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Turkish economy latest publications

March 11, 2019

Turkey | Sharp adjustment of domestic demand in 2018

Turkish Economy contracted by 3.0% yoy in 4Q18, slightly worse than expectations (-2.5% median vs. -2.2% BBVA Research). The economy technically entered into a recession as the QoQ contraction became deeper with -2.4% after -1.6% in 3Q18. We maintain GDP growth forecast at 1% for 2019 as recent impulses and base effects in …

April 4, 2018

Turkey | Sticky Inflation

Consumer inflation recorded 0.99% (mom) in March, in line with the market expectation (1%) but higher than ours (0.75%) on the discrepancy due to surprising food inflation.Recent exchange rate depreciation, upward risks on growth and high inertia (backward and forward looking) obviously create upside risks for our year end …

April 3, 2018

Turkey | GDP grew 7.4% in 2017

GDP grew by 7.3% (YoY) in 4Q17 above both the market consensus and our expectation (6.7%). The upward revision of the first three quarters and stronger than expected Q4 resulted in 7.4% yoy growth in 2017 (3.2% in 2016).We maintain our expectation that GDP growth may normalize to 4.5% in 2018 due to tightening financial con…

September 8, 2017

Turkey: Activity accelerates further

Industrial production in July grew by 14.5% yoy (cal.adj.). Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 5.1% GDP growth for 2Q and hints even higher performance for 3Q. Considering also an acceleration in 3Q with both base impact and enhanced activity, we believe that the risks on our 5% GDP growth expe…

September 5, 2017

Inflation: Outlook worsens on core dynamics

In August, consumer prices rose by 0.52%, higher than the consensus (0.1%) and even our estimate (0.3%). FX pass-through mostly on the recent appreciation of Euro, second round price effects and spill-overs from the narrowing output gap continued to be the factors behind. We expect the headline to stay close to 11% before i…

July 14, 2017

Turkey: May IP hints a more balanced outlook

Industrial production (IP) grew by 3.5% in May (calendar adjusted, YoY), signaling that economic activity maintains its momentum in 2Q17. Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY index at Bloomberg) also confirms this with a growth rate close to 5% YoY by June (with 26% information so far).

July 4, 2017

Turkey Monthly Economic Monitor | June

Recovery in IP continues with the support from both exporting and domestic demand oriented sectors. We expect the GDP growth in 2Q to accelerate even further, as early signals from May suggest a growth rate close to 6%. Turkish lira stabilized at 3.50-3.55 band as global and local factors balance each other and the CBRT m…

June 5, 2017

Turkey Inflation: Worst is over but it’s early for complacency

Annual consumer inflation marginally fell for the first time after 6 months to 11.7% from 11.9% in April. Core inflation remained stable at 9.4% despite the ongoing exchange rate pass-through. We expect the headline to fall towards 11-11.5% band in June and remain at double digits before falling to 9% at the year-end.