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Turkish economy grew by 4.0% y/y in 4Q23 (vs. 3.6% exp. and consensus), leading to an overall GDP growth of 4.5% in 2023. We maintain our 2024 GDP growth forecast of 3.5%, for which we envisage pre-election fiscal impulse and expected capital inflows will be supportive.

Turkish economy grew by 5.9% y/y in 3Q, above the market consensus of 5.3% but parallel to our expectation of 6%. We expect GDP growth rate to be 4.5% in 2023 but decelerate to 3.5% in 2024 with a bias to the downside.

Turkish economy grew by 3.8% in 2Q23 in annual terms slightly above the market consensus of 3.5% (vs. our expectation of 4.5%), which corresponds to 5% GDP growth if the calendar day adjustment is made. We expect GDP growth to materialize in th…

Industrial production (IP) increased by 1.6% m/m in seasonal and calendar adjusted series, resulting in the 2.3% q/q acceleration of activity in 2Q (vs. 0.5% q/q in 1Q). We expect GDP growth to be 4.5% in 2023 thanks to the strong growth patter…

Industrial production (IP) decreased by 0.2% y/y in cal. adj. series while unadjusted figure increased by 11.3% in May. We forecast GDP growth to be 4.5% in 2023, led by expected gradual normalization steps in monetary policy, whereas the growt…

Industrial production (IP) rapidly recovered in March increasing by 5.5% m/m (1.8% m/m cons.), mostly wiping out the impact from the earthquakes. Recent better than forecasted momentum and potential continuation of populist policies after elections put upside risk on our 2023 growth forecast of 3%.

Industrial production (IP) deteriorated sharply in Feb. contracting by 6.0% m/m on seas. and cal. adj. series, contrary to consensus (+2% m/m exp.). Considering recovery signaled by our nowcasts and assuming gradual policy normalization after the elections, we expect GDP to grow 3% in 2023 but risks remain on the upside.

Industrial production (IP) production grew 7.0% y/y in January (vs. 4.6% expected and 3.9% market consensus). Our big data indicators started to signal a quick recovery to their pre-quake levels. Hence, we maintain our 2023 GDP forecast of 3%, …

Industrial production (IP) surprised to the upside and grew 2.5% y/y in October (vs. 0.1% expected). Though, weaker activity in 4Q so far puts slight downward risk on our 2022 GDP forecast of 5.5%. We forecast 3% GDP growth in 2023 with expecte…

Turkish economy grew 3.9% y/y in 3Q22 (vs. 4% expected and 4.4% market consensus). We nowcast an annual GDP growth rate of 2.8% as of November, which puts a slight downside risk on our 2022 GDP growth forecast of 5.5%. We forecast 2023 GDP grow…

Turkish economy grew by 7.6% y/y in 2Q22, resulted in 7.5% y/y GDP growth in the first half of 2022. We keep our 2022 GDP growth forecast of 5%, on the grounds of the recent high realization in the first half and authorities’ bias to maintain loose policies.

Industrial Production continued to surprise on the upside and grew 10.8% y/y in calendar adjusted terms in April. If no substantial negative shock occurs, given the current pace, it becomes more likely to achieve a full year growth rate close to 5%.