BBVA Research

Between 2025 and 2027, regional growth will increasingly rely on domestic demand. In 2025, service-oriented regions stand out; in 2026, consumption and investment will gain prominence, and in 2027, industry and exports in the northern regions will become more relevant.

Climate change is not neutral for potential GDP: unmanaged warming acts as a negative supply shock, while early, credible mitigation and adaptation can offset damages and may generate long-run gains, albeit with high uncertainty and strong scenario dependence.

In the third quarter of 2025, the economy grew by 0.6% compared to the previous quarter. This growth was due to domestic demand, which managed to offset the decline in external demand. During this period, there was a significant increase in employment and a decrease in productivity.

Elevated term premia likely driven by fiscal and institutional risks keep long-end yields high despite stable inflation expectations. Outside isolated episodes of turbulence, markets have reflected favorable conditions over the year and throughout the easing cycle.