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Juan Manuel Manías
Juan Manuel Manías

Senior Economist

•M.A. in International Economics Relations (UBA, Argentina)
•B.A. in Economics (UBA, Argentina, Magna Cum Laude Honours)
•Previous work experience includes Banco Francés Financial Area since 2000.
•Joined Economic Research Department in 2009

Latest Publications

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Uruguay Economic Outlook. Second half 2017

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Uruguay will growth 3.2% this year. There will be the second fastest growing country in the region. We project a current account result of just 0.3% of GDP for 2018. We estimate that the dollar will end this year at $ 29.5 and $ 31.4 at the end of 2018. We have adjusted our estimate of inflation to 6.3% yoy and 7.0% yoy for 2017 and 2018 respectively

Available in Spanish, English

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Infographic Argentina Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

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Growth is accelerating and spreading across the board, but inflation is falling more slowly than expected. Private consumption and investment are the most dynamic components of aggregate demand

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

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Growth is accelerating and becoming more widespread, in line with our 2.8% forecast for 2017. Inflation is slowing but less than required to meet the targets of the Central Bank, which will maintain its tight stance on monetary policy. A positive result in the parliamentary elections will enable the government to make faster progress in the reform agenda

Available in Spanish, English

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Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2017

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The Argentine economy entered its third consecutive quarter of recovery. Growth forecasts of 2.8% for 2017 and 3% for 2018. Gradually decreasing trend in core inflation will be maintained in the coming months. Inflation as measured by INDEC's GBA CPI will reach 19.5% y/y at the end of 2017, still above the BCRA’s target of 12-17% YoY

Available in Spanish, English

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Uruguay Economic Outlook. First Half 2017

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Uruguay returns to growth, 1.9% in 2017 and 3% in 2018, with a strong impulse from investment. The fiscal balance is improving, although at a slower rate than expected. Inflation will remain outside the target range, reaching 8% in 2017 and 7.9% in 2018. The Fx rate will end 2017 at $31.1, avoiding a deterioration in competitiveness vis a vis its main regional partners

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Second Quarter 2017

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The economy continued to grow in 1Q17 in line with our forecast of 2.8% Y/Y. Inflation is moving away from the BCRA target and will reach 19.5% (INDEC) Y/Y in December, driven by tariffs and core inflation that does not yield. The restrictive monetary and accommodative fiscal policy mix strengthens the peso, but we expect a greater pace of depreciation in 2H17

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2017

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The economy began to recover in 4Q16 and will grow 2.8% in 2017 driven by investment. The downward stickiness of core inflation and the increase in tariffs will keep inflation at 20.8% YoY in 2017, and the CB in a tight stance. 2017 financial needs at USD 40 billion to be covered by debt issues will result in capital inflows and tend to appreciate the real exchange rate

Available in Spanish, English

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Uruguay Economic Outlook. Second Half 2016

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Uruguay will grow by just 0.5% in 2016, but expectations for 2017 are improving thanks to a positive contribution from external demand. Inflation is starting to ease thanks to reduced pressures from the exchange rate and from demand, but will once again exceed the target range.

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Geographies:Uruguay

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Fourth Quarter 2016

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The economic recovery is being delayed and GDP will fall 2% in 2016, but then grow 3.2% in 2017. Positive signs of the slowing of inflation as a result of the monetary policy of the Central Bank. The fiscal deficit in 2017 will be similar to 2016 and will be financed with more debt. The real exchange rate tends to appreciate due to increased foreign exchange earnings

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook Third Quarter 2016

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Argentina's GDP will fall 1% this year, but the impact of changing economic policies will be evident in 2017 with growth of 3.2% annually. Inflation is falling more slowly than expected. Gradual devaluation of the peso in 2H16 due to seasonal factors and the cut in interest rates, although the Central Bank will deal swiftly with any sudden movements

Available in Spanish, English

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Uruguay Economic Outlook First Half 2016

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Growth in GDP will be sluggish in 2016 (0.7%), marked by the stagnation in private consumption. GDP will increase 1.5% in 2017. The dollar will see out the year at $ 35.2 per unit, and will reach $37.1 at the end of the next year. Inflation: 9.2% in 2016 and 8.7% in 2017: inflation inertia will be constrained by real wages

Geographies:Uruguay

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook Second Quarter 2016

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Argentina came out of default in May following rapid progress on the new government’s programme of reforms. The economy will contract by 0.4% in 2016 but will start growing again by more than 3% a year from 2017 on. The government is focusing on monetary policy, but inflation will not start to fall until the second half of 2016

Available in Spanish, English

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Uruguay Economic Outlook Second Half 2015

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Internal demand is contracting more rapidly than expected, driven by declining confidence indicators and a weaker labour market. A five-year budget with a fiscal adjustment which looks unambitious in the context of an optimistic macro scenario. Inflation will reach 9.2% in 2015 and 8.5% in 2016. The government is changing its strategy to undo wage indexation

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Geographies:Uruguay

Available in Spanish, English

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LatAm | Has exchange rate pass-through to prices increased in Latin America?

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After the later inflation surprise to the upside in South America, we estimate the degree of pass-through of the exchange rate to prices for each country of the region. In general, there is no strong evidence that it has increased significantly over the past year, but that it has been the sheer scale of depreciation which has driven inflation in Latin America.

Available in Spanish