Country Risk

Country Risk latest publications

July 22, 2019

Brazil Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2019

Brazil: recovery prospects remain in place, despite weaker growth at the beginning of 2019

July 1, 2019

The global respite turns the focus toward local risks

Just as current medicine cannot predict exactly when someone will suffer a stroke or cancer, economic science cannot predict precisely when the next recession, financial crisis or sovereign default will occur.

June 20, 2019

Country Risk Quarterly Report. Second Quarter 2019

Against a background of increasing concerns on economic cycle strength and uprise of global trade tensions, the central banks' more dovish tone helps that financial tensions and global risk aversion remain bounded.

June 12, 2019

U.S. Recession Risk Monitor. June 2019

Models suggest more than 70% probability of recession within the next 24 months. Shadow banking, business debt and risk appetite represent major red flags. Dovish Fed response has potential to negate downside risks in short-term.

April 11, 2019

Brazil Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2019

Growth recovery is slowing down in Brazil. The deceleration in the world economy, as well as slow and limited progress in the local adoption of economic reforms –particularly in the social security- will limit the economy’s capacity for growth in the coming years. We expect GDP to grow 1.8% in both 2019 and 2020.

April 8, 2019

Risk of economic anemia

The risk that the main developed economies are moving towards a regime of reduced economic growth in the medium term has once again gained relevance in recent months. It has been driven by the increase in the probability of recession in the United States and the eurozone, and the relapse of inflation expectations and long-t…

March 29, 2019

U.S. Recession Risk Monitor. March 2019

Models suggest more than 50% probability of recession within the next 24 months. Global, housing and business debt represent major red flags. Fed’s strong dovish bias a response to risks. Markets digesting the balance between weaker outlook vs. lower expected interest rates. Economic fundamentals for households and financia…

March 12, 2019

Country Risk Quarterly Report. First Quarter 2019

Global Risk Aversion experienced high volatility during the quarter, which was reflected mainly in equity markets, but not in sovereign CDS or emerging currencies markets. The improvement seen since the beginning of the year was favoured by the Fed's announcement of a more patient stance in its interest rate policy.