Searcher
Seda Guler Mert
Seda Guler Mert
Principal Economist
Istanbul

Seda Guler works as a Principal Economist and has been within the team since the start of 2012. Her current responsibilities cover specifically the macroeconomic analysis of Turkey together with the update of several econometric models and the management of the whole team including financial stability, politics&geopolitics and quantitative analysis&economic modeling.

She made a major degree in Economics and a minor degree in Mathematics at Middle East Technical University (METU), Ankara. She also made her Master’s degree in Financial Engineering at Bogazici University, Istanbul.

Latest publications

The Central Bank of Turkey kept the policy rate at 19% in line with the expectations. Given the worsened inflation expectations, the CBRT repeated the need to decisively keep the current “tight” monetary policy stance. Thus we expect an easing cycle only very gradually in late 3Q and end the year with 16% policy rate.
Industrial Production grew by 66% YoY in cal. adj. terms in April, boosted by base effects. Despite the 0.9% MoM contraction, the slow down isn't clear, given strong momentum so far and upward revisions in global growth reinforce upside risks for our prudent 2021 GDP growth forecast of 5%.
Consumer prices increased by 0.89% in May, sizably lower than expectations, resulting in an annual inflation of 16.59% (down from 17.14% the month before). We maintain our year-end inflation forecast at 15% and expect the CBRT to start an easing cycle only very gradually in September.