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Carlos Serrano
Carlos Serrano

Chief Economist

Carlos Serrano is Chief Economist at BBVA Bancomer in Mexico. He oversees a team of economists conducting work on economics, financial markets and regulation. He is also member of the Asset and Liabilities and Regulatory Committees.

 

He holds masters and PhD degrees from the University of California at Berkeley, where he specialized in macroeconomics, international finance, and industrial organization. He obtained a B.S. in economics from Instituto Teconológio Autónomo deMéxico, ITAM.

 

In 2000 he was awarded the national prize on economic research, awarded annually by Banco Nacional de México.

 

Before joining BBVA, Carlos was executive vicepresident for regulatory policy at Mexico´s Banking and Securities Commission where he was in charge of designing regulation for banks, securities and derivative markets, broker dealers, and mutual funds. He was Mexico´s representative before the Basel and IOSCO committees.

 

He also worked at the World Bank where he was, among other positions, Country Economist for Peru, Paraguay, and Bolivia.

 

He has taught advanced macroeconomics and finance at ITAM.


Latest Publications

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Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. March 2019

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Financing provided to the non-financial private sector slowed in the second half of 2018. Housing prices rose by 7.9% in the first quarter of 2018. Market players focus on concerns around the financial situation of Pemex and the "patient" stance of the FED.

Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Fiscal reform in the United States: No significant effects yet for Mexico

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Effective from January 1, 2018, President Trump's fiscal reform enforced, among other aspects, a reduction of the federal corporate income tax rate from 35% to 20%. As soon as discussions on the reform began, concerns started to arise in Mexico regarding its possible impact on investment in our country.

Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico Banking Outlook. First half 2019

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In 2018, the main source of growth in bank credit granted to the private sector was that allocated to companies. Traditional deposits reverse their downward trend, albeit at a moderate pace. Consumer Credit: recent developments and analysis of the slowdown in its growth rate. Mexican corporations’ foreign debt: the scenario changes, but risks for the bank remain limited.

Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Banxico’s monetary policy pause will be short-lived

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We expect Banxico to cut rates two times this year, we do not rule out three rate cuts.

Geographies:Mexico

Available in English

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Economic Agenda 2019 Mexico - United States

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This Agenda presents the diffusion calendar for 2019 of economic indicators and relevant monetary policy events of Mexico and the United States; dates of important events such as the meetings of various relevant international entities such as: World Economic Forum, World Bank and International Monetary Fund; electoral calendar.

Geographies:USA Mexico

Available in Spanish

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Mexico | How do we tackle the Pemex situation?

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Recently, especially in the aftermath of Fitch downgrading Pemex's rating from BBB+ to BBB-, there has been nervousness in the markets because Pemex's situation is perceived as a significant risk to the country's macroeconomic stability.

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | The measures announced today do not solve Pemex’s structural problems

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Financial support from the federal government will buy time, but Pemex's credit rating remains at risk. In January, Fitch downgraded the Pemex rating from BBB+ to BBB- after the outlook was revised to negative in October last year.

Available in Spanish, English

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Banxico stays hawkish; a period of extended monetary policy pause the most likely scenario

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Banxico did not soften its tone; likely to remain hawkish in the near-term. Banxico unlikely to soften its stance in the near-term but the wording tempered the ready-to-hike disposition of the previous statement. We continue to expect the next move in the monetary policy rate to be down, but not until later in the year.

Geographies:Mexico

Available in English

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Banxico to begin a period of an extended monetary policy pause

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Fall in inflation along with lower risks takes further hikes in the near-term off the table. Balance of risks to inflation improved in the intermeeting period with the recent rally in the MXN combined with a larger-than-expected fall in inflation in the first half of January. We expect the next move in the monetary policy rate to be a cut, but not until later in the year.

Geographies:Mexico

Available in English

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Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. January 2019

By , , , , , , , ,

Automotive loans slow down their dynamism, but continue to boost consumer loans. Payroll loans recover dynamism after a year of reductions. Personal loans continue their slowdown and record lower portfolio quality. Banxico publishes its annual report on the actions taken to comply with the Transparency Act.

Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico Regional Sectoral Outlook. Second half 2018

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In the first half of 2018, the Mexican economy grew at a lower rate than expected, with the service sector contributing 86.9% of GDP growth, less than the 92.1% observed in 2017. Manufacturing industries recovered in 2017, contributing 11.8% of growth, although uncertainty in the first half of the year affected their growth potential.

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Proposed changes to the SAR Law w/potential benefits for workers and the system

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The most relevant proposed changes are: a) incorporation of returns in the determination of the fee collection scheme, b) greater flexibility of the investment regime, c) greater ease for workers to have voluntary savings, and d) transformation of the figure of "investment companies specialized in retirement funds" to "investment funds specialized in retirement funds".

Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish

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Mexico | Actions to boost the financial sector point in the right direction

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The objectives of the proposals are: a) to deepen both the banking sector and the stock market, b) to have more efficient payment metods for the population and, c) in general, to make more efficient the task of capturing and promoting savings, as well as channeling it to productive investment.

Available in Spanish

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Mexico | ENIF 2018: 63.2% of Mexicans use informal savings, 70.2% use informal credit

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The main results of ENIF 2018 (the National Survey on Financial Inclusion 2018) are being presented, and the situation and challenges that the government of AMLO and the financial institutions will face with regards to inclusion and financial education. 47.1% of the population has a bank or financial account (savings), 31.1% credit or credit card and 25.4% insurance.

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2018

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Global economy. Mexico, Economic Activity. Downward rigidity of core inflation and restrictive stance of Banxico. 2019 public accounts and budget. External accounts. Domestic assets are being affected by the new administration’s decisions.

Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English