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Employment hardly changed between January and March, improving expectations. After adjusting by seasonality, job creation and total hours worked accelerated (to 1.2% and 0.6% t/t SWDA, respectively). In addition, the unemployment rate (12.6% SWDA) and the temporary employment rate (17.8% SWDA) fell.
Negative seasonality caused a decline in employment (-100,200) and an increase in the unemployment rate (13.6%). However, the adjusted figures (SWDA) are positive: employment grew by 1.1% qoq, hours worked by 0.8%, the unemployment rate fell to 13.0% and the seasonality rate hardly changed (25.1%).
Enrollment increased in March (140,200 persons), temporary employment fell (to 69.3%) and unemployment barely change (-2,900 persons). Seasonally adjusted, this pattern was confirmed. In 1Q22, Social Security affiliation (1.2% t/t CVEC) and hir…
Once the labor reform has been approved, the next step will be to evaluate its effects, although mostly they will only be seen in the medium and long term. The authorities must ensure that the fall in temporary employment does not come at the e…
The improvement in health indicators and the relaxation of restrictions have reduced uncertainty and allowed a recovery in private spending and national tourism. The foregoing translates into generalized upward revisions in all regions in 2021,…
From the second half of this year on, the progress in vaccination and larger investment related to NGEU funds shall push the recovery. In 2022, additionnally, expansive fiscal policies in Europe, Spain (and it´s autonomous communities) and the US shall push growth.
Catalonia's GDP will fall by between 11.5% and 12.0% in 2020 and grow by between 6.0% and 6.5% in 2021, and 85,000 jobs could be destroyed in the two years. The impact of the crisis is differentiated by sector and region. Public policies are slowing down the fall in employment, but uncertainty remains high.
Between 2013 and 2018, the disparities in GDP per capita between the Autonomous Communities have barely reduced. This is unusual given that regional convergence in Spain has always appeared to be cyclical in nature.
BBVA Research has closely analyzed the Aragonese economy for a number years. We witnessed the resurgence following the "Great Crisis": 7 consecutive years of growth allowed GDP to recover, and it will grow above the average in Spain.
The recent review by the INE (Spanish Office of National Statistics) of the Quarterly Accounts came as a surprise, with growth in the second quarter falling below previous progress and the forecasts by analysts and experts.
The Spanish economy will grow 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019, above those forecasted three months ago. The favorable external environment and the lower long-term financing cost offset the impact of economic policy uncertainty. This scenario is consistent with the creation of one million jobs and the reduction of the unemploy…
Labour market records fulfilled the expectatives in July. BBVA Research estimations show that, after controlling for stationarity, social security affiliation grew by 52 thousand people while unemployment was reduced by 42 thousand.
