Searcher
Adem Ileri
Adem Ileri
Senior Economist
Istanbul

Adem Ileri works as an Economist at Garanti BBVA since January, 2018. His main responsibility is making macroeconomic analysis of Turkey.

He hold both BA and MSc degrees in Economics from Middle East Technical University (METU), Ankara. Before joining Garanti Bank, he worked as a Research Assistant at METU and as a Specialist in Economic Research Unit at Turk EximBank (Export Credit Bank of Turkey).

Latest publications

Activity indicators signaled the continuation of weakness till late Dec22 but starting from thereafter early figures indicate the reversal of the recent deceleration. We forecast 5-5.5% GDP growth in 2022 and a very strong start to the year with near 2% q/q growth rate in 1Q23. We expect GDP growth to be 3% in 2023.
Industrial production (IP) surprised to the upside and grew 2.5% y/y in October (vs. 0.1% expected). Though, weaker activity in 4Q so far puts slight downward risk on our 2022 GDP forecast of 5.5%. We forecast 3% GDP growth in 2023 with expected solid performance in the first half of the year.
Consumer prices rose by 2.9% in November (vs. 3% both consensus and our exp.), leading to limited decline in annual inflation figure of 84.4% (85.5% prev.). We forecast 2022 year end inflation to be 67% given the recent favourable base effects and the Government’s efforts to maintain manageable currency depreciation.