Adem Ileri works as an Economist at Garanti BBVA since January, 2018. His main responsibility is making macroeconomic analysis of Turkey.He hold both BA and MSc degrees in Economics from Middle East Technical University (METU), Ankara. Before joining Garanti Bank, he worked as a Research Assistant at METU and as a Specialist in Economic Research Unit at Turk EximBank (Export Credit Bank of Turkey).
Turkish economy grew by 5.9% y/y in 3Q, above the market consensus of 5.3% but parallel to our expectation of 6%. We expect GDP growth rate to be 4.5% in 2023 but decelerate to 3.5% in 2024 with a bias to the downside.
Industrial production (IP) slightly fell by 0.1% m/m in seas. and cal. adj. series, corresponding to 4.0% y/y growth in cal. adj. terms. Given our soft-landing assumption with expected fiscal impulse and support from potential foreign capital inflow, we maintain our GDP growth forecast at 4.5% for 2023 and at 3.5% for 2024.
Industrial production (IP) declined by 0.8% m/m in seasonal and calendar adjusted series, while increasing by 3.1% y/y on calendar adjusted terms. We expect GDP to materialize close to 4.5% in 2023, whereas gradual interest rate hikes on top of relatively supportive fiscal policy could lead 3.5% growth in 2024.