Senior Economist
Maria Martinez obtained a Master’s in Quantitative Finance at the Escuela de Finanzas Aplicadas (AFI) and a Master´s in Economics and Finance at Universidad Complutense de Madrid. She obtained her degree in Economics at Universidad de Oviedo.
She joined BBVA Research in 2009, and she is currently senior economist in the Financial Global Markets Unit. Prior to this position she was a Research Assistant in the Financial Stability Department at the Bank of Spain and an analyst and consultant in the Transfer Pricing Department in KPMG.
Latest Publications
ECB Watch: The ECB will go ahead with QE decisions in October
Effects from euro appreciation and QE strategy dominate today’s meeting. After very preliminary discussion on alternative scenarios to calibrate QE, decisions will most likely be taken in October. The volatility of the exchange rate is seen as a source of uncertainty, but the new projections are optimistic: stronger growth and only a slight downward revision of inflation
ECB Watch: Further steps in the autumn
As widely expected, the ECB remained on hold, in a unanimous decision. The discussion on tapering of QE to take place in the Autumn, most likely in September. The ECB is paying “attention” to the appreciation of the euro
ECB Watch: A first tweak in the forward guidance
The ECB remove the easing bias on rates. Growth projections are more positive while the inflation outlook remains unchanged despite lower headline inflation projections. In September, we expect the ECB to open the door to tapering next year
ECB closer to a neutral balance of risks
There was neither a discussion on the exit strategy nor clear hints of an early shift in the policy stance but risks to growth are more balanced (though still downwards). We expect some changes in forward guidance in June
Rising Libor is due to repricing and not distress
Libor rate rise pushed by regulation driven structural changes in the U.S. money market. The spill-over effects in other regions have not been huge. However, hereinafter, international markets have to get used to more expensive financing in USD, which poses an additional risk for bank´s profitability in the current context of ultra-low interest rates
ECB kept monetary policy stance unchanged
The ECB kept rates unchanged and reaffirmed the plan to run the APP to March 2017 or beyond if needed. The GC did not discuss any measures (including an extension of the APP). The GC tasked the relevant committees to evaluate the options that ensure a smooth implementation of its purchase programme. The Staff barely changed its projections over the forecast horizon
Monitoring the expansion of the ECB balance sheet (July 2016)
In July, the asset purchase programme (APP) exceeded the monthly objective of €80 billion, with €80.6 billion being acquired. In July, the ECB kept monetary policy unchanged, although it said it needs more time to re-evaluate the degree of flexibility of it. It is very likely that the ECB will take some additional steps in September, but not radical measures.
Further action likely in September
The ECB has left the monetary policy stance unchanged. The ECB needs more time to reassess the degree of policy accommodation. Unrelated to monetary policy, Draghi opens the possibility of a “public backstop” for NPL’s.
Wait-and-see stance
As expected, at today’s monetary policy meeting there were no changes in the ECB´s monetary policy stance, as the central bank left the key policy rate unchanged at 0.0% and the deposit rate at -0.4%. The ECB’s Staff macroeconomic projections barely changed over the forecast horizon. The focus is on the implementation of the measures announced in March
ECB Minutes: 21 April meeting
The minutes confirmed that the GC was unanimous in its commitment to deliver on its mandate. The GC agreed that there was no need to consider any change in its current monetary policy stance. The ECB strongly reiterated the need for other policy areas to contribute to euro area economic recovery
Monitoring the expansion of the ECB balance sheet (April 2016)
In April, the asset purchase programme (APP) exceeded the monthly objective of €80 billion, which includes public and private assets, with €85.2 billion being acquired. In its April meeting, the ECB kept both interest rates and non-conventional measures unchanged, along with the downward bias. We are not expecting any additional measures in the next few months.
ECB keeps stance unchanged
Rates were kept unchanged and the tone remained dovish. No hints of any policy change in the near term. The ECB unveiled further details of the CSPP.
Monitoring the expansion of the ECB balance sheet (March 2016)
In March, the asset purchase programme (APP), which includes public and private assets, exceeded the monthly objective of €60 billion, with €61.3 billion being acquired. The ECB announced a new package of measures in March, stressing that there is room to adopt more, if necessary, preferring unconventional measures over further rate cuts.
ECB Minutes | 10 March meeting
A large majority of voting members supported the proposed policy package, but support for the various components of the package was varied. The ECB discussed introducing a negative-rate exemption, but finally this was rejected as "too complex." The minutes revealed that members do not rule out the possibility of further cuts if warranted by the outlook for price stability
Further easing measures favor unconventional measures over rate cuts
The ECB cut rates to record lows, increased the size -and widened the scope - of its APP and introduced a new round of (attractive) TLTROs. The Staff revised its inflation projections significantly downwards, as expected. The ECB remains vigilant and ready to act if necessary, favoring further “unconventional measures” over (not-excluded) additional rate cuts.
