Consumer price inflation came in at 1.84 % m/m in Aug26, slightly below our expectation and the consensus (1.95% m/m), lowering annual inflation to 31.5%. We maintain our year-end inflation forecast at 30% keeping in mind the volatility in energy prices, uncertainties in supply chains, and unanchored inflation expectations.

The Turkish economy grew by 2.3% y/y in 2Q26, below both our expectation (3%) and market consensus (2.9%), bringing growth in 1H26 to 2.5% y/y. Assuming a prudent policy mix going forward and no further escalation in geopolitical tensions, we maintain our 3.0% GDP growth forecast for 2026 with limited downside risks now.