alert_serviceYour space user_add New user

Forgot your password?
Stay logged in to leave
Publication date
From
To
Le Xia
Le Xia

Chief Economist

Dr. Le Xia is Chief Economist for Asia at BBVA Research. He joined BBVA in 2010.

 

He also serves as a research fellow in International Monetary Institute at Renmin University of China. Prior to joining BBVA Research, Dr. Xia worked for the Treasury Department of Bank of China (Hong Kong). The research fields of Dr. Xia include macroeconomics in Asia economies, financial development in the Asian region and the economic integration between China and other emerging markets.

 

He obtained his PhD from the University of Hong Kong and has a master degree from Renmin University of China.


Latest Publications

Catalog Icon

China | Economic moderation continues

By ,

After registering a stronger-than-expected performance in Q1, Chinese economy continued its moderation in May, reflected in a batch of important activity indicators reported today. Growth moderation is partly due to the authorities’ monetary prudence targeted at shadow banking and the overheating property market. We maintain our growth projection of 6.3% for 2017.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

China: Vulnerability sentiment improved notably in May

By , , ,

Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) improved notably in May, led by Housing, SOE and Shadow Banking components, which offset a deterioration in Exchange Rate Vulnerability Index. The improvement in CVSI reflects underlying investor confidence that macro-financial headwinds facing China still remain manageable amid policy efforts to anchor financial stability.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

China : PBOC tweaks model guiding Yuan fix to underpin financial stability

By ,

On May 26th, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced that, henceforth, it would add a ‘counter-cyclical adjustment factor’ to its model guiding daily USDCNY midpoint fixing. The tweak aims to reduce excess Yuan volatility and curb one-way bets by easing ‘herd behavior’, but risks backpedaling Yuan exchange rate regime to the one prior to the reform in August 2015.

Units:
Geographies:Asia China

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Financial deleveraging: two steps forward; one step back

By , ,

After months of persistent regulatory tightening in domestic financial markets, China’s authorities unexpectedly fine-tuned their stance of monetary prudence by injecting liquidity into the banking sector. We interpret the authorities’ strategy as “two steps forward one step back”. After the market stabilizes and absorbs their messages, they are set to leap forward again.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

China | Now comes moderation

By ,

After registering a stronger-than-expected performance in Q1, China’s economy started to show more signs of moderation in April. Growth moderation is due in part to the authorities’ monetary prudence and tight regulations targeted at the risky shadow banking activities as well as the overheating property market.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Tracking chinese vulnerability in real time using Big Data

Document Number 17/13

By , , , ,

We develop an indicator to track vulnerability sentiment in China. In order to ensure robustness and depth, we use a combination of traditional macroeconomic and financial time series with textual analysis using Big Data techniques.The index is composed by the following dimensions: state owned enterprises; shadow banking; housing market bubble and exchange rate market.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

China | Vulnerability sentiment edging towards neutral

By , , ,

Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) moderated in April after improving since July 2016. The CVSI is now edging to neutral, however the components of the index show divergence. The moderation can be related to a decline in housing and FX components. The shadow banking component remained positive on a tighter monetary policy stance and macroprudential measures.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

China Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2017

By ,

Q1 GDP edged up to 6.9% YoY, we expect 2017 annual growth rate would not deviate much from the newly set official target of around 6.5%. Prudent monetary policy and tight regulations start to effect .RMB exchange rate and foreign reserves has stabilised. Downside risks: housing bubbles ; currency depreciation; indebtedness of the corporate sector and shadow banking.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

China | Decline in foreign reserves won’t grind to a halt in 2017

By ,

China’s foreign reserves seem to have stabilized at the beginning of the year. By decomposing the change of foreign reserves in 2016, we make projections of foreign reserves at end-2017 under two scenarios with distinct key assumptions. To avert a swift depletion of foreign reserves, the authorities need to prevent large swings in the exchange rate.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

