Working Papers

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March 18, 2020

China | Forecasting modeling for China's inflation

We are trying to assess a large group of forecasting models’ performance in predicting China’s inflation. Both linear and structural forecasting models are discussed, estimated and evaluated based on some typical criteria such as RMSE, MAE and Theil-U.

March 4, 2020

Lessons from China’s past banking bailouts

China’s banking sector, particularly small and medium-sized banks, today face a headwind of asset quality deterioration. Revisiting Chinese bank rescues from the early 2000s, we examine how the authorities tackled a severe rise in non-performing loans (NPLs).

February 26, 2020

Long series of GVA and regional employment by sector, 1955-2018

This paper describes the construction of the sectoral module of the RegData FEDEA-BBVA database. The RegData regional series of employment, employed and salaried persons, GVA, average salaries and salaried wages are broken down into six large sectors, and services are tentatively broken down into three others

February 10, 2020

The risk of sargassum to the economy and tourism of Quintana Roo and Mexico

An analysis of economic variables and through Big Data is made to quantify the effects of sargassum in the tourist activity of Quintana Roo in 2019. The results do not find solid evidence in this regard, either because it was not a relevant factor or by the success of mitigation actions.

January 30, 2020

The territorial dynamics of income in Spain. Direct determinants of relative income

This paper analyzes the contribution of demography, employment and productivity to income disparities per capita between the Spanish regions and their evolution over the past six decades

December 23, 2019

Business and credit cycles, financial instability and recession triggers

The paper presents a quasi-historiographical or “narrative” analysis of the most critical developments occurring prior to and through the last nine recessions in light of Minsky’s theory of financial instability.
  • Geography Tags
  • USA

October 29, 2019

The Evolution of Financing For Autonomous Communities Under the Common System, 2002–2017

This paper establishes homogenized series of regional financing, based on homogeneous competencies and fiscal effort, between 2002 and 2017.

August 30, 2019

Disentangling Vulnerability through Consumer Behavior: The Role of Financial Health

This paper analyzes the effect of financial participation on consumer's financial vulnerability, which is pervasive in the developing world. The financial behavior of consumers (i.e. financial health) has a greater positive effect on financial vulnerability than the narrower concept of financial inclusion.