Adem Ileri works as an Economist at Garanti BBVA since January, 2018. His main responsibility is making macroeconomic analysis of Turkey.He hold both BA and MSc degrees in Economics from Middle East Technical University (METU), Ankara. Before joining Garanti Bank, he worked as a Research Assistant at METU and as a Specialist in Economic Research Unit at Turk EximBank (Export Credit Bank of Turkey).
Industrial Production (IP) grew remarkably lower than expectations by 8.7% yoy in calendar adjusted terms (cons:15.2%) in July, whereas it contracted by 2.3% yoy in raw series. However given the strong momentum so far and still recovering global growth we maintain our 2021 GDP growth forecast at 9%.
Consumer prices increased by 1.12% monthly and 19.25% annually once again above expectations on the back of a higher than expected food inflation. We expect consumer inflation to stay close to 19% till November and end the year at close to 17%, with the help of positive base effects.
Turkish economy grew by 21.7% yearly in 2Q21, resulting in a 14.3% growth in the 1H21. The high carry-over impact is over 3Q onwards but the reopening, recovering tourism and exports revenues are still boosting the overall growth rate. We maintain our 2021 GDP growth forecast at 9%, with risks still on the upside.