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Miguel Jiménez

Miguel Jiménez joined in 2007 BBVA Research, where he is chief economist for Europe. Previously he worked as an economist at the OECD Economics Department, where he contributed to reports on the Spanish, Swiss and Greek economies and on issues related to labour markets, immigration, pensions, competition policy and sustainable development.

 

He has been lecturer of Macroeconomics and Growth Theory at the European University of Madrid and has published his research on academic journals such as the European Journal of Political Economy and Applied Economics.

 
He is a member and has been chaiman of the Council of European Economists of the Conference Board, and takes part on other discussion forums such as the chief economists group of the European Banking Federation, Real Instituto Elcano, Bruegel and the CEOE Economics Council.

 

He holds a PhD in Economics from the European University Institute in Florence, a Masters Degree in Public Economics from the Institute of Fiscal Studies in Madrid and a BA in Economics from the Universidad Autónoma of Madrid.


Latest Publications

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What is being debated as regards the reform of the euro?

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Whether to share risks or reduce them. That is the leitmotiv behind the current battle over the reform of the euro, which is supposed to lead to a new initiative by June.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19

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Our MICA-BBVA model estimates steady growth in 4Q17 (0.6/0.7% QoQ). We revised up our growth forecast to 2.2% in 2018 given strengthened domestic factors and better global outlook. Our inflation forecast increased to 1.5% due to higher oil prices but keeping a view of gradual pick-up in core prices. We still expect a gradual normalization of monetary policy during 2018-19.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Widespread upward revision of growth forecasts in 2018

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Growth stabilized at high levels and recent data suggest an uptick in activity at 4Q17. We revised upwards our growth forecasts for 2018 to 3.8% (+0.3pp), driven by an improved outlook and boost from tax reform in the US, a more gradual slowdown in China and the strengthening of domestic demand in the EZ. Central banks continue with a gradual normalization process.

Available in Spanish, English

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A good year, with lots of doubts

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The year 2017 started with plenty of uncertainty for the global economy. President Trump had just been elected, the emerging economies were not doing particularly well and Europe was facing a difficult electoral cycle, with the memory of the Brexit referendum still fresh.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | The sustainability of the global growth is more evident

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Official GDP figures have been revised up in 3Q to 1.02% QoQ, which implies a higher projection for 4Q17 (BBVA-GAIN: 1.04%). Further gains in confidence are not fully reflected in hard data. Global trade recovery continues, but at a slower pace. Global headline inflation accelerated in November driven by volatile components, but core pressures remained subdued.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | GDP projected at 0.6%-0.7% in 4Q puts an upward bias to our forecasts

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Our MICA-BBVA model estimates a GDP growth at 0.6%-0.7% in 4Q, signaling a steady pace or mild acceleration. Confidence increased further in December to record levels. Hard data were somewhat disappointing in October, but these not seem to affect the underlying trend. Inflation increased slightly to 1.5% but the core measure remained stable and subdued at 1.1% in November.

Available in Spanish, English

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Europe is picking up on several fronts

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Nobody will have failed to notice that Europe’s economy is responding better than many had thought a little over a year ago, when there was not much faith in the sustainability of growth. Moreover, the outcome of the Brexit referendum and the problematical election schedule had increased the risks looking ahead into 2017.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | Improved outlook, still subdued inflation

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Our MICA-BBVA model suggests a steady growth pace in 4Q (0.6%/0.7% QoQ), so far supported by very strong confidence, with more mixed signals from hard data. Positive incoming data, mostly from Germany, pose an upward bias to our growth outlook. Both headline and core inflation eased and remain subdued in October, while our forecasts continue at 1.5% and 1.2% for 2017-18.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Global growth continues on a strong footing

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Global GDP growth slowed slightly in 3Q to 0.9% QoQ, but our BBVA-GAIN model suggests the solid global recovery continues in 4Q (1% QoQ). Confidence indicators improved further while industrial output and retail sales moderated in 3Q and global trade provided further signals of stabilization. Global inflation remained stable in October, accelerating in EM but slowing in DM

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | Higher growth and more subdued inflation in 2017-18

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Our MICA-BBVA model suggests a steady growth in 3Q17 (0.6% QoQ). We revised upwards growth forecast to 2.2% in 2017 and 1.8% in 2018 driven by strong data and domestic factors, although political uncertainty is high. Headline inflation forecasts are revised slightly down to 1.5% in 2017 and 1.2% in 2018. The ECB is likely to embark in a gradual normalization in early 2018.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | A more synchronized recovery

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Recent data point to a broadly unchanged global scenario (BBVA-GAIN: 1% QoQ in 2H17). Our new projections are unchanged for the US despite hurricanes and political uncertainty and indicate more positive outlooks for China and the Eurozone this year. Central banks continue their very gradual normalization process.

Available in Spanish, English

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May, Merkel, Macron

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The last few days have been filled with important events for the future of Europe, with positive and negative news at the same time, and an outcome that will depend a lot on the negotiations in the coming months.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | Growth expected to stabilize in 3Q on strong confidence

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Our MICA-BBVA model suggests a quarterly GDP growth figure of 0.6% in 3Q, but we cannot rule out a slight moderation given weaker hard data. Both industrial output and retails sales softened in July, while exports have also moderate during 3Q. In contrast, overall confidence data remain optimistic. Annual inflation accelerated in August to 1.5% with stable core measures.

Available in Spanish, English

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The global economy stabilizes and reaches a robust and synchronized growth pace

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Global GDP accelerated slightly in 2Q17 (1% QoQ) while recent data suggest that it could maintain its dynamism in 2H17 (BBVA-GAIN: 1%). Both industrial output and exports have disappointed at the beginning of 3Q, but forward-looking indicators suggest a still positive outlook. All in all, the global economy shows improved synchronization across major blocks.

Available in Spanish, English

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ECB Watch: The ECB will go ahead with QE decisions in October

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Effects from euro appreciation and QE strategy dominate today’s meeting. After very preliminary discussion on alternative scenarios to calibrate QE, decisions will most likely be taken in October. The volatility of the exchange rate is seen as a source of uncertainty, but the new projections are optimistic: stronger growth and only a slight downward revision of inflation

Available in Spanish, English