Adem ?LER? works as an Economist at Garanti BBVA since January, 2018. His main responsibility is making macroeconomic analysis of Turkey.
He hold both BA and MSc degrees in Economics from Middle East Technical University (METU), Ankara. He is also pursuing his PhD study at METU. Before joining Garanti Bank, he worked as a Research Assistant at METU and as a Specialist in Economic Research Unit at Turk EximBank (Export Credit Bank of Turkey).
IP declined by 1.3% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in May, slightly better than market expectation (-2%). Hence, the annual contraction in IP (c.a.) decelerated further from -4.7% in 1Q19 to -2.6% in the first two months of 2Q19. In absence of new shocks, we maintain our GDP growth forecast at 0.3% for 2019.
Consumer prices increased by 0.03% in June, lower than consensus but slightly higher than ours (0.2% Bloomberg vs. -0.15% BBVA Research). Supported by the base effects, annual inflation declined to 15.7% from 18.7% in May.
IP(cal. adj. ) contracted by 4% yoy in April, worse than market expectation (-2.5%). The deceleration in the yearly contraction still continues but loses some steam. Though, supported by the current momentum and positive base effects of 2H19, in absence of new shocks, we maintain our GDP growth forecast at 0.3% for 2019.