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Le Xia
Le Xia

Chief Economist

Dr. Le Xia is Chief Economist for Asia at BBVA Research. He joined BBVA in 2010.

 

He also serves as a research fellow in International Monetary Institute at Renmin University of China. Prior to joining BBVA Research, Dr. Xia worked for the Treasury Department of Bank of China (Hong Kong). The research fields of Dr. Xia include macroeconomics in Asia economies, financial development in the Asian region and the economic integration between China and other emerging markets.

 

He obtained his PhD from the University of Hong Kong and has a master degree from Renmin University of China.


Latest Publications

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China’s role in Latin America: Participation & Consequences

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This presentation touches various issues: evolution of bilateral trade and investment, LatAm’s export dependency on China, China’s OFDI and financial influence in LatAm and existing critiques on China’s role in LatAms and new opportunities.

Available in English

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China | One Belt One Road – progress and prospects

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The One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative provides an overarching framework for China to achieve its economic and strategic ambitions. China’s large industrial overcapacity, surplus capital and efforts to secure resources complement the need to address infrastructure and funding constraints in OBOR countries. That said, challenges faced by OBOR initiative are significant.

Available in English

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China: Vulnerability sentiment extends gains in October

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) notched its fourth straight month of improvement in October, reflecting favourable policy mix, marked by accommodative fiscal policy to stabilise growth and prudent monetary and regulatory measures to curb financial fragility risks. China’s focus on quality of growth at 19th Party Congress bodes well for CVSI going forward.

Available in English

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China Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

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China's economy showed signs of moderation in the third quarter due to a number of policy initiatives .To reflect the strong 1H growth and mitigated risks, we raise our 2017 growth forecast to 6.7%. Looking ahead, the dynamic of China’s economy will highly depend on the authorities’ attitudes towards the balance between pursuing growth and maintaining financial stability.

Available in English

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China: Vulnerability sentiment stays upbeat in September

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) for September held on to its recent gains with regulators focusing on maintaining macro-financial stability ahead of the crucial 19th Chinese Communist Party Congress (CCP). Activity moderation extended in August, led by policy efforts to reduce overcapacity, curb leverage and reduce housing inventory.

Available in English

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China | Early fruits of corporate deleveraging add to growth resilience

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The total debt level of China’s corporate sector remain a great concern. However, some firm-level indicators have shown improvement in the indebtedness of non-SOEs. The early fruits of corporate deleveraging have reinforced our confidence in China’s economic prospect, but there is still a long way to cover before declaring a decisive victory of the deleveraging campaign.

Available in English

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China | Upbeat August PMIs point to a diminished tail risk for China’s economy

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Despite that July activity indicators slightly disappointed the market, China’s economy seemingly resumed its momentum in August. The official manufacturing PMI picked up to 51.7 from 51.4 of the previous month. Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI surged to 51.6 from 51.1 in the previous month, beating the market consensus at 51.0.

Available in English

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China | Vulnerability sentiment improves in August

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) improved in August, underpinned by gains in the SOE, Housing and Shadow banking component while FX speculative pressures persist despite slowing capital outflows.

Available in English

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China | Taming China’s shadow banking sector

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China’s shadow banking sector evolved rapidly over the past few years as regulators and financial institutions played a “Whack-A-Mole” game. It occurs in the context of China’s ongoing financial liberalization. Our empirical analysis indicates that the current financial deleveraging and regulation tightening will drag on growth but the impact should be limited.

Available in English

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China | Growth started to feel the pain of regulatory tightening

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After registering a stronger-than-expected performance in the first half of the year, Chinese economy started to show more signs of moderation in July, in line with our expectation. In particular, the authorities’ prudent monetary stance and stepped-up regulatory efforts to tackle a number of financial vulnerabilities seemingly have transmitted to the real economy.

Available in English

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China | Will the current RMB appreciation sustainable?

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The strong performance of the RMB exchange rate in recent months has surprised the market, behind which are a confluence of factors: (i) a steep deprecation of US dollar against other major currencies; (ii) the stronger-than-expected growth momentum in China; (iii) the effective implementation of a series of measures aiming to “promote capital inflows and limit outflows”.

Available in English

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China: Vulnerability sentiment boosted by solid economic recovery &clarified policy stance

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) improved remarkably in July, in particular led by both SOE and Shadow Banking components. Meanwhile, the components of the Exchange Rate and Housing Vulnerability Index also rebounded from the previous low levels, now staying within the neighbourhood of natural level.

Available in English

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China | Solid recovery continues in July

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Despite a lull of moderation in April-May, China’s economic recovery has staged a comeback at mid-year. The official manufacturing PMI in July remained in the expansionary territory at 51.4 (consensus: 51.5), although slightly below the previous strong reading at 51.7. Meanwhile, Caixin China Manufacturing PMI significantly surged to 51.1 from 50.4 in the previous month。

Available in English

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China Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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Notwithstanding the authorities’ stepped-up efforts to cool down the property market and curb shadow banking, Chinese economy continued its good performance in Q2 with GDP outturn at 6.9% YoY, flat with the Q1 reading and higher than the market consensus. We raise our 2017 growth forecast to tally with the official target of 6.5% from 6.3%.

Available in English

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Fintech in Emerging ASEAN: Trends and Prospects

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Growth of emerging ASEAN, chiefly Indonesia & Philippines, is underpinned by improving demographic dividend and rapid urbanization. ASEAN banks benefit from adequate capital buffers and manageable asset quality concerns. ASEAN banks profitability trends are stabilizing post contraction over the past three years.

Available in English