Adem Ileri works as an Economist at Garanti BBVA since January, 2018. His main responsibility is making macroeconomic analysis of Turkey.He hold both BA and MSc degrees in Economics from Middle East Technical University (METU), Ankara. Before joining Garanti Bank, he worked as a Research Assistant at METU and as a Specialist in Economic Research Unit at Turk EximBank (Export Credit Bank of Turkey).
Industrial Production grew by 16.6% yoy in cal. adj. terms in March, implying 19.9% yoy growth in unadjusted series (11.2% 1Q21 vs. 10.2% in 4Q20). The strong momentum so far, favorable base effects and upward revisions in the global growth outlook reinforces upsides risks on our current 2021 GDP growth forecast of 5%.
Consumer prices increased 1.68% in April resulting in an annual inflation of 17.1% (up from 16.2% the month before). We maintain our year-end inflation forecast at 15% and expect the CBRT to start an easing cycle only very gradually in September.
CBRT altered forward guidance to more dovish side as referring tight stance by means of keeping the policy rate unchanged and promised to keep the policy rate at a level above inflation.