Senior Economist
Latest Publications
Argentina Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2017
The Argentine economy entered its third consecutive quarter of recovery. Growth forecasts of 2.8% for 2017 and 3% for 2018. Gradually decreasing trend in core inflation will be maintained in the coming months. Inflation as measured by INDEC's GBA CPI will reach 19.5% y/y at the end of 2017, still above the BCRA’s target of 12-17% YoY
Uruguay Economic Outlook. First Half 2017
Uruguay returns to growth, 1.9% in 2017 and 3% in 2018, with a strong impulse from investment. The fiscal balance is improving, although at a slower rate than expected. Inflation will remain outside the target range, reaching 8% in 2017 and 7.9% in 2018. The Fx rate will end 2017 at $31.1, avoiding a deterioration in competitiveness vis a vis its main regional partners
Argentina Economic Outlook. Second Quarter 2017
The economy continued to grow in 1Q17 in line with our forecast of 2.8% Y/Y. Inflation is moving away from the BCRA target and will reach 19.5% (INDEC) Y/Y in December, driven by tariffs and core inflation that does not yield. The restrictive monetary and accommodative fiscal policy mix strengthens the peso, but we expect a greater pace of depreciation in 2H17
Argentina Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2017
The economy began to recover in 4Q16 and will grow 2.8% in 2017 driven by investment. The downward stickiness of core inflation and the increase in tariffs will keep inflation at 20.8% YoY in 2017, and the CB in a tight stance. 2017 financial needs at USD 40 billion to be covered by debt issues will result in capital inflows and tend to appreciate the real exchange rate
Uruguay Economic Outlook. Second Half 2016
Uruguay will grow by just 0.5% in 2016, but expectations for 2017 are improving thanks to a positive contribution from external demand. Inflation is starting to ease thanks to reduced pressures from the exchange rate and from demand, but will once again exceed the target range.
Argentina Economic Outlook. Fourth Quarter 2016
The economic recovery is being delayed and GDP will fall 2% in 2016, but then grow 3.2% in 2017. Positive signs of the slowing of inflation as a result of the monetary policy of the Central Bank. The fiscal deficit in 2017 will be similar to 2016 and will be financed with more debt. The real exchange rate tends to appreciate due to increased foreign exchange earnings
Argentina Economic Outlook Third Quarter 2016
Argentina's GDP will fall 1% this year, but the impact of changing economic policies will be evident in 2017 with growth of 3.2% annually. Inflation is falling more slowly than expected. Gradual devaluation of the peso in 2H16 due to seasonal factors and the cut in interest rates, although the Central Bank will deal swiftly with any sudden movements
Uruguay Economic Outlook First Half 2016
Growth in GDP will be sluggish in 2016 (0.7%), marked by the stagnation in private consumption. GDP will increase 1.5% in 2017. The dollar will see out the year at $ 35.2 per unit, and will reach $37.1 at the end of the next year. Inflation: 9.2% in 2016 and 8.7% in 2017: inflation inertia will be constrained by real wages
Argentina Economic Outlook Second Quarter 2016
Argentina came out of default in May following rapid progress on the new government’s programme of reforms. The economy will contract by 0.4% in 2016 but will start growing again by more than 3% a year from 2017 on. The government is focusing on monetary policy, but inflation will not start to fall until the second half of 2016
Uruguay Economic Outlook Second Half 2015
Internal demand is contracting more rapidly than expected, driven by declining confidence indicators and a weaker labour market. A five-year budget with a fiscal adjustment which looks unambitious in the context of an optimistic macro scenario. Inflation will reach 9.2% in 2015 and 8.5% in 2016. The government is changing its strategy to undo wage indexation
LatAm | Has exchange rate pass-through to prices increased in Latin America?
After the later inflation surprise to the upside in South America, we estimate the degree of pass-through of the exchange rate to prices for each country of the region. In general, there is no strong evidence that it has increased significantly over the past year, but that it has been the sheer scale of depreciation which has driven inflation in Latin America.
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Uruguay Economic Outlook First half 2015
Uruguay has uncoupled from Mercosur and will grow at 2.6% in 2015 and 3.0% in 2016, in spite of the weaker stimulus from domestic demand