Publications

Here are all of our publications listed chronologically. You can also find the publications relating to single geography under “Publications by geography” or narrow down your search using the “Advanced filter”.

Latest publications on Türkiye GDP

Türkiye | A Challenging 2025, Yet 3.6% GDP Growth

March 3, 2026

The Turkish economy grew by 3.4% y/y in 4Q25, bringing full-year 2025 GDP growth to 3.6%, slightly below our 3.7% forecast. While tighter financial conditions might pose downside risks -depending on the duration and the scope of the conflict in Iran- we maintain our 2026 GDP growth forecast at 4% for the time being.

Türkiye | 2025 GDP Growth could be 3.5%

February 19, 2026

Hard data show a faster deceleration in 4Q25, suggesting an annual GDP growth of around 3% and implying modest downside risk on our 3.7% forecast for 2025. We keep our 2026 GDP growth forecast at 4%, but evaluate risks might turn upside given the easing bias of the CBRT and our expectation of a neutral fiscal balance.

Türkiye| Absence of significant cooling down in activity

December 1, 2025

Türkiye’s economy grew by 3.7% y/y in the first three quarters of the year. Growth in 2025 is highly likely to align with our 3.7% forecast, while for 2026 we maintain our 4% growth forecast, considering the expected easing cycle, neutral fiscal stance , carry over impact and resilience expectation in the global economy.

Türkiye | The economy grew by 4.5% in 2023

February 29, 2024

Turkish economy grew by 4.0% y/y in 4Q23 (vs. 3.6% exp. and consensus), leading to an overall GDP growth of 4.5% in 2023. We maintain our 2024 GDP growth forecast of 3.5%, for which we envisage pre-election fiscal impulse and expected capital inflows will be supportive.

Türkiye | GDP grew by 5.9% y/y in 3Q

November 30, 2023

Turkish economy grew by 5.9% y/y in 3Q, above the market consensus of 5.3% but parallel to our expectation of 6%. We expect GDP growth rate to be 4.5% in 2023 but decelerate to 3.5% in 2024 with a bias to the downside.

Türkiye | Weaker production with still strong demand

September 1, 2023

Turkish economy grew by 3.8% in 2Q23 in annual terms slightly above the market consensus of 3.5% (vs. our expectation of 4.5%), which corresponds to 5% GDP growth if the calendar day adjustment is made. We expect GDP growth to materialize in the range of 4% to 4.5% with a high probability.

Türkiye | Strong acceleration in 2Q

August 11, 2023

Industrial production (IP) increased by 1.6% m/m in seasonal and calendar adjusted series, resulting in the 2.3% q/q acceleration of activity in 2Q (vs. 0.5% q/q in 1Q). We expect GDP growth to be 4.5% in 2023 thanks to the strong growth pattern in 1H23, especially considering the soft landing scenario.

Türkiye | Activity led by prevailing strong demand

July 13, 2023

Industrial production (IP) decreased by 0.2% y/y in cal. adj. series while unadjusted figure increased by 11.3% in May. We forecast GDP growth to be 4.5% in 2023, led by expected gradual normalization steps in monetary policy, whereas the growth in 2024 will depend on the stance of policies against inflation.

Türkiye | The economy grew 4% in 1Q23

June 1, 2023

Turkish economy grew by 4% y/y in 1Q23 in line with market expectation (vs. 3.9% consensus and 4.3% ours). Assuming no sharp normalization in economic policies ahead of local election in 2024, we expect GDP growth to be in the range of 4-5% in 2023 on the current strong momentum and expected loose policies.

Türkiye | Post-quake recovery in activity

May 12, 2023

Industrial production (IP) rapidly recovered in March increasing by 5.5% m/m (1.8% m/m cons.), mostly wiping out the impact from the earthquakes. Recent better than forecasted momentum and potential continuation of populist policies after elections put upside risk on our 2023 growth forecast of 3%.

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