Argentina Economic Outlook. June 2025

Summary

Argentina’s economy kept recovering in Q2 2025, driven by fiscal order, a re-monetization strategy, and a flexible exchange rate scheme. The outlook is still shaped by the electoral context and the challenge of ensuring lasting stability in a volatile global environment.

Key points

• Key points:
• The global outlook remains volatile and shaped by trade tensions. Global GDP is projected to grow 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, with the U.S. being most exposed to tariff-related impacts.
• Argentina’s recovery continues to strengthen: GDP is expected to grow 5.5% in 2025, with annual inflation projected at 30% and positive real interest rates supporting activity.
• Fiscal discipline is sustained: a primary surplus of 1.6% of GDP is projected for 2025, above the 1.3% target agreed with the IMF, amid spending reallocation and uneven tax dynamics.
• The new monetary and FX framework brought stability: the exchange rate gap closed, inflation eased more than expected, and the ARS/USD parity is projected to reach 1,400 by year-end.
• Economic activity is expanding unevenly across sectors; the labor market showed a temporary pause in Q1 2025, and its performance will remain a key point of attention in the coming months.

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