series temporales

Últimas publicaciones de series temporales

15 septiembre 2017

Business cycle phases in Spain

We characterize regional business cycles for Spain using monthly Social Security affiliations. Based on a set of Markov-switching models, we find substantial synchronization of regional business cycles, which has increased since the Great Recession. We do however evidence a regional leading and lagging performance that repe…

19 diciembre 2016

Forecasting travelers in Spain with Google queries

We examine whether web search queries help economic agents with predictions about the checking in and overnight stays of travelers in Spain in real time. We show that the models including queries outperform models that exclude these leading indicators. In this way, we aim to contribute to the literature on the link between …

11 enero 2016

The evasive predictive ability of core inflation

We explore the ability of traditional core inflation –consumer prices excluding food and energy–to predict headline CPI annual inflation. We analyze a sample of OECD and non-OECD economies using monthly data from January 1994 to March 2015. Our results indicate that sizable predictability emerges for a small subset of count…
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