Adem Ileri
Adem Ileri
BBVA Research - Principal Economist

Adem Ileri works as a Principal Economist at Garanti BBVA since January, 2018. His main responsibility is making macroeconomic analysis of Turkey.

He hold both BA and MSc degrees in Economics from Middle East Technical University (METU), Ankara. Before joining Garanti Bank, he worked as a Research Assistant at METU and as a Specialist in Economic Research Unit at Turk EximBank (Export Credit Bank of Turkey).

Latest publications

The CBRT maintained the policy rate (50%) and the range between borrowing and lending rates (600 bps). They remain cautious about the risks on inflation outlook. On financial stability concerns, they aim to sterilize excess TL liquidity stemming from the most recent domestic and foreign demand for TL financial assets.
The CBRT signals to remain tight as long as needed, while new fiscal measures signal that the policy mix will be more coordinated. Considering the lagged impact of policies, we believe macro-prudential measures to contain still solid consumption would be needed.
Observing no clear signs of deceleration, we nowcast a quarterly GDP growth closer to 1.5% as of May. Given the current solid performance and the lagged impact of the expected tighter policies in 2H, we eliminate our previous slight downward bias and now assess the risks on our 2024 GDP growth forecast of 3.5% are balanced.