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In this edition of the QLMO, we analyze the labor market situation with data available up to the first quarter of 2024. We review the trends of the main indicators, examine the differences between the Labor Force Survey and administrative records, and highlight Spain's productivity deficit.

Social Security affiliation increased by 199,500, while unemployment declined by 60,500. Adjusted for seasonality, it's estimated that the number of contributors rose by 60,000 and the unemployed fell by 34,000. The proportion of General Regime affiliates with temporary contracts held steady at 14.4% CVEC.

Negative seasonality caused a decline in employment (-100,200) and an increase in the unemployment rate (13.6%). However, the adjusted figures (SWDA) are positive: employment grew by 1.1% qoq, hours worked by 0.8%, the unemployment rate fell to 13.0% and the seasonality rate hardly changed (25.1%).

Enrollment increased in March (140,200 persons), temporary employment fell (to 69.3%) and unemployment barely change (-2,900 persons). Seasonally adjusted, this pattern was confirmed. In 1Q22, Social Security affiliation (1.2% t/t CVEC) and hiring (1.5%) grew while registered unemployment fell (-5.4%).

The improvement in health indicators and the relaxation of restrictions have reduced uncertainty and allowed a recovery in private spending and national tourism. The foregoing translates into generalized upward revisions in all regions in 2021, although with a different magnitude.

From the second half of this year on, the progress in vaccination and larger investment related to NGEU funds shall push the recovery. In 2022, additionnally, expansive fiscal policies in Europe, Spain (and it´s autonomous communities) and the US shall push growth.

Between 2013 and 2018, the disparities in GDP per capita between the Autonomous Communities have barely reduced. This is unusual given that regional convergence in Spain has always appeared to be cyclical in nature.

BBVA Research has closely analyzed the Aragonese economy for a number years. We witnessed the resurgence following the "Great Crisis": 7 consecutive years of growth allowed GDP to recover, and it will grow above the average in Spain.