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María Martínez

Maria Martinez obtained a Master’s in Quantitative Finance at the Escuela de Finanzas Aplicadas (AFI) and a Master´s in Economics and Finance at Universidad Complutense de Madrid. She obtained her degree in Economics at Universidad de Oviedo.

 

She joined BBVA Research in 2009, and she is currently senior economist in the Financial Global Markets Unit. Prior to this position she was a Research Assistant in the Financial Stability Department at the Bank of Spain and an analyst and consultant in the Transfer Pricing Department in KPMG.


Latest Publications

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The ECB delivers on QE exit and gives strong guidance on rates

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The Asset Purchase Programme will end in December 2018. However, interest rates will remain on hold at least until the summer 2019, later than expected. Macro projections were revised in line with expectations: GDP down in 2018 to 2.1% and inflation up in 2018 and 2019 to 1.7%.

Available in Spanish, English

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The power of the ECB’s words and tone

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The way the European Central Bank modulates its tone with each announcement has recently become an important tool for keeping track of monetary policy. This has come about since central banks have added specific commitments and credible and transparent communication to their toolbox.

Geographies:Europe

Available in Spanish, English

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ECB Watch | Draghi calm on recent data but more vigilant on protectionism

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The ECB left the main lines of its forward guidance unchanged. Draghi did not sound much worried about growth moderation but vigilant on protectionism. There was no discussion on the next steps of monetary policy.

Available in Spanish, English

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European Central Bank's monetary policy tone index

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This Economic Watch introduces the European Central Bank's (ECB) Monetary Policy Tone index developed from ECB documents, using text mining and Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques. This analysis allows us to objectively identify and track the relevant thehmes within the ECB’s monetary policy discourse.

Available in Spanish, English

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ECB Watch | Another step towards monetary policy normalization, as expected

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The ECB removed the easing bias on the Asset Purchase Programme. Macro projections remained mostly unchanged. Protectionism (re)emerges as a downside risk.

Available in Spanish, English

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Synthetic inflation indicator in the Eurozone, closing the gap in a sustained manner

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Unconventional measures taken by the ECB and the combination of several events on multiple fronts are contributing, in a very gradual way, to the pushing up of inflation, although it is a long way from getting back to the ECB’s target. Once the ECB is more confident on achieving the sustained adjustment on the path of inflation, it will adjust its forward guidance.

Available in Spanish, English

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The ECB faces a major challenge in 2018

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Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis, and in response to the subsequent European debt crisis, the European Central Bank (ECB) has adopted various measures to stabilise the economy and to aim at achieving its ultimate goal: price stability.

Geographies:Europe

Available in Spanish, English

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ECB Watch | The ECB strikes a dovish tone

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The ECB left its forward guidance communication unchanged. Renewed concerns over exchange rate volatility. “Very few chances” of a rate hike this year.

Available in Spanish, English

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ECB Watch: ECB on a wait and see stance

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There was no discussion on any change in the QE recalibration. The ECB seems more confident on the economic expansion. Significant upward revision of staff’s growth forecasts.

Available in Spanish, English

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ECB Watch: The ECB delivers a "down size" of the APP

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The ECB has opted for an alternative way to taper QE, downsizing monthly purchases to 30 bn euros. The Asset Purchase Programme remains open-ended, extended until September 2018 or beyond. The size of the ECB’s balance sheet and forward guidance will replace net purchases as the main tool for monetary policy

Available in Spanish, English

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ECB Watch: The ECB will go ahead with QE decisions in October

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Effects from euro appreciation and QE strategy dominate today’s meeting. After very preliminary discussion on alternative scenarios to calibrate QE, decisions will most likely be taken in October. The volatility of the exchange rate is seen as a source of uncertainty, but the new projections are optimistic: stronger growth and only a slight downward revision of inflation

Available in Spanish, English

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ECB Watch: Further steps in the autumn

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As widely expected, the ECB remained on hold, in a unanimous decision. The discussion on tapering of QE to take place in the Autumn, most likely in September. The ECB is paying “attention” to the appreciation of the euro

Available in Spanish, English

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ECB Watch: A first tweak in the forward guidance

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The ECB remove the easing bias on rates. Growth projections are more positive while the inflation outlook remains unchanged despite lower headline inflation projections. In September, we expect the ECB to open the door to tapering next year

Available in Spanish, English

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ECB closer to a neutral balance of risks

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There was neither a discussion on the exit strategy nor clear hints of an early shift in the policy stance but risks to growth are more balanced (though still downwards). We expect some changes in forward guidance in June

Available in Spanish, English

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Rising Libor is due to repricing and not distress

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Libor rate rise pushed by regulation driven structural changes in the U.S. money market. The spill-over effects in other regions have not been huge. However, hereinafter, international markets have to get used to more expensive financing in USD, which poses an additional risk for bank´s profitability in the current context of ultra-low interest rates

Available in Spanish, English