Hard and leading data indicate a quarterly GDP growth slowing down to 0.5–1.0% q/q in 3Q25 (vs 1.6% q/q in 2Q), driven by weakening signals in domestic demand. 2025 GDP growth will likely be in the range of 3.5–4%, so we evaluate the risks on our growth forecast of 3.7% as balanced.

Consumer inflation came in well above the market expectations at 3.2% m/m and 33.3% y/y. The deterioration in the underlying trend and its potential impact on still unanchored inflation expectations materially increase the likelihood of a year-end inflation of above 30%, also raising upside risks on the next year’s path.