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Seda Guler
Seda Guler

Principal Economist

Seda Guler works as a Principal Economist and has been within the team since the start of 2012. Her current responsibilities cover specifically the macroeconomic analysis of Turkey together with the update of several econometric models and the management of the whole team including financial stability, politics&geopolitics and quantitative analysis&economic modeling.

 

She made a major degree in Economics and a minor degree in Mathematics at Middle East Technical University (METU), Ankara. She also made her Master’s degree in Financial Engineering at Bogazici University, Istanbul.


Latest Publications

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Turkey: The Central Bank of Turkey designs a mechanism to mitigate FX volatility

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The CBRT announced yesterday they will start to auction foreign exchange (FX) hedging instruments to enhance tools to manage corporates’ currency risk. We elaborate the main goal of the new tool as to reduce the Turkish lira volatility by both enhancing liquidity and increasing financial depth in the currency market.

Available in English

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Turkey: IP Confirms Robust Activity in 3Q

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Industrial production growth was up to 10%, from 2Q’s 4.6%. Adding up to the previous year’s contraction our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY Index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 7.9% yoy (94% info) growth for 3Q. Our models suggest strong growth pattern in for the beginning of 4Q as well, in line with our 6% 2017 GDP growth forecast but with risks that could be on the upside.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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Inflation: Further Worsening over Core Prices

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Consumer prices increased by 2.08% (mom) in October, higher than the consensus (1.7%) and our forecast (1.9%). Annual consumer inflation jumped up to 11.9% from 11.2% on still worsening core inflation and renewed pick-up in energy prices.

Available in English

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The CBRT displays a more hawkish tone

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The CBRT keeps its interest rate corridor parallel to market consensus. The hawkish tone is preserved as the Bank continues to find both headline and core inflation outlook alarming over pricing behavior and tries to clarify its roadmap over the maintenance of the tight stance. We expect the CBRT to wait for some more room for monetary easing.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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Turkey Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

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Global recovery proceeds at a stable pace. Moreover, thanks to the Credit Guarantee Fund, Turkish economy continues to grow above potential, which leads us to upgrade our 2017 GDP growth estimate by 1pp to 6%. Additionally, higher momentum in economic activity and ongoing exchange rate pass-through especially from euro results in a higher inflation path.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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Turkey: Robust Activity in 3Q

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In August, industrial production (IP) growth came in at 5.2% yoy (cal.adj.) and retail sales index’ growth rate accelerated further. As August data signals further acceleration in the economic activity, our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY Index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 8.2% growth for 3Q (26% information for September).

Available in English

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Inflation: Another surprise from core inflation

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CPI increased by 0.65% (mom) in September. Annual consumer inflation, hence, rose to 11.2% from August’s 10.7%. Core inflation was the negative surprise, reaching 11%. Negative food inflation in contrast to its seasonal average avoided the headline to climb up further. We expect the headline to increase further before it reaches 10% at the end of 2017 with base effects.

Available in English

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The Central Bank of Turkey remains tight

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The Central Bank maintained its interest rate corridor once again parallel to our call and market consensus. The Bank keeps its hawkish tone as it also finds the high levels of both the headline and core inflation alarming over pricing behavior. We expect the Bank not to find room for monetary easing until the end of 1Q18, when the headline will fall towards 8-8.5%.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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Turkey: Robust 2Q GDP growth, as expected

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2Q17 GDP growth came in at 5.1% yoy, just in line with our expectation. Investment and private consumption were the main contributors whilst government spending contribution was negative for the first time in 9 quarters. We expect even a higher growth performance in 2H so risks on our 2017 forecast are on the upside.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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Turkey: Activity accelerates further

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Industrial production in July grew by 14.5% yoy (cal.adj.). Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 5.1% GDP growth for 2Q and hints even higher performance for 3Q. Considering also an acceleration in 3Q with both base impact and enhanced activity, we believe that the risks on our 5% GDP growth expectation for 2017 are clearly on the upside.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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Monthly Economic Monitor Turkey

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Our monthly GDP indicator signals 6% growth in July with available preliminary indicators (32% info) and acceleration will gain pace resulting in at least 7% growth in 3Q even if GDP would not grow at all on quarterly basis. High trend in inflation (around 11% until December) will force the CBRT to stay tight a little longer despite the recent retreatment in USD/TL.

Available in English

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Inflation: Outlook worsens on core dynamics

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In August, consumer prices rose by 0.52%, higher than the consensus (0.1%) and even our estimate (0.3%). FX pass-through mostly on the recent appreciation of Euro, second round price effects and spill-overs from the narrowing output gap continued to be the factors behind. We expect the headline to stay close to 11% before it would fall to 9-9.5% at the end of the year.

Available in English

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Turkey: Strong … and accelerating activity

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Annual growth in industrial production (IP) was 3.4% yoy in June (cal. adj.) confirming our robust economic activity forecast for overall 2Q, as IP growth in 2Q reached up to 4.5% yoy from 1Q’s 2.1% reading. Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 5.1% YoY GDP growth in 2Q. We think that risks are on the upside for our 5% growth estimate for 2017.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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Inflation: Core inflation implies risks on the upside

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Consumer prices rose by 0.15% in July, incrementally lower than the market consensus and our call (0.2%). Annual headline fell to 9.8% thanks to food and favorable base impact on tobacco. Looking ahead, we expect the headline inflation to breach 10% in August and stay at 10-11% levels till December before it would sizably fall towards 9% at the end of the year.

Available in English

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Turkey | Monthly Economic Monitor - July 2017

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Robust stance in the economic activity continued in 2Q, according to our nowcast. Inflation will ease further in summer on top of favorable base effects before climbing up again in 3Q. The CBRT strengthened its hawkish stance by keeping its interest rates intact and having the average funding rate hover above 11.9%.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

Available in English