Publications

Consumer inflation rose 1.0% m/m in June, in line with our expectations, bringing annual inflation down to 32.1%. Despite lower energy prices and the postponement of the SCT hike on fuel, the unexpected July hike in health examination fees reduces the limited downside risk to our 30% year-end inflation forecast.

The CBRT kept rates unchanged and signaled a further reliance on macroprudential measures. Despite some moderation in demand conditions and favorable seasonal factors on inflation, domestic and external uncertainties continue to pose challenges to the disinflation process.

The CBRT kept the policy rate unchanged at 37%, in line with market expectations, missing another opportunity to deliver a positive surprise. The CBRT appears to consider existing measures sufficient and views conflict-related risks as temporary, despite the recent clear deterioration in inflation expectations.

The CBRT maintained the policy rate (37.0%) and the bands of the interest rate corridor (35.5%-40.0%), parallel to the expectations. The CBRT seems to view the recent geopolitical risks as temporary and believes its current policy toolkit is sufficient to mitigate these risks for now.

The Central Bank kept the policy rate at 50% in line with expectations, maintaining a wait and see approach with a hawkish message. They highlight a potential temporary increase in monthly inflation in July, but expect the rise in the underlying inflation trend to be limited.

The Central Bank kept the policy rate at 50% in line with expectations. We expect that annual inflation will come down to 45-50% by September on base effects before ending the year at 43%. We believe that there would be only a limited room to start easing cycle very gradually in 4Q24 considering high inflation expectations.

The CBRT kept the policy rate constant at 50% in line with market expectations. We expect the CBRT to remain tight for longer on high inflation expectations, which would start a sustained path to unwind current regulations and exit from the FC protected scheme to strengthen the monetary transmission mechanism.