Searcher
Seda Guler Mert
Seda Guler Mert
Principal Economist
Turkey

Seda Guler works as a Principal Economist and has been within the team since the start of 2012. Her current responsibilities cover specifically the macroeconomic analysis of Turkey together with the update of several econometric models and the management of the whole team including financial stability, politics&geopolitics and quantitative analysis&economic modeling.


She made a major degree in Economics and a minor degree in Mathematics at Middle East Technical University (METU), Ankara. She also made her Master’s degree in Financial Engineering at Bogazici University, Istanbul.

Latest publications

Turkish unemployment data is published with a significant delay (nearly three months), making it difficult to analyze the labor market in advance. In order to assess the evolution of the unemployment in high frequency, we have developed a dynamic model combining both the Business Cycle and Google searches for jobs.
Turkey´s economic recovery is gaining momentum and will accelerate in the second half of the year. The “V” shape recovery is in line with our expectations, leading us to maintain our GDP forecast at 0.3% in 2019 with upside risks and 3% in 2020.
Consumer prices increased by 0.86% mom in August, far below the consensus and ours (1.3% Bloomberg vs. 1.4% BBVA Research). Annual inflation decreased from 16.65% in July to 15%, the lowest level in the last 15 months. We maintain our year-end forecast of 15% with downside risks.