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Activity indicators signaled the continuation of weakness till late Dec22 but starting from thereafter early figures indicate the reversal of the recent deceleration. We forecast 5-5.5% GDP growth in 2022 and a very strong start to the year with near 2% q/q growth rate in 1Q23. We expect GDP growth to be 3% in 2023.

Industrial production (IP) surprised to the upside and grew 2.5% y/y in October (vs. 0.1% expected). Though, weaker activity in 4Q so far puts slight downward risk on our 2022 GDP forecast of 5.5%. We forecast 3% GDP growth in 2023 with expected solid performance in the first half of the year.

Turkish economy grew 3.9% y/y in 3Q22 (vs. 4% expected and 4.4% market consensus). We nowcast an annual GDP growth rate of 2.8% as of November, which puts a slight downside risk on our 2022 GDP growth forecast of 5.5%. We forecast 2023 GDP grow…

Industrial production (IP) once again surprised to the downside and grew 0.4% y/y in September (vs. 3% expected), implying a very sharp deceleration with 2.5% y/y in 3Q (vs. 10.7% in 2Q). We forecast 5.5% GDP growth in 2022 and 3% in 2023 with …

Industrial production (IP) surprised to the downside and grew 4.1% y/y in August, implying 3.7% y/y in July-August period (vs. 10.7% in 2Q). Monthly GDP indicator nowcasts a quarterly GDP growth of 0.5-1% for 3Q, while we maintain our 2022 GDP …

We aim to improve our existing Monthly GDP Nowcasting Model in order to draw a leading and more accurate picture of the economic activity in real time in Türkiye. In addition, we also generate a reliable in-house «Weekly GDP Tracker» to compute real-time responses to policy impulses in a period of rapidly changing shocks.

Turkish economy grew by 7.6% y/y in 2Q22, resulted in 7.5% y/y GDP growth in the first half of 2022. We keep our 2022 GDP growth forecast of 5%, on the grounds of the recent high realization in the first half and authorities’ bias to maintain loose policies.

Industrial Production continued to surprise on the upside and grew 8.5% y/y in cal. adj. terms in June. Monthly GDP indicator nowcasts a quarterly GDP contraction of near 1% as of early August, while we maintain our 2022 GDP growth forecast at …

Turkish economy grew by 7.3% y/y in 1Q22 parallel to market expectation (7.2%). Given recent high momentum in activity and clear commitment of authorities to maintain loose policies, risks become tilted significantly to the upside on our pruden…

Turkish economy grew by 9.1% y/y in 4Q21, which resulted in a full year growth rate of 11% in 2021. Based on high frequency indicators and our big data information, GDP growth is already decelerating to almost 0% q/q growth rate in 1Q22, which …

Industrial Production (IP) surprised on the upside by increasing 14.4% yoy in calendar adjusted terms (vs market expectation of 10.8% in December). We expect 2022 GDP growth to be 3.5%.

Industrial Production (IP) grew higher than expectations by 13.8% yoy in calendar adjusted terms and 19.9% yoy in raw series in August. Despite the fading positive base effects 3Q onwards, given the strong momentum so far and recovering global growth, we keep our 2021 GDP growth forecast at 9% with risks on the upside.