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Marcos Dal Bianco
Marcos Dal Bianco is since July 2019 Chief Economist at the Argentine Unit of BBVA Research. Previously, he has been Principal Economist at the Argentine Unit, Senior Economist at Financial Scenarios Unit in Madrid, Spain; and Research Assistant at the Department of Economics of IAE Business School.
Marcos is since March 2017 Professor of Monetary Theory and Policy at the University of Buenos Aires, and has been Professor of Macroeconomics, Econometrics and Microeconomics in undergraduate and graduate courses at various Universities in Argentina and Spain (UBA, U. Di Tella, U. Miguel Hernández, U. of Alicante, IAE Business School), and has participated as expositor and commentator in academic conferences.
He has obtained the Bachelor in Economics in 1999 and a Master in Economics in 2008 at the University of Buenos Aires, Argentina, and obtained the Master in Economics in 2006 and the PhD in Economics in 2010 at the University of Alicante, Spain. He is author of several papers in applied economics published in international journal as the “Journal of International Money and Finance”, “Emerging Markets Finance and Trade” and “Economics Letters”. He is also member of the Argentine Association of Political Economy.
2023 is a year with a heavy electoral calendar, in a context of growing social concern regarding macroeconomic imbalances and a historic drought. We expect sustained pressures in the FX market throughout the year, with consequences on the GDP and financial volatility.
The main macroeconomic imbalances, specially the fiscal one, have been curbed in the second half of 2022 after the change of Economy Minister. It will be crucial to maintain this dynamic during the next election year. The current drought entails a severe risk for the agricultural sector and the exports of 2023.
With a better than expected 2022, Argentina will face a complex 2023, with a drop in the level of activity and high inflation that will lead to a stagflation scenario. The main challenges will be the rollover of debt in the local market for challenging amounts and the vulnerability of the FX rate scheme.