented sectors. We expect the GDP growth in 2Q to accelerate even further, as early signals from May suggest a growth rate close to 6%. Turkish lira stabilized…

Annual consumer inflation marginally fell for the first time after 6 months to 11.7% from 11.9% in April. Core inflation remained stable at 9.4% despite the ongoing exchange rate pass-through. We expect the headline to fall towards 11-11.5% ban…

GDP growth continues in moderate pace. Food inflation keeps the headline high but it will ease somehow in summer. CBT continues to fund mostly on LLW, keeping the average funding just below 12%.

The Central Bank reduced the upper bound of its interest rate corridor 25bps further to 8.75% and kept the lower bound of the interest rate corridor and the 1-week repo constant at 7.25% and 7.50% respectively. The decision was in line with the analyst expectations which had declined from the previous 50bps to a 25bps reduc…

IP grew by 5.6% (WDA YoY) in May, beating the consensus estimate (4.1%). April-May production and demand side data pointed at a modest slowdown economic activity in 2Q16 especially in ex-auto items, partly confirming the earlier easing signals from the confidence indicators. We expect some moderation ahead but we maintain o…