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The Central Bank of Turkey maintained the policy rate (one-week repo) at 19% in line with the expectations. We expect the CBRT to start an easing cycle very gradually in 4Q (depending on the potential market volatility and upside risks on the inflation) and end the year with 17.5% policy rate.
The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) maintained the policy rate (one-week repo) at 19% in line with the expectations. Given the rising upside risks on inflation outlook and potentially increasing global yields, we expect the CBRT to start an easing cycle only very gradually in October and end the year with 17.5% policy rate.
The Central Bank of Turkey kept the policy rate at 19% in line with the expectations. Given the worsened inflation expectations, the CBRT repeated the need to decisively keep the current “tight” monetary policy stance. Thus we expect an eas…
Consumer prices increased by 0.89% in May, sizably lower than expectations, resulting in an annual inflation of 16.59% (down from 17.14% the month before). We maintain our year-end inflation forecast at 15% and expect the CBRT to start an easin…
The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) kept the policy rate (one-week repo) at 19% in line with the expectations. Given the worsened inflation outlook, the CBRT tries to manage by eliminating any early rate cut expectations thus, we expect an easing…
Consumer prices increased 1.68% in April resulting in an annual inflation of 17.1% (up from 16.2% the month before). We maintain our year-end inflation forecast at 15% and expect the CBRT to start an easing cycle only very gradually in September.
CBRT altered forward guidance to more dovish side as referring tight stance by means of keeping the policy rate unchanged and promised to keep the policy rate at a level above inflation.
The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) raised the policy rate by 200bps to 19% beating the expectations of a 100bps hike. We maintain our view to have the first rate cut in 4Q21, which will depend on the inflation dynamics and might require the CBRT…
Consumer prices increased by 0.91% bringing the annual inflation up to 15.6% from 15% in January. We keep our year end annual inflation forecast of 10.5% but acknowledging with upside risks due to stronger commodity prices, high inertia and cos…
The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) maintained the policy rate (one-week repo) at 17% in line with the expectations. We maintain our expectations having the first rate cut of the CBRT in 4Q21 and expect the policy rate to be 14% at the end of 202…
The CBRT maintained the policy rate at 17% in line with the expectations. It also underlined the decisive maintenance of the tight stance “for an extended period of time” until strong indicators point to a permanent fall in inflation and price stability. We expect the policy rate to be 14% at the end of 2021.
Consumer prices increased by 1.25% in December, leading the annual inflation to reach 14.6% up from 14% in November. We expect inflation to increase till May 2021 before a gradual disinflation path thereafter and end the year at 10.5% helped by sizable positive base effects in 4Q21.
