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Le Xia
Le Xia

Chief Economist

Dr. Le Xia is Chief Economist for Asia at BBVA Research. He joined BBVA in 2010.

 

He also serves as a research fellow in International Monetary Institute at Renmin University of China. Prior to joining BBVA Research, Dr. Xia worked for the Treasury Department of Bank of China (Hong Kong). The research fields of Dr. Xia include macroeconomics in Asia economies, financial development in the Asian region and the economic integration between China and other emerging markets.

 

He obtained his PhD from the University of Hong Kong and has a master degree from Renmin University of China.


Latest Publications

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China Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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Notwithstanding the authorities’ stepped-up efforts to cool down the property market and curb shadow banking, Chinese economy continued its good performance in Q2 with GDP outturn at 6.9% YoY, flat with the Q1 reading and higher than the market consensus. We raise our 2017 growth forecast to tally with the official target of 6.5% from 6.3%.

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China: June PMIs indicate an stronger-than-expected growth momentum

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China’s official manufacturing PMI (released by NBS last Friday) picked up significantly to 51.7 in June from 51.2 in May, well above market expectations (Consensus: 51). Following the same trend, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI announced today, which includes a survey sample tilting toward SMEs and exporters, increased to 50.4 in June from 49.6 in the previous month.

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China | Vulnerability sentiment deteriorates in June

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) deteriorated in June, dragged by Housing and Exchange Rate component, which together offset a stable SOE Index and improving Shadow Banking Index. The deleveraging campaign has gained traction, with notable easing in shadow lending growth, though concerns over its effectiveness continues to undermine sentiment.

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China | Economic moderation continues

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After registering a stronger-than-expected performance in Q1, Chinese economy continued its moderation in May, reflected in a batch of important activity indicators reported today. Growth moderation is partly due to the authorities’ monetary prudence targeted at shadow banking and the overheating property market. We maintain our growth projection of 6.3% for 2017.

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China: Vulnerability sentiment improved notably in May

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) improved notably in May, led by Housing, SOE and Shadow Banking components, which offset a deterioration in Exchange Rate Vulnerability Index. The improvement in CVSI reflects underlying investor confidence that macro-financial headwinds facing China still remain manageable amid policy efforts to anchor financial stability.

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China : PBOC tweaks model guiding Yuan fix to underpin financial stability

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On May 26th, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced that, henceforth, it would add a ‘counter-cyclical adjustment factor’ to its model guiding daily USDCNY midpoint fixing. The tweak aims to reduce excess Yuan volatility and curb one-way bets by easing ‘herd behavior’, but risks backpedaling Yuan exchange rate regime to the one prior to the reform in August 2015.

Units:
Geographies:Asia China

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Financial deleveraging: two steps forward; one step back

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After months of persistent regulatory tightening in domestic financial markets, China’s authorities unexpectedly fine-tuned their stance of monetary prudence by injecting liquidity into the banking sector. We interpret the authorities’ strategy as “two steps forward one step back”. After the market stabilizes and absorbs their messages, they are set to leap forward again.

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China | Now comes moderation

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After registering a stronger-than-expected performance in Q1, China’s economy started to show more signs of moderation in April. Growth moderation is due in part to the authorities’ monetary prudence and tight regulations targeted at the risky shadow banking activities as well as the overheating property market.

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Tracking chinese vulnerability in real time using Big Data

Document Number 17/13

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We develop an indicator to track vulnerability sentiment in China. In order to ensure robustness and depth, we use a combination of traditional macroeconomic and financial time series with textual analysis using Big Data techniques.The index is composed by the following dimensions: state owned enterprises; shadow banking; housing market bubble and exchange rate market.

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China | Vulnerability sentiment edging towards neutral

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) moderated in April after improving since July 2016. The CVSI is now edging to neutral, however the components of the index show divergence. The moderation can be related to a decline in housing and FX components. The shadow banking component remained positive on a tighter monetary policy stance and macroprudential measures.

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China Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2017

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Q1 GDP edged up to 6.9% YoY, we expect 2017 annual growth rate would not deviate much from the newly set official target of around 6.5%. Prudent monetary policy and tight regulations start to effect .RMB exchange rate and foreign reserves has stabilised. Downside risks: housing bubbles ; currency depreciation; indebtedness of the corporate sector and shadow banking.

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China | Decline in foreign reserves won’t grind to a halt in 2017

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China’s foreign reserves seem to have stabilized at the beginning of the year. By decomposing the change of foreign reserves in 2016, we make projections of foreign reserves at end-2017 under two scenarios with distinct key assumptions. To avert a swift depletion of foreign reserves, the authorities need to prevent large swings in the exchange rate.

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China | Xiongan New Area Announced

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China announced the establishment of a new economic zone 100km South of the capital, Beijing. The Xiongan New Area will encompass three counties, including Xiongxian, Rongcheng and Anxin. The area will sit at the center of a triangle formed by the capital, Beijing; one of North China’s busiest port cities, Tianjin; and the capital of Hebei province, Shijiazhuang.

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Tracking Chinese Vulnerability in Real Time Using Big Data

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We develop a new indicator to track Chinese vulnerability sentiment in real time, combining Big Data with key financial indicators and official statistics. Our Chinese Vulnerability and Sentiment Index (CVSI) shows improving risk narratives since 2H16, in line with a pick-up in economic activity and a change in the policy mix put in place by Chinese authorities.

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China, a balance between growth, risks and globalisation

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The National People's Congress is without doubt one of the most important events in China’s political calendar. This year is especially important given that the 19th Congress of the Communist Party of China will take place in October, where we will oversee the most important leadership reshuffle since 2012, when Xi Jinping became president.

Available in Spanish, English