Geostrategy latest publications
Coronavirus hits 180 countries. In the US, the epicenter, strict measures may continue till June. In Europe, it is top priority on the political agenda. G20 announced a united front against the pandemic. Tensions between China and the US due to the virus are easing off. The oil price war triggered a major fall in oil price.
The outbreak of Covid-19 will have a significant negative impact on economies at a global level with generalized shocks on supply and demand, therefore, we revised our GDP growth forecast to -4.5%. Fiscal objectives have to take second place; the most urgent is to underpin health systems and support workers.
The main hot spot was the coronavirus outbreak, which spread across the globe. Geopolitical developments in Syria’s Idlib province created further uncertainty. US President Trump was acquitted from all charges in the US Senate. The United Kingdom and the EU have resumed trade talks to define the post-Brexit period.
The coronavirus hits China, becomes an international emergency and worries markets. Trump revealed peace plan to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict which did not please all countries. New regime offensive in Syria. UK leaves EU. Putin proposes constitutional reforms. Trump signed phase one of the trade deal with China.
The U.S. airstrike against Iranian Quds Forces General Qassem Soleimani triggered high levels of uncertainty in the region as Iran threatened to take revenge and the U.S. warned of further retaliation. Iran retaliated with missile attacks against two U.S. bases in Iraq but U.S. de-escalated the situation.
The protests in Iraq, Lebanon and Iran against government policies triggered questions about the regional stability. Hong Kong pro-democracy candidates gained huge victory in local elections. Social unrest in Latin America intensified in some countries and they should be closely monitored.
November 26, 2019
The use of Big Data at BBVA Research to understand the society, the economy and the world
The text is a key source of information to enrich the analysis. News can be an important source of information on geopolitical events such as sanctions and foreign relations, we can also focus on critical challenges and how the media talks about them.
The US army killed ISIS leader al-Baghdadi. Meanwhile, Turkey brokered separate deals with U.S. and Russia to ensure a safe zone in northern Syria. The UK decided to hold general elections as the EU granted the country a Brexit extension until January 31. The US and China trade war eased with a “phase one” trade deal.