Dr. Le Xia is Chief Economist for Asia at BBVA Research. He joined BBVA in 2010.He also serves as a research fellow in International Monetary Institute at Renmin University of China. Prior to joining BBVA Research, Dr. Xia worked for the Treasury Department of Bank of China (Hong Kong). The research fields of Dr. Xia include macroeconomics in Asia economies, financial development in the Asian region and the economic integration between China and other emerging markets.He obtained his PhD from the University of Hong Kong and has a master degree from Renmin University of China.
The Chinese economy has experienced a bumpy recovery amid a disordered relaxation of "zero Covid" policy and a housing market adjustment. We maintain our 2022 growth projection at 3.6% while lowering 2023 GDP growth to 5.0% from 5.2%.
Chinese authorities have made a significant real estate policy turnaround from the 2021 regulatory storm to 2022 stimulus to ensure a soft-landing on the housing market.
We estimate China’s optimal foreign reserve level is around USD 2,769.3 billion, USD 454.5 billion lower than the current level. That means, there is still some buffer to reduce the reserve amid risks of western potential sanctions.