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Miguel Jiménez

Miguel Jiménez joined in 2007 BBVA Research, where he is chief economist for Europe. Previously he worked as an economist at the OECD Economics Department, where he contributed to reports on the Spanish, Swiss and Greek economies and on issues related to labour markets, immigration, pensions, competition policy and sustainable development.

 

He has been lecturer of Macroeconomics and Growth Theory at the European University of Madrid and has published his research on academic journals such as the European Journal of Political Economy and Applied Economics.

 
He is a member and has been chaiman of the Council of European Economists of the Conference Board, and takes part on other discussion forums such as the chief economists group of the European Banking Federation, Real Instituto Elcano, Bruegel and the CEOE Economics Council.

 

He holds a PhD in Economics from the European University Institute in Florence, a Masters Degree in Public Economics from the Institute of Fiscal Studies in Madrid and a BA in Economics from the Universidad Autónoma of Madrid.


Latest Publications

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Eurozone | Higher growth and more subdued inflation in 2017-18

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Our MICA-BBVA model suggests a steady growth in 3Q17 (0.6% QoQ). We revised upwards growth forecast to 2.2% in 2017 and 1.8% in 2018 driven by strong data and domestic factors, although political uncertainty is high. Headline inflation forecasts are revised slightly down to 1.5% in 2017 and 1.2% in 2018. The ECB is likely to embark in a gradual normalization in early 2018.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | A more synchronized recovery

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Recent data point to a broadly unchanged global scenario (BBVA-GAIN: 1% QoQ in 2H17). Our new projections are unchanged for the US despite hurricanes and political uncertainty and indicate more positive outlooks for China and the Eurozone this year. Central banks continue their very gradual normalization process.

Available in Spanish, English

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May, Merkel, Macron

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The last few days have been filled with important events for the future of Europe, with positive and negative news at the same time, and an outcome that will depend a lot on the negotiations in the coming months.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | Growth expected to stabilize in 3Q on strong confidence

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Our MICA-BBVA model suggests a quarterly GDP growth figure of 0.6% in 3Q, but we cannot rule out a slight moderation given weaker hard data. Both industrial output and retails sales softened in July, while exports have also moderate during 3Q. In contrast, overall confidence data remain optimistic. Annual inflation accelerated in August to 1.5% with stable core measures.

Available in Spanish, English

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The global economy stabilizes and reaches a robust and synchronized growth pace

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Global GDP accelerated slightly in 2Q17 (1% QoQ) while recent data suggest that it could maintain its dynamism in 2H17 (BBVA-GAIN: 1%). Both industrial output and exports have disappointed at the beginning of 3Q, but forward-looking indicators suggest a still positive outlook. All in all, the global economy shows improved synchronization across major blocks.

Available in Spanish, English

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ECB Watch: The ECB will go ahead with QE decisions in October

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Effects from euro appreciation and QE strategy dominate today’s meeting. After very preliminary discussion on alternative scenarios to calibrate QE, decisions will most likely be taken in October. The volatility of the exchange rate is seen as a source of uncertainty, but the new projections are optimistic: stronger growth and only a slight downward revision of inflation

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | Upward revision of GDP with a broad-based recovery

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Our MICA-BBVA model suggests that GDP growth could have improved again in 2Q (0.7% QoQ) as strong confidence has been met by better hard data. We have revised upwards GDP forecast for 2017 (by 0.3pp to 2.0%), though we continue to expect some moderation for 2018 (1.7%). The ECB is expected to embark in a gradual normalization of monetary policy. Political risk has eased.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Positive outlook, with projections revised across areas

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Robust and steady global growth in 2Q (BBVA-GAIN: 1% QoQ) with some rebalancing among the major areas. Confidence and global trade growth seem to stabilize at high levels, supporting the ongoing recovery of the industrial sector. New projections for 2017-18 are revised upwards in the Eurozone and China and downwards in US. Risks remain tilted to the downside.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | Growth momentum stabilizes in 2Q at high levels

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GDP growth was revised up to 0.6% QoQ (+0.1pp) in Q1, while improving industrial production along with very strong confidence suggest that the growth momentum will remain steady in Q2 (MICA-BBVA: 0.6%). Recently, foreign trade and retail sales have moderated slightly. Headline and core inflation declined in May, reversing the Easter calendar effect and remain subdued.

Available in Spanish, English

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What kind of Brexit can now be expected?

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A few weeks ago the majority of analysts were saying that Theresa May’s real motive in calling early elections in the UK was to strengthen her majority against the hardest wing of her party. This would have enabled her to accept “softer” conditions in a possible agreement on Brexit.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | The recovery shows signs of stabilisation

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Global GDP growth continues to improve in Q2 (BBVA-GAIN: 1% QoQ) but with signs of stabilization. Confidence data remain very strong, but are levelling off and the upward trend in exports and industrial output has moderated at the beginning of Q2. Moreover, the latest data suggest that positive signs are shifting from the US and China to Europe and other emerging economies

Available in Spanish, English

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G7, the weight of words

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The periodic meetings of the group of most developed nations took shape in the mid 1970s as a forum for discussing economic issues of global importance. At that time they dealt with major events such as the collapse of the exchange rate system based on the convertibility of gold and the dollar, or the Middle East oil embargo.

Available in Spanish, English

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Greece: three-way gridlock

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Grecia se encuentra en la segunda revisión de su tercer programa de rescate, que debería llevar al desembolso de un nuevo tramo de la ayuda financiera que servirá, fundamentalmente, para pagar vencimientos de deuda de algo más de 7.000 millones de euros en julio.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | The outlook remains positive as political risks ease

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GDP grew 0.5% QoQ in 1Q while soft data suggests higher momentum in 2Q (BBVAe: 0.6% QoQ) and foreign trade is strong. But industrial output and retail sales decelerated in 1Q. Inflation pressures are still distant as wages growth remains subdued. Despite the more upbeat outlook and the ease of political uncertainty, risks to short-term growth remain tilted to the downside.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global growth is still gaining momentum in 2Q17, but there are some signs of stabilisation

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Global growth accelerated in 1Q to 0.9% QoQ and 2Q data so far suggest further global momentum (1% QoQ). Confidence data remain very positive, especially for developed economies, while hard data point to higher investment. Moreover, the exports recovery remains on track, partly explained by upward trend in investment in recent quarters.

Available in Spanish, English