Seda Guler Mert
Seda Guler Mert
Principal Economist

Seda Guler works as a Principal Economist and has been within the team since the start of 2012. Her current responsibilities cover specifically the macroeconomic analysis of Turkey together with the update of several econometric models and the management of the whole team including financial stability, politics&geopolitics and quantitative analysis&economic modeling.

She made a major degree in Economics and a minor degree in Mathematics at Middle East Technical University (METU), Ankara. She also made her Master’s degree in Financial Engineering at Bogazici University, Istanbul.

Latest publications

We introduce a set of Big Data indicators to mimic Investment in Real Time and High Definition. We use aggregate information of BBVA Big Data from firm-to-firm transactions and complement with individual-to-firm information. The results are successful and are validated through multiple robustness checks.
Industrial Production grew by 10.4% yoy in cal. adj. terms in August, leading to a fast recovery of near 7% in July-August after the sharp contraction of 17% in 2Q. Despite recent financial tightening, given the strength of the 3Q data and big data at the beginning of 4Q we believe that a 0% GDP growth is now more likely.
The Central Bank of Turkey raised the policy rate by 200bps to 10.25%. The CBRT justifies decision with the inflationary pressures coming from a strong path of the economic recovery (in line with our view) and supply-side effects due to the recent exchange rate depreciation.