Productivity

In 3Q26, GDP grew by 0.6% q/q, in line with the BBVA Research forecast. The main demand aggregates were also aligned with expectations, with positive surprises in exports and construction. Employment continues to grow and productivity improved.

BBVA Research forecasts growth of 2.6% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027. Extending the business-cycle decomposition through end-2026 points to a slowing expansion: demand and credit offset supply-side constraints, while weak productivity limits convergence with the EU8.

The minimum wage debate in Peru presents two views: the competitive one, warning of unemployment and informality risks, and the non-competitive market perspective. Given Peru's low productivity and high informality, excessive hikes could harm the most vulnerable workers in the labor market.

Despite poverty reduction in Mexico (2018-2024), PISA 2025 results reveal an educational stagnation. Seven out of ten students fail to reach the minimum level in mathematics, and the gap between socioeconomic strata persists, highlighting a structural problem in the quality of education.

The Spanish labor market shows a duality: strong job creation but stagnant productivity. In this context, generative artificial intelligence (AI) emerges as an opportunity, although its impact will be uneven. Exposure to AI is higher in skilled occupations and in regions like Madrid.

In this edition of the QLMO, we analyse labour market developments based on data available through Q2 2026. We take stock of the main aggregate indicators and examine occupational exposure to generative AI, as well as its relationship with the occupational structure of employment and labour market entry.

In 2Q26, GDP grew by 0.7% QoQ, one tenth higher than expected, which introduces an upward bias to the 2026 forecast. Private consumption remained solid, while investment and exports advanced less than expected. Employment supported growth and productivity showed mixed signs.