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Carlos Serrano
Carlos Serrano

Chief Economist

Carlos Serrano is Chief Economist at BBVA Bancomer in Mexico. He oversees a team of economists conducting work on economics, financial markets and regulation. He is also member of the Asset and Liabilities and Regulatory Committees.

 

He holds masters and PhD degrees from the University of California at Berkeley, where he specialized in macroeconomics, international finance, and industrial organization. He obtained a B.S. in economics from Instituto Teconológio Autónomo deMéxico, ITAM.

 

In 2000 he was awarded the national prize on economic research, awarded annually by Banco Nacional de México.

 

Before joining BBVA, Carlos was executive vicepresident for regulatory policy at Mexico´s Banking and Securities Commission where he was in charge of designing regulation for banks, securities and derivative markets, broker dealers, and mutual funds. He was Mexico´s representative before the Basel and IOSCO committees.

 

He also worked at the World Bank where he was, among other positions, Country Economist for Peru, Paraguay, and Bolivia.

 

He has taught advanced macroeconomics and finance at ITAM.


Latest Publications

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Mexico | Fiscal Budget 2018: Responsible and based on realistic assumptions

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On September 8th, the SHCP submitted the fiscal budget for 2018 to Congress. There are three points worth highlighting: i) it is positive that it continues along the path towards fiscal consolidation; (ii) it is designed around realistic economic assumptions; and (iii) if approved, it will mean that debt as a percentage of GDP will continue its downward trajectory in 2018

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Mexican Financial System. September 2017

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Housing prices rise 6.88% in the second half of 2017. The Bank of Mexico announces a slow-down in the economy’s financing sources and uses. The rate of growth of the personal loan portfolio continues to slow. Credit card financing consolidated its recovery in 2016

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Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | 2018 Fiscal Program: proposal of fiscal consolidation effort of 0.5% of GDP

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The program is based on realistic economic assumptions. The continuation of fiscal consolidation is positive. The budget will mean that debt as a percentage of GDP will continue to decline in 2018

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Is it the end of DACA for 800,000 Dreamers? 630,000 are Mexicans

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The DHS will not be accepting new DACA applications and after 5 October there will be no further renewals. The underway initial and renewal requests will continue to be processed and will not be affected, and the current DACA benefits and work permits will be maintained until their expiration, which could be in up to 24 months

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Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Migration

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Income in Mexico and evolution of poverty: Notes on the new ENIGH 2016

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Appropriate the development of the Statistical Model to ensure historical comparability. The new ENIGH shows a decline in both poverty and extreme poverty compared to the year 2014; however, Mexico still faces important challenges in this area, since 43.6% and 7.6% of the population are in poverty and extreme poverty respectively.

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico City Urban Development Law: worrying economic policy

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On 1 August last the Mexico City Legislative Assembly approved certain changes to the Urban Development Law, although these have yet to be published in the Mexico City Gazette. This law contains some very worrying features which, if they come into force, will create very significant economic distortions

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2017

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We consider that the better than expected data for the first half and the momentum of external demand, observed at the time, are sufficient to upwardly revise our growth forecast for this year to 2.2%. By 2018, we anticipate GDP growth of 2%

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Should the corporate income tax rate be reduced?

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A few days ago Coparmex presented a document containing a series of tax policy proposals. I believe that some of them are right, while others require more discussion. Here, I refer to one in particular: Coparmex proposes a gradual reduction of the corporate income tax rate from its present level of 30% to 24.6%, which is the average rate applied in the OECD countries

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Mexican Financial System. August 2017

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The housing inventory continues to fall and is located below 250 thousand units. CNBV publishes its Report on Financial Savings and Financing in Mexico with figures to March 2017. Banco de México publishes a tool to analyse the conditions of automotive loans. Key regulation issues for Fintechs and financial services

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Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Banxico set to take a pause

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The next monetary policy meeting will be held on Thursday August 10th. We expect Banxico to hold the reference rate at 7.0% inaugurating a period of monetary pause

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in English

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Mexico Real Estate Outlook. First Half 2017

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The slowdown in construction has continued with growth of 1.8%, closing 2016 with an increase of 4.2% in building and a decline of 9.4% in civil engineering

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico’s credit outlook revised upwards, reflecting fiscal consolidation

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Standard and Poor’s revised Mexico’s sovereign credit outlook up to “stable”, from “negative”, reaffirming its rating at BBB+, two notches above the BBB- minimum required to count as investment grade

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | The US looks to keep the essence of NAFTA, but renegotiations will be complicated

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Even though the Summary of Objectives for the NAFTA Renegotiation contains some rhetoric elements among which the goal of reducing the US trade deficit with Mexico and Canada stands out, such objectives do not suggest deep changes to NAFTA

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Geographies:Mexico USA

Available in Spanish

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Mexico | Yearbook of migration and remittances 2017

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The Yearbook of Migration and Remittances Mexico 2017 is the result of a collaborative project between El Consejo Nacional de Población (CONAPO), BBVA Bancomer Foundation and BBVA Research, which integrates the key statistics on the different dimensions and facets of the migratory dynamics of Mexico and the world

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Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Migration

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. July 2017

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Mortgage rates are firmly on the rise. The CNBV has released an update on its Financial Inclusion Report. Banxico has updated its report on housing loan indicators. Payroll loans have become more sluggish in spite of the improved conditions as regards the sum borrowed and the lending rate

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish, English