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Le Xia
Le Xia

Chief Economist

Dr. Le Xia is Chief Economist for Asia at BBVA Research. He joined BBVA in 2010.

 

He also serves as a research fellow in International Monetary Institute at Renmin University of China. Prior to joining BBVA Research, Dr. Xia worked for the Treasury Department of Bank of China (Hong Kong). The research fields of Dr. Xia include macroeconomics in Asia economies, financial development in the Asian region and the economic integration between China and other emerging markets.

 

He obtained his PhD from the University of Hong Kong and has a master degree from Renmin University of China.


Latest Publications

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China | ODI from the Middle Kingdom: What’s next after the big turnaround?

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China’s ODI saw a big turnaround as its strong growth momentum in 2016 came to a halt last year due to the authorities’ restrictive measures to curb capital outflows. We use a deal-based database by CGTI to detect where China’s ODI goes. Despite uncertain global political and economic environment, outbound investment by Chinese firms is likely to rise over the long term.

Available in English

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China | Vulnerability sentiment resumed upward trend in 2018

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index resumed its upward trend in 2018, underpinned by a stronger GDP and on-going efforts to curb financial risks. Housing vulnerability index has seen significant improvement, SOE index rebounded somewhat despite deteriorating earlier. Shadow banking vulnerability index stabilized while Exchange rate index declined on RMB appreciation.

Available in English

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China Economic Outlook. First quarter 2018

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The Q4 GDP growth came at 6.8% y/y, marginally surprised the market to the upside. China’s GDP grew by 6.9% in 2017, higher than the 2016 reading of 6.7%. That being said, China has successful staged a growth recovery last year, synchronized with the rest of the world, despite headwinds from prudential monetary policy, financial tightening as well as supply-side reforms.

Available in English

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China | One Belt One Road – What’s in it for Latin America?

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In this watch, we examine China-Latin America economic ties and explore ways to deepen integration between the two under the One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative. Our analysis also includes the use of Big Data to measure media coverage and sentiment on news related to OBOR and Chinese infrastructure investments in Latin America.

Available in English

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China | A soft-landing in 2017

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December indicators reported today, together with Q4 GDP outturns, marginally exceeded market expectations. For 2017, China’s economy achieved a soft-landing synchronized with the rest of the world. Looking ahead, the economy is expected to continue its moderation as the authorities’ stepped-up efforts to rein in shadow banking activities are set to weigh on growth.

Available in English

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China | The changing role of RRR in new monetary policy framework

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The recent two unconventional RRR cuts suggest the authorities set out to dethrone RRR from a monetary loosening or tightening tool. Instead, the PBoC now uses RRR cuts for liquidity management purpose. As monetary policy framework is migrating to a “corridor system”, the traditional quantitative tools adjustments have to give their way to new price tools.

Available in English

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China | From great miracle to great moderation: potential GDP estimation of China

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In the recently concluded 19th Party’s National Congress, the authorities have come up with a two-stage development plan. Using traditional Cobb-Douglas production function to gauge China’s potential GDP, we found China’s per capita GDP can increase to USD 21,000 (constant price of today) by 2035, in line with the authorities’ target of achieving “social modernization”.

Available in English

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China | Vulnerability sentiment ends 2017 on a high note

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) ended 2017 on a high note, extending previous gains, underpinned by the shift in policy focus towards quality of growth, PBOC’s prudent monetary policy stance, a stable yuan and ongoing efforts to curb risks to financial stability emanating from housing, SOE and the shadow banking sector.

Available in English

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China | Growth moderation continues

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November economic indicators reported today were generally below the previous readings. Meanwhile, the credit figures kept at a relatively high level as the authorities want to maintain market liquidity toward end-year. As anticipated, the economy continued its moderation in Q4 due to the authorities’ policy initiatives.

Available in English

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China | Vulnerability sentiment plateaus in November

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) held steady in November, remaining well within the positive territory although softer compared to its peak achieved during the 19th Chinese Party Congress. The past month saw authorities intensify efforts to curb risks to financial stability emanating from shadow banking, housing market and the SOEs.

Available in English

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China’s role in Latin America: Participation & Consequences

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This presentation touches various issues: evolution of bilateral trade and investment, LatAm’s export dependency on China, China’s OFDI and financial influence in LatAm and existing critiques on China’s role in LatAms and new opportunities.

Available in English

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China | One Belt One Road – progress and prospects

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The One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative provides an overarching framework for China to achieve its economic and strategic ambitions. China’s large industrial overcapacity, surplus capital and efforts to secure resources complement the need to address infrastructure and funding constraints in OBOR countries. That said, challenges faced by OBOR initiative are significant.

Available in English

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China: Vulnerability sentiment extends gains in October

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) notched its fourth straight month of improvement in October, reflecting favourable policy mix, marked by accommodative fiscal policy to stabilise growth and prudent monetary and regulatory measures to curb financial fragility risks. China’s focus on quality of growth at 19th Party Congress bodes well for CVSI going forward.

Available in English

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China Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

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China's economy showed signs of moderation in the third quarter due to a number of policy initiatives .To reflect the strong 1H growth and mitigated risks, we raise our 2017 growth forecast to 6.7%. Looking ahead, the dynamic of China’s economy will highly depend on the authorities’ attitudes towards the balance between pursuing growth and maintaining financial stability.

Available in English

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China: Vulnerability sentiment stays upbeat in September

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) for September held on to its recent gains with regulators focusing on maintaining macro-financial stability ahead of the crucial 19th Chinese Communist Party Congress (CCP). Activity moderation extended in August, led by policy efforts to reduce overcapacity, curb leverage and reduce housing inventory.

Available in English