Unemployment latest publications
Pandemic and election could add noise to short-term outlook, but medium-term prospects improving. Baseline assumes GDP growth of -4.6% in 2020 and 3.8% in 2021. Pace of decline in unemployment to slow as persistent headwinds increase.
October 2, 2020
Spain | The recovery in employment continued in September, but the road ahead is long
Affiliation increased by 81,900 people in September (-2.4% y/y) and unemployment fell by 26,300 (22.6% y/y). Excluding the seasonal component, employment grew by 105,000 people and unemployment decreased by 49,000. In 3Q20, job creation rose by 1.5 t/t CVEC and unemployment fell by 1.0%.
The Mexican Institute of Social Security (IMSS) reported that 92.4 thousand formal jobs were created in August, equivalent to 8.3% of the 1.1 million jobs lost from March to July. The weak recovery in employment could not stop the deterioration of the labor market in a generalized way.
The Covid-19 pandemic generated an unprecedented shock to the labor market that at its peak contributed to the loss of 25 million jobs, forcing 24 million people to claim unemployment benefits and 8 million to leave the labor force temporarily.
As the Spanish economy was still recovering from the effects of the Great Recession, the COVID-19 crisis had a dramatic impact on its labor market, which has been the worst-performing in Europe during said crisis.
In July, the pace of job creation moderated and the number of unemployed fell, reflecting the lack of dynamism in the labor force. As a result, the national unemployment rate fell from 20.8% to 19.8% between June and July.
Social Security Affiliation raised by 6,800 people in August (-2.7% YoY) and unemployment by 29800 (24% YoY). Discounting seasonality, the number of contributors grew by 180000 and the unemployed fell by 17000. The estimated impact of the crisis continues to be significant: -960000 contributors and 825000 unemployed.
Labor dynamics that began in May continued in June, at a slower pace, especially in the cities. The increase in labor supply seemed to moderate in June and less dynamism of employment (labor demand) was observed. The number of unemployed increased in June.