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Carlos Serrano
Carlos Serrano

Chief Economist

Carlos Serrano is Chief Economist at BBVA Bancomer in Mexico. He oversees a team of economists conducting work on economics, financial markets and regulation. He is also member of the Asset and Liabilities and Regulatory Committees.

 

He holds masters and PhD degrees from the University of California at Berkeley, where he specialized in macroeconomics, international finance, and industrial organization. He obtained a B.S. in economics from Instituto Teconológio Autónomo deMéxico, ITAM.

 

In 2000 he was awarded the national prize on economic research, awarded annually by Banco Nacional de México.

 

Before joining BBVA, Carlos was executive vicepresident for regulatory policy at Mexico´s Banking and Securities Commission where he was in charge of designing regulation for banks, securities and derivative markets, broker dealers, and mutual funds. He was Mexico´s representative before the Basel and IOSCO committees.

 

He also worked at the World Bank where he was, among other positions, Country Economist for Peru, Paraguay, and Bolivia.

 

He has taught advanced macroeconomics and finance at ITAM.


Latest Publications

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Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. July 2018

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Balance of risks of the Financial System Stability Council (CESF). Value of cars bought on credit shifted towards higher prices. The value of production of construction companies fell by 2.6% in the first four months of 2018. Reduced concerns about global trade tensions give respite to domestic assets in the second half of June.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | 98,470 votes from Mexicans abroad in 2018, 140% more than in 2012

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The preferred candidate of Mexicans abroad was Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who gained 63,863 votes, 64.86% of the total, followed by: Ricardo Anaya Cortes with 26,344 votes (26.75%), José Antonio Meade Kuribreña with 4,613 votes (4.28%) and Jaime Heliodoro Rodríguez Calderón with 1,868 votes (1.90%).

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | The fiscal challenges facing the new administration

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The next government will be faced with major challenges on the fiscal front. First it has to be said that the fact that the future prime minister and his chosen finance minister made it clear in their first messages that they are going to propose fiscal years resulting in primary fiscal surpluses.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. June 2018

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Domestic sources of financing supported the non-financial private sector. Housing prices rose by 8.7% in the first quarter of 2018. The prospect of a long drawn-out renegotiation of NAFTA leads to negative differentiation of domestic assets. Incorporation of new rating agencies. Banco de México: consultation on subordinated bonds.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish, English

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We expect Banxico to hike the policy rate

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A deterioration of inflation risks tips the balance towards a hike.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in English

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Mexico faced with global financial volatility

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The global economy is going through a spell of rising interest rates in the USA, with the dollar strengthening and international oil prices rising. In the past, this combination of events has led to periods of financial turbulence and capital outflows from emerging markets, which Mexico has not been able to avoid.

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico is going to need fiscal legislation that is actually complied with

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The country has made great advances in the last twenty or so years in designing an institutional framework that contributes towards having well-ordered public finances. In 2006 the Federal Budget and Fiscal Responsibility Act was passed.

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. May 2018

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The World Bank updated the “Global Financial Inclusion” (Global Findex) database. Housing construction projects could recover in the first half of 2018. Domestic assets in step with NAFTA negotiations. Adjustments regarding external auditing.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish, English

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Banco de México moves towards greater transparency

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The central bank recently announced a number of changes in its communication policy which in my opinion constitute a very significant step forward in terms of transparency.

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Monetary Aggregates and Domestic Financial Assets

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Banco de México (Mexico’s central bank, Banxico), published its Monetary Aggregates (MAs) based on the 2018 methodology. These new indicators replace those that the central bank published on a monthly basis until December 2017, based on the 199 methodology.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. April 2018

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Annual report of the Financial System Stability Council (CESF). The value of construction company activity fell by 3.5% in 2017. The markets steadied after the temporary upturn in volatility. Adjustments to the methodology for determining the degree of systemic importance of multiple purpose banking institutions.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Exchange rate and uncertainty

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There are two major sources of uncertainty regarding the Mexican economy: the outcome of the NAFTA negotiations, and the doubts that always surround presidential elections. How are these factors affecting the peso?

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Banxico will most likely keep rates unchanged and should strike a more dovish tone

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We expect Banxico to hold rates steady (at 7.50%) next Thursday. As we expected, disinflation pressures are taking hold and inflation is set to fall further; the inflation outlook improvement warrants a more dovish tone. We think Banxico is likely to signal a pause in the near-term. We expect Banxico to begin an easing cycle in October.

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in English

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Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. March 2018

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Banco de México publishes a new survey on bank credit conditions. Banco de México highlights the decrease in the use of financial resources by the public sector and a shift in intermediation towards the private sector. Housing prices rise 7.35% per annum in the fourth quarter of 2017. The markets steadied after the temporary upturn in volatility.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico Banking Outlook. First half 2018

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In 2017, credit to the non-financial private sector (consumer, companies and housing) and traditional bank deposits (sight + term) both slowed down. In the case of credit, in 2017 the portfolio only grew by half the growth rate observed in the previous year.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish, English