alert_serviceYour space user_add New user

Forgot your password?
Stay logged in to leave
Publication date
From
To
Agustín García

Latest Publications

Catalog Icon

Eurozone | Robust growth in early 2017 and still low core inflation

By , , , ,

After growing at 0.4% in 4Q16, our MICA-BBVA model continues to estimate a quarterly GDP growth in the eurozone of 0.5% QoQ in 1Q17 and puts a slight upward bias to our projection of 1.6% for this year. Confidence indicators reflect this mood better than activity data. Finally, despite the 2.0% YoY headline inflation in February, core measures remain subdued at 0.9% YoY.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Global | Global growth points to 0.9%-1% in early 2017

By , , , ,

Global GDP growth continues accelerating in Q1, though our BBVA-GAIN indicator of global growth is slightly lower than a month ago (Q4: 0.85%; Q1: 0.93%). Confidence indicators continue to be very strong and global trade gives signals of further expansion, but industrial production and especially retail sales are more moderate in early year.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Slight change in ECB wording

By , ,

The ECB is more optimistic regarding the growth outlook. Inflation is revised significantly up this year to 1.7% YoY on increasing energy prices, but the ECB barely changes its broad view on core inflation. They still maintain a dovish bias, but they introduce a small tweak that could be the prelude of additional changes in the coming months

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Eurozone | A slight upward revision to our GDP growth projections

By , , , ,

Our MICA-BBVA model estimates growth to reach 0.5% QoQ in 1Q (2H16: 0.4%) as improving confidence at the start of 2017 suggest that the recovery could be gaining momentum in 1Q17. We have revised slightly upward our growth projections to 1.6% this year and next, though political risks persist.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Global | More growth, but with old and new risks across regions

By , , , ,

Global growth strengthened in 2H16 (+0.9% QoQ) and it could be gathering pace in 1Q17 (+1.0% QoQ), as our GAIN-model suggests, driven mostly by industrial activity and improving global trade. New quarterly projections remain broadly unchanged, with differences across regions, while risks are tilted to the downside and are mostly of a political nature.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Global Watch | Improving activity, but higher uncertainty

By , , , , ,

Global growth has stepped up further in 4Q16 (+0.9% QoQ), as our GAIN-model suggests, driven mostly by industrial activity and stronger confidence along with improving global trade and higher new orders. Nonetheless, risks are tilted to the downside and are linked to politics and protectionism, but also derive from China’s imbalances.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

The ECB remains patient

By , ,

As widely expected, the ECB has remained on hold and has not changed its communication. On inflation, also as expected, the ECB has put the focus on underlying inflation -that remains subdued- instead of headline, thus trying to dampen any concerns on inflation. Draghi remarked that the tapering issue was not discussed and he wanted to avoid any speculation on this issue

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Eurozone | Some changes for the better

By , , , , ,

We continue to see resilience to the various potentially disturbing political events in 2H16. So far, confidence data allow us to be slightly more optimistic. Still more, the recovery of exports and the strength of consumption at the end of 2016 show that positive underlying signs are taking root. Our model suggests GDP to have gained momentum to 0.5%/0.6% QoQ in 4Q16.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Eurozone | Soft data point at growth acceleration in Q4, though downward risks prevail

By , , , , ,

Our MICA-BBVA model estimates growth to increase to 0.4/0.5% QoQ in 4Q (3Q: 0.3%). Improving confidence proved the EZ resilience after political events since the summer, while data so far suggest a slightly more optimistic outlook for coming months supported by export orders and the depreciation of the euro. However, risks (mostly political) remain tilted to the downside.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Global | Broadly unchanged global outlook after Trump´s victory, with uncertainty

By , , , , ,

Global growth is expected to gain further momentum in 4Q16 (+0.9% QoQ), as our GAIN-BBVA model suggests, in a context of a better performance of developed countries than emerging economies. Nonetheless, short-term risks continued to be tilted to the downside and mostly political, but also derived from China’s imbalances.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Global | Slight improvement amid high uncertainty

By , , , , ,

Global growth accelerated to 0.8% QoQ in 3Q driven by the rebound in the US and the resilience in both EZ and Asia, while the recession in Latam eased. Incoming data points to a strengthening recovery in emerging Asia, mainly supported by domestic demand but also by improving trade while the industrial recovery in developed markets gathers momentum.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Eurozone | Steady recovery, resilient to political uncertainty

By , , , , ,

The moderate pace of economic growth continued in the eurozone in 3Q16 (+0.3% QoQ), in a context of improved external demand and resilience after the uncertainty experienced by mid-year. We maintain our GDP growth projection for the eurozone at 1.6% and 1.5% in 2016 and 2017, respectively.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

How long can the low interest rate environment last?

By ,

The low interest rates in developed economies are a symptom with multiple causes, some structural and others cyclical, which taken together suggest we’ll see very gradual rate hikes. In fact, it could take up to a decade to see policy rates converge at around 3.5-4.0%, way below the 5% benchmark rate seen prior to the global crisis.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

ECB Watch: few clues for December

By , , ,

Today's ECB meeting provided little news apart from dismissing rumors of tapering. Decisions have been postponed to December, as widely expected, and no clues were provided on the discussion of QE extension or technical changes to cope with bond scarcity problems. We continue to expect the ECB to announce an extension of QE by December.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Global | Very gradual improvement in activity

By , , , ,

Downward pressures on global growth seem to have diminished in Q3, but incoming data so far continue to be volatile. Domestic spending is the main driver of EM’s recovery while industrial production seems to gain momentum in DM. Significant improvement in exports in August across the board, but September figures for Asia increased concerns on trade recovery.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Eurozone | An improvement in the third quarter, with caution

By , , , ,

Our MICA-BBVA indicator estimates quarterly GDP growth in the eurozone to gain some momentum to 0.4% in Q3 (Q2: 0.3%) due to better-than-expected hard data in August that point to stronger private consumption and investment in Q3. However, the still weak global demand and the moderate euro appreciation so far this year could weigh on exports and the industrial sector.

Units:
Geographies:Europe

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Global | An improvement is not yet clear

By , , , ,

Downward pressures on global growth seem to have diminished in Q3, but incoming data so far has failed to show a strengthening recovery. Consumption remains the main driver, with incipient signs of improvement in trade that need to be confirmed, while the industrial recovery fails to gain momentum.

Geographies:Global

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Eurozone | Economic Watch – September

By , , ,

Economic recovery should continue in 3Q16 but at slower pace. Our estimates suggest quarterly GDP growth to decelerate slightly to +0.2% QoQ in 3Q16 -after a +0.3% QoQ figure in 2Q16-, in the back of still weak investment and lower contribution from net exports. Private consumption should remain as the main driver for GDP growth.

Units:
Geographies:Europe

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

ECB kept monetary policy stance unchanged

By , ,

The ECB kept rates unchanged and reaffirmed the plan to run the APP to March 2017 or beyond if needed. The GC did not discuss any measures (including an extension of the APP). The GC tasked the relevant committees to evaluate the options that ensure a smooth implementation of its purchase programme. The Staff barely changed its projections over the forecast horizon

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Eurozone | Brexit impact should be bounded, higher political and geopolitical risks

By , , , ,

Economic recovery continues at a moderate pace after Brexit, that should be limited through both trade and confidence channel. The ECB is ready to take further measures, likely an extension until September 2017 and a fine-tuning of the QE programme. We maintain our growth forecast at 1.6% in 2016 and revise downwards to 1.5% in 2017.

Units:
Geographies:Europe

Available in Spanish, English