Consumer inflation came in at 2.58% m/m in Oct26, exceeding our forecast (2.45%) and consensus (2.4%), lifting annual inflation to 29.8% (vs. 29.7% in Sep26). We maintain our 2026 year-end inflation forecast at 30%, with risks slightly tilted to the upside, and continue to expect the CBRT to pause at its December meeting.

The CBRT cut the policy rate by 100bp to 36% and accordingly lowered the asymmetric interest corridor to 34.5-39%, in line with the market consensus. The CBRT also signals that the easing cycle may not proceed smoothly, with potential pauses along the way.