Publications

Consumer inflation materialized at 1.7% m/m, in line with our expectation, bringing annual inflation to 32.6%. Assuming a gradual reopening of Strait of Hormuz and some normalization in energy prices in 2H26, we maintain our year-end CPI forecast at 30%, while acknowledging upside risks amid war-related uncertainty

The CBRT kept the policy rate unchanged at 37%, in line with market expectations, missing another opportunity to deliver a positive surprise. The CBRT appears to consider existing measures sufficient and views conflict-related risks as temporary, despite the recent clear deterioration in inflation expectations.

The Central Bank (CBRT) reduced the policy rate by 150bps to 38.0%, following the split among the rate cut expectations of 100-200bps. We forecast year end consumer inflation to be 25% on elevated inflation expectations and robust inertia, where the CBRT might continue to cut the rate toward 32% at the end of 2026.

The Central Bank kept the policy rate at 50% in line with expectations, maintaining a wait and see approach with a hawkish message. They highlight a potential temporary increase in monthly inflation in July, but expect the rise in the underlying inflation trend to be limited.

The CBRT maintained the policy rate (50%) and the range between borrowing and lending rates (600 bps). They remain cautious about the risks on inflation outlook. On financial stability concerns, they aim to sterilize excess TL liquidity stemming from the most recent domestic and foreign demand for TL financial assets.

The CBRT kept the policy rate constant at 50% in line with market expectations. We expect the CBRT to remain tight for longer on high inflation expectations, which would start a sustained path to unwind current regulations and exit from the FC protected scheme to strengthen the monetary transmission mechanism.

The Central Bank (CBRT) surprised the markets and hiked the policy rate by 500 bps to 50%. They promised to tighten the stance further according to the inflation outlook and support the monetary transmission mechanism in case of unanticipated developments in credit growth and deposit rates.