Seda Guler Mert
Seda Guler Mert
Chief Economist

Seda Guler Mert is the Chief Economist of Turkey at BBVA Research. She leads a team of economists having expertise on the macroeconomic analysis of the Turkish Economy, specific issues on the Turkish financial system, political and geopolitical analysis of the country, and quantitative analysis and economic modeling. The team conducts a new line of research on Big Data and Applied Economic Analysis in order to improve macroeconomic forecasting and real-time analysis of the economy in high definition.

She made a major degree in Economics and a minor degree in Mathematics at Middle East Technical University (METU), Ankara. She also made her Master’s degree in Financial Engineering at Bogazici University, Istanbul. She has taken different courses and received certificates on “Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting”, “Macroeconomic Challenges of Global Imbalances” and “Financial Programming and Policies” from IIF, LSE, and IMF, respectively.

Latest publications

Activity indicators signaled the continuation of weakness till late Dec22 but starting from thereafter early figures indicate the reversal of the recent deceleration. We forecast 5-5.5% GDP growth in 2022 and a very strong start to the year with near 2% q/q growth rate in 1Q23. We expect GDP growth to be 3% in 2023.
Consumer prices increased by 4.95% in June, slightly lower than market consensus (5.7%) and our expectation (5.5%), which resulted in an annual figure of 78.6%. We expect consumer inflation to accelerate above 90% in the coming months led by loose economic policies and significantly deteriorating inflation expectations.
Industrial Production continued to surprise on the upside and grew 10.8% y/y in calendar adjusted terms in April. If no substantial negative shock occurs, given the current pace, it becomes more likely to achieve a full year growth rate close to 5%.