Adem ?LER? works as an Economist at Garanti BBVA since January, 2018. His main responsibility is making macroeconomic analysis of Turkey.
He hold both BA and MSc degrees in Economics from Middle East Technical University (METU), Ankara. He is also pursuing his PhD study at METU. Before joining Garanti Bank, he worked as a Research Assistant at METU and as a Specialist in Economic Research Unit at Turk EximBank (Export Credit Bank of Turkey).
Consumer prices increased by 0.57% in March, higher than both the consensus 0.5% and BBVA Research 0.23%. Annual inflation declined to 11.86% from 12.37% in February, led by favorable base effects. Looking ahead, we expect the headline inflation to experience one digit levels as early as May and end the year at near 7.5%.
Industrial Production (IP) in January grew by 7.9% yoy in calendar adjusted terms, lower than both the consensus (8.5%). We maintain our GDP forecast at 4%, with obvious risks on the downside depending on both the magnitude and the duration of the Cvirus shock in the economy and particularly in financial markets.
Consumer prices increased by 0.35% in February, lower than expectations (consensus, 0.69% vs ours, 0.85%). Annual figure still rose to 12.37% on base effects. We expect inflation to be 8.5% at the end of 2020 under the assumptions of a neutral real exchange rate and a food inflation at historically seasonal averages