Head of Economic Analysis
Rafael Doménech is the Head of Economic Analysis of BBVA Research and Professor of Economics at the University of Valencia.MSc in Economics, London School of Economics. PhD in Economics, University of Valencia. Director General at the Economic Bureau of the Spanish Prime Minister (2007-8). He also has been director of the International Economic Institute and member of the Advisory Board of the University of Valencia. External researcher of the Spanish Ministry of the Economy and Finance and the Fundación Rafael del Pino. He was appointed by the Spanish Government as a member of the Expert Committee on the Sustainability Factor of the Public Pension System.Fellow of the Spanish Economy Association. He has been member of the editorial boards of the main Spanish journals in Economics. He has published numerous articles in well-known international scientific journals on economic growth, human capital, business cycles, and fiscal and monetary policies. He is author of two books on the Spanish economy: The Spanish Economy: A General Equilibrium Perspective (Palgrave MacMillan) and En Busca de la Prosperidad and La Era de la Disrupción Digital (Deusto).
The fall in GDP expected as a result of COVID-19 will be unparalleled in history. The decline in GDP per working-age population in 2020 is expected to be 10% greater than the decline seen in 2019, marking a return to levels seen in 2015.
Twenty years ago, the Spanish economy started its journey into the 21st century after joining the eurozone in 1999. Since then, Spain has faced two economic expansions and two intense crises of a very different nature, with important consequences for economic policy.
This Economic Watch assesses the structural shocks that explain the cyclical behavior of the Spanish economy during the COVID-19 crisis. For this purpose, we use information from the latest forecasts from BBVA Research (2020) which are exogenous to the model.