Sara Baliña

Principal Economist

Spain

Latest publications

July 24, 2019

Global Economic Risk Outlook. Third quarter 2019

This report presents an analysis of those global shocks, most of low probability, which may have severe effects on the economy. The balance of risks continues to be tilted to the downside due to trade tensions (impact on China) and increasing probability of recession in the US.

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April 8, 2019

Risk of economic anemia

The risk that the main developed economies are moving towards a regime of reduced economic growth in the medium term has once again gained relevance in recent months. It has been driven by the increase in the probability of recession in the United States and the eurozone, and the relapse of inflation expectations and long-term interest rates in both regions.

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February 7, 2019

Global Economic Risk Outlook. First quarter 2019

The balance of risks has deteriorated on the back of growth concerns in the US and China. A global trade war continues to be relevant despite the current truce, while a resurface of debt tensions in the Eurozone should not be ruled out yet due to high political instability. On a positive note, the U-turn in the Fed’s stance reduces the likelihood of overshooting.

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