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Carlos Serrano
Carlos Serrano

Chief Economist

Carlos Serrano is Chief Economist at BBVA Bancomer in Mexico. He oversees a team of economists conducting work on economics, financial markets and regulation. He is also member of the Asset and Liabilities and Regulatory Committees.

 

He holds masters and PhD degrees from the University of California at Berkeley, where he specialized in macroeconomics, international finance, and industrial organization. He obtained a B.S. in economics from Instituto Teconológio Autónomo deMéxico, ITAM.

 

In 2000 he was awarded the national prize on economic research, awarded annually by Banco Nacional de México.

 

Before joining BBVA, Carlos was executive vicepresident for regulatory policy at Mexico´s Banking and Securities Commission where he was in charge of designing regulation for banks, securities and derivative markets, broker dealers, and mutual funds. He was Mexico´s representative before the Basel and IOSCO committees.

 

He also worked at the World Bank where he was, among other positions, Country Economist for Peru, Paraguay, and Bolivia.

 

He has taught advanced macroeconomics and finance at ITAM.


Latest Publications

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Mexico |A "hawkish hold" with risks ahead in an unusual context, the best strategy for now

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Monetary Policy should not react to temporary supply shocks. In a close call (70-30 odds) we expect Banxico to hold rates steady at next week’s policy meeting. A hawkish pause is enough for the time being

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in English

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Mexico Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

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The economy contracted in the third quarter of the year. The preliminary QoQ growth rate, annualised, was negative at 0.8%

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Inflation, on a downward course for 2018

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The most recent inflation figure, corresponding to the first half of November, surprised on the upside. After falling in September and October, headline inflation showed an upturn from 6.4% to 6.6%. This increases the likelihood that the Banco de México will increase its monetary policy rate as a preventive measure

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Lower production from local refineries contributed to widening the trade deficit

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The trade balance posted a USD 2.1 billion deficit in October, a much higher number than the consensus expectation of USD 0.9 billion. This trade deficit is mostly explained by the oil trade deficit, which amounted to USD 1.8 billion

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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The Mexican financial system has the capacity to face adverse events: Banxico

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Banxico published its update of the Financial System Report 2017. The main risks identified for the country's financial stability are: i) an increase in inflation; ii) low economic growth; iii) lower oil revenues; and iv) the possibility of a sudden reversal of capital flows

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish

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Lower US corporate taxes would not reverse Mexico’s competitive advantage in manufacturing

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Mexico would continue to be more competitive than the United States in the production of manufactured goods even if the latter were to cut its corporate tax rate from 35% to 20%. The difference in labor costs alone is a sufficient factor for Mexico to remain more competitive than the US

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Geographies:Mexico USA

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. November 2017

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The global financial system faces lesser risks, but vulnerabilities and regulatory challenges persist. In September house prices rose less than inflation. Negative differentiation of domestic assets due to uncertainty caused by the renegotiation of NAFTA. Adjustments to the risk diversification rule

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Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish, English

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Turkey: The Central Bank of Turkey designs a mechanism to mitigate FX volatility

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The CBRT announced yesterday they will start to auction foreign exchange (FX) hedging instruments to enhance tools to manage corporates’ currency risk. We elaborate the main goal of the new tool as to reduce the Turkish lira volatility by both enhancing liquidity and increasing financial depth in the currency market.

Available in English

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Mexico addresses United States Tax Reform

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In the United States a reduction is envisaged in the federal tax rate on companies from 35 to 20%. In Mexico there are voices saying this would be more serious for the country’s economy than the breakdown of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). This is nonsense.

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Plan B: strengthen the domestic market and the rule of law

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In recent days we have again seen that there is still a risk of the Trump administration's leaving the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The exchange rate reflects this fear

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico Regional Sectorial Outlook. Second Half 2017

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We present the performance of the economies at state level, as well as their short-term perspective. The distinction is made between activities in order to understand their performance. Thus it was found that the vast majority of states have tertiary activities as the major source of economic momentum

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. October 2017

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Update of the risk assessment by the Financial System Stability Council (CESF). The value of construction companies’ activity fell 2.7% in July 2017. Losses for Emerging Market assets on investor expectations factoring in an additional hike by the Fed towards year end

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Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Both before and afterwards, NAFTA is advantageous for all three economies

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In the past few days the protectionist rhetoric wielded by several members of the US government, starting with president Donald Trump himself, has begun to be ratcheted up again. Once again the spurious argument has been peddled that NAFTA has been detrimental to the US economy and that this is borne out by the fact that the US is running a trade deficit with Mexico

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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NAFTA: beneficial for all three countries

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A few days ago, we saw the conclusion of the third round – out of the seven initially agreed - of the renegotiation process of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), a positive agreement for Mexico, the United States and Canada that, since it was signed in 1994, has led to trade between these countries almost quadrupling.

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Geographies:Global

Available in Spanish, English

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Earthquakes in Mexico: we are not changing our 2017 growth forecast

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Besides the economic losses caused by this natural disaster, the palpable effects are limited and only relevant to very specific regions and do not represent a major change in the economic growth rates at a national level. The earthquakes did not damage the productive capacity of the economy, as productive infrastructure was largely unaffected

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English