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January 28, 2020

Use of Big Data at BBVA Research to better understand the society, economy and the world

Presentation made in the joint event of BBVA CIB and Bloomberg held in Geneva about digitalization in private banking where BBVA Research showed some of the developed tools and products using Big Data to enrich the economic, social and geopolitical analysis.

January 17, 2020

Reforms to Boost Prosperity

The Spanish economy is suffering a double impasse. Politically, although a government has just been formed, it is difficult to anticipate what support it will have for approving new general budgets and legislative initiatives that provide a new momentum for reform. Economically, GDP has slowed.

November 5, 2019

Nowcasting Turkish unemployment using real time data from Google

Turkish unemployment data is published with a significant delay (nearly three months), making it difficult to analyze the labor market in advance. In order to assess the evolution of the unemployment in high frequency, we have developed a dynamic model combining both the Business Cycle and Google searches for jobs.

September 27, 2018

U.S. | Just what the doctor ordered: real-time recession forecasts

Highly predictive financial and economic factors suggest recession risk remains low. However, these indicators are trending towards pre-recession peaks, implying a recession could happen around 2020.
  • Geography Tags
  • USA

February 26, 2018

Where are the risks in saving?

Following the marked increase seen in 2009 (to around 9% of GDP), household savings have fallen almost to all-time lows (3.7% at the end of 2017). This has led to concerns due to the possible vulnerability of households and continued growth in consumption over the next few years.

August 1, 2017

Turkey | Monthly Economic Monitor - July 2017

Robust stance in the economic activity continued in 2Q, according to our nowcast. Inflation will ease further in summer on top of favorable base effects before climbing up again in 3Q. The CBRT strengthened its hawkish stance by keeping its interest rates intact and having the average funding rate hover above 11.9%.

October 4, 2016

Spain | The labour market kept its positive tone in the third quarter

Employment gained dynamism in September after the August bump. After controlling for stationarity, we estimate that affiliation grew by 40 thousand people and unemployment was reduced by 24 thousand. The third quarter balance was positive: growth in the number of affiliates was similar to the one in 2Q16 (0,7% QoQ) and the …

July 4, 2016

Spain | The recovery in the labour market gained dynamism in the second quarter

Labour marked records were positively surprising in June. After controlling for stationarity, hiring reached historical highs, social security affiliation rose by 70 thousand people and unemployment was reduced by 45 thousand. In 2Q16 the labour market improved progressively: the growth in the number of affiliates accelerat…