Juan Manuel Manías
•M.A. in International Economics Relations (UBA, Argentina)
•B.A. in Economics (UBA, Argentina, Magna Cum Laude Honours)
•Previous work experience includes Banco Francés Financial Area since 2000.
•Joined Economic Research Department in 2009
We revised slightly to the downside the growth of 2019 to -1.2% due to the prolongation of the monetary astringency, maintaining the vision of a positive quarterly growth since 1Q19. Inflation will fall more gradually than expected, reaching 35% YoY due to the volatility of the exchange rate and the higher indexation of the economy.
We maintain our growth forecast for Uruguay at 1.3% in 2019 and we revised it downwards in 2020 to 1.9% (before 2.2%). An environment of lower global growth, in Argentina and Brazil, as well as the lack of definition of the beginning of the third pulp mill construction will determine a moderate growth in the next two years.