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September 27, 2018

U.S. | Just what the doctor ordered: real-time recession forecasts

Highly predictive financial and economic factors suggest recession risk remains low. However, these indicators are trending towards pre-recession peaks, implying a recession could happen around 2020.
  • Geography Tags
  • USA

February 26, 2018

Where are the risks in saving?

Following the marked increase seen in 2009 (to around 9% of GDP), household savings have fallen almost to all-time lows (3.7% at the end of 2017). This has led to concerns due to the possible vulnerability of households and continued growth in consumption over the next few years.

August 1, 2017

Turkey | Monthly Economic Monitor - July 2017

Robust stance in the economic activity continued in 2Q, according to our nowcast. Inflation will ease further in summer on top of favorable base effects before climbing up again in 3Q. The CBRT strengthened its hawkish stance by keeping its interest rates intact and having the average funding rate hover above 11.9%.

October 4, 2016

Spain | The labour market kept its positive tone in the third quarter

Employment gained dynamism in September after the August bump. After controlling for stationarity, we estimate that affiliation grew by 40 thousand people and unemployment was reduced by 24 thousand. The third quarter balance was positive: growth in the number of affiliates was similar to the one in 2Q16 (0,7% QoQ) and the …

July 4, 2016

Spain | The recovery in the labour market gained dynamism in the second quarter

Labour marked records were positively surprising in June. After controlling for stationarity, hiring reached historical highs, social security affiliation rose by 70 thousand people and unemployment was reduced by 45 thousand. In 2Q16 the labour market improved progressively: the growth in the number of affiliates accelerat…

May 4, 2016

Spain | The improvement trend in the labour market continued in April

The labour market records fulfilled flash expectatives in April, boosted by the positive development in the service sector. After controlling for stationarity, afiiliation grew by 52 thousand people, while unemployment fell by 20 thousand.

March 24, 2016

U.S. | Initial Claims now 55 Consecutive Weeks below 300K, the Longest Streak Since 1973

Initial claims increased modestly (6K) in week ending March 19th. Continuing claims for week ending March 12th decreased 39K compared to prior week. Growth in insured unemployment in oil and gas-exposed states has stabilized or slowed
  • Geography Tags
  • USA

February 26, 2016

Spain | Confidence moderates in February, but less than at the beginning of the year

Despite household and industry confidence indicators diminishing in February, the moderation in terms of optimism was lower than the one observed at the beginning of the year. Unemployment expectatives explain the fall in consumer confidence, while expectatives concerning order and inventory portfolios illustrate the evolut…