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Agustín García

Agustín García Serrador joined the Europe Unit of BBVA Research in June 2008. Currently, he is the Head Economist in the Global Economic Scenarios Unit where he handles macroeconomic analysis of the eurozone as a whole, as well as of its main members and the United Kingdom. He also helps analyse the main factors and consistency of the global situation.

 

Previously, he was the macroeconomic coordinator of BIAM at the Flores de Lemus Institute in Carlos III University in Madrid as well as a professor of Macroeconometrics and Applied Economy at CEU San Pablo University. He also taught master’s programmes in both of these universities.

 

Macroeconometrics and monetary and tax policy research in the eurozone with publications in Applied Economics, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics and Journal of Forecasting.

 

He has a Bachelor’s Degree in Economy and won a National Award for Excellence in Academic Performance in 2002, and he earned a Diploma for Advanced Studies from CEU San Pablo University, for which he also received the 2004 Youth Prize from the Complutense University of Madrid.


Latest Publications

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Eurozone | Growth moderation has continued in Q2 and headline inflation has shot up

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The Eurozone could grow at about 0.4% QoQ in the second quarter after a similar figure in 1Q18, according to our BBVA-MICA model. This poses a downward bias to our 2.3% growth forecast for 2018. Inflation accelerated rapidly in May (1.9%) due to higher commodity prices and the euro depreciation, but the core component has progressed as expected to 1.3%.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Growth is still holding up despite increasing uncertainty

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Global growth remains on a strong footing at the beginning of 2Q18 despite the high levels of uncertainty, especially coming from trade news. Hard data and sentiment indicators remain solid but with growing differences across areas. Inflation surged in advanced economies on higher commodity prices while monetary policy normalization continues.

Available in Spanish, English

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The ECB delivers on QE exit and gives strong guidance on rates

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The Asset Purchase Programme will end in December 2018. However, interest rates will remain on hold at least until the summer 2019, later than expected. Macro projections were revised in line with expectations: GDP down in 2018 to 2.1% and inflation up in 2018 and 2019 to 1.7%.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | More moderate growth with higher uncertainty

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Growth slowed in 1Q18 to 0.4% QoQ, more than expected. Hard data picked up somewhat in March, but sentiment data continues to be hesitant up to May. Our BBVA-MICA model projects growth to remain around 0.4% in 2Q18, and imply a downward bias on our 2.3% annual GDP growth projection.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Growth continues to be strong in 2Q18, with higher uncertainty

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Positive global momentum continued at the beginning of 2Q18, but in a context of greater uncertainty. Hard data indicators have been mixed with robust industrial production but more hesitant private consumption and global trade. Across large areas, US data has been positive while the EZ is stabilizing after a disappointing 1Q and China is decelerating very slowly

Available in Spanish, English

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ECB Watch | Draghi calm on recent data but more vigilant on protectionism

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The ECB left the main lines of its forward guidance unchanged. Draghi did not sound much worried about growth moderation but vigilant on protectionism. There was no discussion on the next steps of monetary policy.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | Solid growth and broadly unchanged projections, with protectionist risks

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Confidence weakened in 1Q18 and hard data start to reflect this softer mood, although fundamentals remain robust. We keep our growth forecasts broadly unchanged, reaching 2.3% in 2018 and 1.8% in 2019. Inflation is expected to hover around 1.5% during 2018-19 but increasing gradually, driven by core components. Risks are tilted to increased protectionism.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Growth remains firm but risks intensify

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The strength of the world economy is being exposed to divergent forces that have intensified global risks. Fiscal stimulus approved in the US will likely spur growth in other areas, but protectionism poses a risk. We maintain our forecasts for global growth unchanged at 3.8% for 2018-19 with some adjustments across regions. To complement our analysis we add a brief note.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Strong momentum continues in 1Q18 driven by trade, despite some weaker data in DM

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Our BBVA-GAIN model projects the world GDP to grow 1% QoQ in 1Q18, up from 0.9% in 4Q17. Global exports strengthened significantly in February, but industrial output and retail sales were modest in early 2018. Confidence remains at high level in 1Q18 so far, but showing some signs of moderation.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | The moderation of confidence continues

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Our MICA-BBVA model suggests a cruise speed growth in 1Q18 at 0.6/0.7% QoQ, supported by strong global trade and fixed investment. Despite solid fundamentals, we observed early signs of moderation as weak hard data in January adds to a cooled optimism in 1Q. Annual inflation eased again to 1.1% in February driven by food, while the core figure remained steady at 1.2%.

Available in Spanish, English

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ECB Watch | Another step towards monetary policy normalization, as expected

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The ECB removed the easing bias on the Asset Purchase Programme. Macro projections remained mostly unchanged. Protectionism (re)emerges as a downside risk.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | Strong growth continues in 1Q18 but confidence seems to peak

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GDP growth moderated in 4Q17 but increased above potential for the third year in a row (+2.5% in 2017). Hard data improved by the end of last year but sentiment indicators moderated in February. Our MICA-BBVA model estimates an upturn in growth to around 0.6/0.7% QoQ for 1Q18. We continue to expect a gradual slowdown over the year to a still strong growth of 2.2% in 2018.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Growth momentum continues, with some signs of exhaustion in confidence levels

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Global growth slows slightly in 4Q17, but remains robust. According to our GAIN-model, GDP is projected to grow 1% QoQ in 1Q18 after 0.9% in 4Q17. Strong momentum is shared by the three main areas, but confidence may have reached its peak in the Eurozone. Core inflation showed slight upward pressures in advanced economies.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19

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Our MICA-BBVA model estimates steady growth in 4Q17 (0.6/0.7% QoQ). We revised up our growth forecast to 2.2% in 2018 given strengthened domestic factors and better global outlook. Our inflation forecast increased to 1.5% due to higher oil prices but keeping a view of gradual pick-up in core prices. We still expect a gradual normalization of monetary policy during 2018-19.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Widespread upward revision of growth forecasts in 2018

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Growth stabilized at high levels and recent data suggest an uptick in activity at 4Q17. We revised upwards our growth forecasts for 2018 to 3.8% (+0.3pp), driven by an improved outlook and boost from tax reform in the US, a more gradual slowdown in China and the strengthening of domestic demand in the EZ. Central banks continue with a gradual normalization process.

Available in Spanish, English