Despite the drag from the conflict, we expect GDP growth to reach around 2.5% in the first half of 2026. Under our baseline scenario of gradually normalizing energy prices and a prudent policy mix, we maintain our 2026 GDP growth forecast at 3.0%.

We expect the disinflation process to remain broadly on track against a softer growth backdrop in the short term. Persistent inflationary pressures and external uncertainties warrant a more cautious policy outlook, while selective easing is likely to continue within an overall restrictive policy mix.