January 28, 2020
Unemployment latest publications
Presentation made in the joint event of BBVA CIB and Bloomberg held in Geneva about digitalization in private banking where BBVA Research showed some of the developed tools and products using Big Data to enrich the economic, social and geopolitical analysis.
The Spanish economy is suffering a double impasse. Politically, although a government has just been formed, it is difficult to anticipate what support it will have for approving new general budgets and legislative initiatives that provide a new momentum for reform. Economically, GDP has slowed.
Turkish unemployment data is published with a significant delay (nearly three months), making it difficult to analyze the labor market in advance. In order to assess the evolution of the unemployment in high frequency, we have developed a dynamic model combining both the Business Cycle and Google searches for jobs.
Highly predictive financial and economic factors suggest recession risk remains low. However, these indicators are trending towards pre-recession peaks, implying a recession could happen around 2020.
Following the marked increase seen in 2009 (to around 9% of GDP), household savings have fallen almost to all-time lows (3.7% at the end of 2017). This has led to concerns due to the possible vulnerability of households and continued growth in consumption over the next few years.
Robust stance in the economic activity continued in 2Q, according to our nowcast. Inflation will ease further in summer on top of favorable base effects before climbing up again in 3Q. The CBRT strengthened its hawkish stance by keeping its interest rates intact and having the average funding rate hover above 11.9%.
Employment gained dynamism in September after the August bump. After controlling for stationarity, we estimate that affiliation grew by 40 thousand people and unemployment was reduced by 24 thousand. The third quarter balance was positive: growth in the number of affiliates was similar to the one in 2Q16 (0,7% QoQ) and the …
Labour marked records were positively surprising in June. After controlling for stationarity, hiring reached historical highs, social security affiliation rose by 70 thousand people and unemployment was reduced by 45 thousand. In 2Q16 the labour market improved progressively: the growth in the number of affiliates accelerat…