China | Xiongan New Area Announced

By ,

China announced the establishment of a new economic zone 100km South of the capital, Beijing. The Xiongan New Area will encompass three counties, including Xiongxian, Rongcheng and Anxin. The area will sit at the center of a triangle formed by the capital, Beijing; one of North China’s busiest port cities, Tianjin; and the capital of Hebei province, Shijiazhuang.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Tracking Chinese Vulnerability in Real Time Using Big Data

By , , ,

We develop a new indicator to track Chinese vulnerability sentiment in real time, combining Big Data with key financial indicators and official statistics. Our Chinese Vulnerability and Sentiment Index (CVSI) shows improving risk narratives since 2H16, in line with a pick-up in economic activity and a change in the policy mix put in place by Chinese authorities.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

China, a balance between growth, risks and globalisation

By ,

The National People's Congress is without doubt one of the most important events in China’s political calendar. This year is especially important given that the 19th Congress of the Communist Party of China will take place in October, where we will oversee the most important leadership reshuffle since 2012, when Xi Jinping became president.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

China | Strong start to 2017 but headwinds abound

By ,

Last year’s recovery continued into 2017. The latest data releases point towards another month of strong growth. In particular, Fixed asset investments and industrial production strengthened in February, while trade figures improved in line with a pickup in global trade. We expect growth to edge down towards 6.0-6.5% by year-end as headwinds continue.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

China | Monetary Policy: New Framework, New Stance

By ,

The People’s Bank of China is establishing a “corridor system” as its new monetary policy framework.The central bank will align the policy rate target with their desired levels via open market operation (OMO).In this year,the stance of monetary policy is likely to be prudent in real sense.

Geographies:Asia China

Available in English

Catalog Icon

February PMIs show the recovery gains momentum while headwinds loom large

By ,

China’s official manufacturing PMI (released by NBS today) picked up to 51.6 in February from 51.3 in January, well above market expectations (Consensus: 51.2).Both of the manufacturing PMI outturns have been above the 50 watershed level in 7 consecutive months since last August , suggesting the economic recovery continues with a solid pace.

Units:
Geographies:China Asia

Available in English

Catalog Icon

USA and China: the new rules of the game

By ,

Tensions between the USA and China have been rising since Donald Trump was elected president in November of last year. During his election campaign, Trump accused China of manipulating its exchange rate, threatening to introduce trade tariffs of 45% on imports from Asian industrial power.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

China Economic Outlook: First Quarter of 2017

By ,

Economic activities continued to gain traction through Q4, enabling the authorities to meet their full-year target in 2016. The authorities recently fine-tuned their policy stance and put more emphasis on the stability of exchange rate. Downside risks: uncertainties from Trump’s policies ; currency depreciation; indebtedness of the corporate sector and shadow banking .

Available in English

Catalog Icon

China | On the way to the floating regime: RMB is set to depreciate

By ,

We believe the exchange rate regime of the RMB will ultimately shift to a floating one as other major economies in the world. The floating of the RMB could come in the second half of 2018. Although certain degree of currency overshooting is inevitable, the final floating will help China’s economy restore its external balance and push up the exchange rate in the long run.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

China | Trump, tariffs and tensions

By , , ,

Donald Trump will be inaugurated as 45th President of the United States today. During his campaign, he pledged to label China a “currency manipulator” and impose a 45% tariff on Chinese imports during his first day in office. While the likelihood of this scenario remains low, a number of factors point towards a more protectionist agenda under Trump.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

China | Slowed growth on a soft-landing track

By ,

China’s 2016 Q4 GDP came out today at 6.8% y/y, marginally higher than the market expectations and the previous reading. The 2016 full year GDP turned out to be 6.7%, surpassing the authorities’ target of 6.5%. December FAI and IP decelerated marginally from their previous readings. As growth headwinds are still ahead, we expect growth to continue its downtrend this year.

Available in English