Publications

Typically, short-term changes in geopolitical risk are monitored by high-frequency, news-based indices, which usually revert to the mean after some time. We complement those measures by developing new structural geopolitical risk (SGR) and economic fragmentation (SEF) country-specific indices since the 1960s.

The impact of geopolitical risks on economic phenomena is undeniable, and demand for research in this field is steadily increasing from governments, regulators, the private sector and multilateral institutions.

This paper delivers the first comprehensive estimate of the dynamic fiscal multiplier of defence spending for the EU-27 by exploiting exogenous accrual-based government defence outlays and a combination of linear and non-linear Local Projection methods.

Standard & Poor’s reaffirmed Colombia’s sovereign rating at BB+ with a negative outlook, highlighting economic recovery despite fiscal deterioration. The key now is sustainable growth, driven by investment. The next challenge will be Moody’s review, which still keeps Colombia at investment grade.

The economic recovery and the good financial context, within a framework of fiscal balance and monetary discipline, show that the worst of the crisis is over. Society maintains its support for the government, giving it room to address the challenges of fiscal balance sustainability and FX market flexibilization.

The government maintains a firm commitment to fiscal balance while upholding a "zero monetary issuance" policy for all items arising from the public sector. The slowdown in inflation has stalled since May, remaining around 4% monthly, and economic activity shows signs that the recession may have ended in Q2 2024.

We summarize the recent development of the Chinese economy and highlight the unbalanced economic structure. Risks include the housing market, geopolitics, deflation and unbalanced economic structure. We also analyze the ongoing fiscal and monetary policy coordination to stimulate growth.

Tax revenue was MXN 8,922 million (0.03% of GDP) below budget since the excise taxes on fuels intake was below budget despite its real annual increment of 195.1% in 1Q24.