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Rafael Doménech

Rafael Doménech is Head Economist of Macroeconomic Analysis at BBVA Research and Professor of Economics at the University of Valencia.

 

Previously, he has been Director General and Deputy Director of the Economic Bureau of the Spanish Prime Minister (2007-8). As well, He has worked as external consultant in the OECD, the European Commission and the Fundación de Economía Analítica. He also has been director of the International Economic Institute and member of the Advisory Board of the University of Valencia. In addition, he has been external researcher of the Spanish Ministry of the Economy and Finance and the Fundación Rafael del Pino and member of Public Policy Advisory Group of UNESPA and Expert of the AVIVA Institute of Savings and Pensions. He was appointed by the Spanish Government as a member of the Expert Committee on the Sustainability Factor of the Public Pension System.

 

Fellow of the Spanish Economy Association. He has been member of the editorial boards of the main Spanish journals in Economics. Current member of the editorial committee of Monetaria.

 

He has published numerous articles in well-known international scientific journals on economic growth, human capital, business cycles, and fiscal and monetary policies. His most recent book on the Spanish economy, titled En Busca de la Prosperidad, has been jointly written with Javier Andrés.

 

MSc in Economics, London School of Economics and PhD in Economics, University of Valencia.


Latest Publications

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Uncertainty and economic projections

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The political crisis in Catalonia, and its effects on recovery, has in recent weeks cast a shadow over the economic debate, specifically now that the world economy and Europe are growing in a robust, stable and very synchronized manner. We stand before a situation without precedent.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Pensions, economic growth and welfare in advanced economies

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In this presentation we analyse the effects of pension systems on growth and welfare, seeking an efficient balance between contributiveness, distortions, incentives, and equality and insurance against risks. PAYG systems should remain a fundamental part of the welfare state, using notional accounts and minimum pensions to reduce inequality and the risk of social exclusion.

Available in English

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The Spanish Labor Market: Reform Achievements and Challenges

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We analyse the main characteristics of the Spanish labour market, its performance during the crisis, the macroeconomic effects of the reforms since 2012, and its challenges during the current recovery. High levels of unemployment, temporary employment and inequality call for further measures to achieve a more efficient, equitable and inclusive labour market.

Available in English

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Taxes, growth and social welfare

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As Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr. stated in 1904, and as appears inscribed on the façade of the US Internal Revenue Service Building, “taxes are what we pay for a civilized society”. However, it is difficult to answer the question of whether we pay too much or too little without taking into account what we receive in return.

Available in Spanish, English

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The effects of wage flexibility on activity and employment in the Spanish economy

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Together with Greece, Spain was the European country with the highest unemployment increase during the Great Recession, despite a fall in GDP similar to that in other economies. Objective of this paper: to quantify the macroeconomic effects of the changes in the labour market since 2012.

Available in English

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Fiscal Policy in Europe: Lessons from the Crisis and Options for the Future

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We analyse fiscal policy in the Eurozone during the last crisis in order to obtain the main lessons for the current debate on how to strength the European Monetary Union. We show that the interaction between uncertainties on national policies of countries with macroeconomic imbalances and an incomplete monetary union.

Available in English

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Budgetary stability and reforms: lessons from the crisis and challenges pending

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All the signs are that in the next few days Congress will give its definitive approval to the General State Budget for 2017 following intense debate. The pace and make-up of fiscal consolidation and the fiscal policy options have again been subjected to multiple amendments.

Available in Spanish, English

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Budgetary stability and structural reforms in Spain

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Budget balances and public debt in Spain showed clear signs of unsustainability between 2009 and 2011. Despite the fiscal consolidation implemented since then, the increase in public debt has also considerable costs in terms of GDP, employment and private investment.

Available in Spanish, English

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The Future of Employment

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The technological and digital transformation under way, known as the fourth industrial revolution, has given rise to intense debate about its effects on employment. Opinions are divided.

Available in Spanish, English

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The internationalisation and digitalisation of the portuguese economy

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Dual economy in which many firms do not promote the accumulation of human capital,innovation and trade in international markets. The size of firms and its determinants, product market regulations and the environment for doing business are of paramount importance. All this in a more globalised world economy undergoing an unprecedented and disruptive technological revolution

Geographies:Portugal

Available in English

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Budgetary stability and structural reforms in Spain

Document Number 17/11

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We analyse the fiscal policy lessons from the recent recession in the Spanish economy and the options for the future. Our results indicate that budget balance and public debt trends showed clear signs of unsustainability between 2009 and 2011, with few alternatives available other than reducing the fiscal deficit.

Geographies:Spain

Available in English

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Pensions and inflation: there are no free solutions

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In recent weeks, we have learned of certain initiatives to repeal the reform of the 2013 pensions system, its revaluation mechanism and the sustainability factor (which kicks in from 2019), as well as others to raise pensions by 1.2% in 2017, with a revision clause if inflation outstrips this figure.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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The effects of wage flexibility on activity and employment in the Spanish economy

Document Number 16/17

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In this paper we estimate the macroeconomic effects of the greater wage and firms’ internal flexibility promoted by various changes in Spanish labour regulations approved since 2012. To do so, we propose a structural VAR that allows us to break down the changes in the main macroeconomic variables into different structural shocks.

Available in English

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Comments to Global disinflation in an era of constrained monetary policy

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Inflation has declined substantially in a large number of countries as a result of persistent labor market slack and weaker import price growth (cross-border spillovers). Phillips curve residuals have tended to become larger: a sign that price setters’ inflation expectations have declined more than survey-based measures?

Available in English

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The Effects of Wage Flexibility on Activity and Employment in the Spanish Economy

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We estimate the macroeconomic effects of the greater wage and firms' internal flexibility promoted by various changes in Spanish labour regulations approved since 2012 and by the Second Agreement on Employment and Collective Bargaining. We propose a structural VAR that allows us to decompose the changes in the main macroeconomic variables into different structural shocks.

Geographies:Spain

Available in English