Unemployment latest publications
The labor market hit the brakes in August, probably driven by both demand and supply factors as a consumption demand slowdown along with increasing health concerns, both associated with the Delta variant, impacted the labor market.
In July, the unemployment rate was 14.3%, lower than in July 2020, but higher than in July 2019. Between June and July 2021, with comparable data, the unemployment rate decreased by 1.1 p.p.. This reduction was leveraged on employment, which grew considerably in July.
Participation in the labor market practically recovered; the return to classes on-site will improve the recovery of labor participation. Formal job creation surprises in July; additional, the removal of outsourcing allows the recovery and exceeds permanent employment levels prior to the pandemic.
In June 2021, the national unemployment rate stood at 14.4% and the urban unemployment rate at 17.1%, lower than the observed the same month last year, but much higher than in 2019. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained relatively stable in June and the employment level was similar to that of October 2020.
Social Security affiliation grew by 91,500 people in July and unemployment fell by 197,800. BBVA Research estimates that employment rose by 67,000 seasonally adjusted and unemployment fell by 181,000. However, the number of workers with limited activity still exceeds 551,000.
In 2021 and 2022, economic growth will be driven by the strong dynamism of internal demand and the global economy. Transitory factors will put pressure on inflation and the risk that it will take time to return, with higher activity, will lead the Central Bank to begin a tightening cycle of rates in late 2021.
Social Security affiliates increased by 233,100 (165,700 SWDA) and unemployed fell by 166.000 (-57,300 SWDA). In Q2, job creation accelerated (1.1% QoQ SWDA) and unemployment returned to the downward path (-0.7%). There are still more than 600,000 workers with limited activity
In May, the national unemployment rate was 15.6% and the urban rate was 16.6%. Between April and May, seasonally adjusted data showed stability in the national unemployment rate and a reduction in the urban rate. Throughout the year, both the national and urban unemployment rates have remained relatively stable.