Geostrategy

Houthis seize strategic Red Sea islands as Yemen fighting intensifies. Ukraine offers reciprocal halt to strikes on infrastructure. NATO warns of Russian escalation close to Polish territory.

The ECB raised interest rates by 25 bps, a move that had been largely priced in following a more hawkish July meeting, recent statements, and strong growth data. The central bank also revised its GDP forecasts upward, reflecting a somewhat more optimistic growth outlook.

Russia launches major missile and drone attack on Kyiv after pause during US diplomatic visit. Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. US expands maritime campaign against Ecuadorian vessels allegedly linked to drug-trafficking.

Global climate governance has moved from framework-building to delivery. Despite progress, implementation and ambition remain off track for Paris. COP31 should therefore be judged by whether commitments translate into measurable, financed, accountable and climate-consistent action.

Middle East tensions have triggered high oil market volatility. The closing of the Strait of Hormuz created upward price pressure, but global reserves limited the impact to 4%. Uncertainty remains, with price scenarios dependent on the conflict's evolution and US political factors.

The United States intensifies economic sanctions against Iran. European leaders reinforce military backing for Ukraine. Spain convenes National Security Council to address situation in Ceuta.

In 2026, the dollar reversed its initial weakness, strengthening on expectations of a more hawkish Fed, tensions in the Middle East, and capital flows into the U.S. driven by the AI boom.