Adem ?LER? works as an Economist at Garanti BBVA since January, 2018. His main responsibility is making macroeconomic analysis of Turkey.
He hold both BA and MSc degrees in Economics from Middle East Technical University (METU), Ankara. He is also pursuing his PhD study at METU. Before joining Garanti Bank, he worked as a Research Assistant at METU and as a Specialist in Economic Research Unit at Turk EximBank (Export Credit Bank of Turkey).
Consumer prices increased by 0.74% in December, beating the consensus estimate of 0.4%; led the annual CPI to end 2019 at 11.84%. In absence of shocks, Consumer inflation could stay between 11-12% in 1Q20 before experiencing levels close to 10.5% in 2Q20. We expect inflation to be 8.5% at the end of 2020.
The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) decreased the policy rate by 200 bps to 12% from 14%, slightly higher than market expectation of 150 bps. Global Central Banks Dovishness remain supportive but we think that complacency should be ruled out and the CBRT should be ready to act in any direction if the situation change.
Consumer prices increased by 0.38% mom in November, way lower than market consensus and ours (0.75%, Bloomberg vs 0.77%, BBVA). Annual inflation increased to 10.56% from 8.55% in October due to the unfavorable base effect. We expect that annual inflation will increase close to 11.8% at the end of 2019 with downside risk.